With respect to the continuous large short position in silver--if these guys short contracts they are in essence borrowing what they don't have and therefore have to pay a rental fee for the borrowing. How can they afford to pay this fee for over 20 years? I could understand if they went short at tops and long at bottoms but that isn't what the data indicates. They are always short.
How can they afford this?
Yes, technicals can be very reliable once a fundamental analysis is verified and "baked in" to the share price. This will result in a trading range. At that point, technicals represent a statistical sample set against which one can make better than average predictions.
My reading, and now two or three months later I don't have a link, but my reading indicated GGs gold lies beyond the silver. The silver is sold to SLW, and the money GG receives for that silver pays the mining expense incurred on their way to the gold. Is this not correct?
"It is much like Silver Wheaton buying the silver from gold miners. The gold is glory but the silver pays the mining expense up to the point of actually mining the gold. That is why GG does business with SLW, there is no need to use the commodity market to short the price."
SLW's silver comes from copper and zinc mines. NXG's gold comes from a copper mine. GG's gold comes from copper & gold mines in Australia and a gold mine in Canada. As for producers shorting, that is nonsense, unless they are trying to drive down prices to buy cheap ounces to call in hedge contracts. Producers sell into the market. That's how they unload all the silver they have to sell. When it is reported that dealers are selling, most of that is new supply and not market manipulation. That would be counter to their vested interest in getting the most they can for the new production. It looks like shorting, drives down the price temporarily, but is really distribution of the new supply.
Fundamentals of why SLW will go up:
A. China's & India's increased need for all raw materials.
B. Silver's increasing (& non-recoverable) use in all sorts of products from clothing to technology.
C. Increasing demand for jewelry especially in India.
D. "Poor man's Gold. Silver as a storehouse of value to protect against the devaluing of fiat. I've read only 5% of the demand for Silver comes from investors so if that increases by only 5% (ETF?)
E. SLW's increasing stream of Silver from 10M OZ. to 15M than 20M giving increased profits & earnings per share.
A. Not a lot of new mines going on line in the near future
B. Comex Cot has never been net long so price of Silver has been held down artificially. Only after Silver becomes more profitable will a large new supply come on line
C. One of the people I listened to or read this weekend said investors hold 200 to 300 Million Ozs. & a little that has been stashed away has been being sold at these prices, but for every seller there are 5 buyers.
D. Unlike Gold, governments no longer have huge storehouses of silver they can dump on the market.
No doubt I left out all sorts of reasons SLW & Silver will go up. Still doesn't mean something can't become short term overbought & charts help me know that.
...it's not about "charts" per se...it's more about CHINA / SUPPLY / DEMAND (I was buying OMG when it was around $4...down from $60...and chartists said things looked bad...sell,sell, sell.... Well, ummmm, "charts go down...until they go up", right?...And OMG went from $4 to $40 in 18 months - I watch supply / demand...and China / India...
ps... when OMG was at $4 and everyone was beating it up, the 'STOCK SCOUTER' rated it a "1"...the worst of the worst...and when it went to $40, they rated OMG a "9" ...the best.
( I don't need people or charts to tell be where we've been...or where we are currently...but WHERE WE ARE GOING...and that's the bet...you have toi decide for yourself and "make the bet"...risk/reward.
GOOD LUCK TO THE CHARTISTS / TEA LEAF READERS / FUNDAMNETALISTS / GUESSERS / FOLLOWERS / CRAMERICA PEOPLE / ETC... I just wanna make some money...and have some fun...and indulge my "news hobby"...
Thank you, MARC !!! Finally, someone actually "gets" the NUMBER ONE RULE OF COMMODITY INVESTING...SUPPLY / DEMAND...Repeat that 3 times, all !! It's probably the BEST LAW OF ECONOMICS...THE STRONGEST ONE !!
And, given that the Silver ETF will "suck silver off the markets" and "increase demand / reduce supply"...ummmm..."daaaaaaaa" comes to mind....Helloooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.
If you don't get "this picture", you deserve "what you do get", in life...
He's a liar to boot. There's only one reason he would have picked that name. I just automatically put an imitator on ignore about 95% of the time as anyone that is that low doesn't need to be read by me. Of course to each their own - that's just me.
charts are basic to 95% of all professional trading that happens in this world. I don't know what world you live in, but try looking at charts this way:
the chart of the price over time is nothing more than buying and selling. So it is therefore an exact graphic transcription of "market sentiment".
The nature of a pattern is continuation. Changes of pattern in charts reflect (exactly) changes in market sentiment (sentiment is simply the average of all market participants "conviction" levels), and are very important "tells" when "confirmed" by a different pattern forming.
It's pretty basic, like taking a map on a road trip. do you prefer driving blind.