here's my take, would appreciate your opinion.
over the last 150 years a billion humans wallered into the 'modern' world and a commodity 'infrastructure' was built to accomodate their demand (developing countries consume a lot of stuff). Even so, there were often severe dislocations and interruptions e.g. the oil spike of the seventies and the gold run into 1980. Over the current thirty years twice as many people will make the same transition in a fifth of the time and the commodity infrastructure is going to be very, very, very overwhelmed. Add to that the factor that these commodities are in limited supply BEFORE we triple the 'modernaires' and it would thus appear to me that this commodity run will make those of previous years look pretty tame. At tnis point I would think calls for $2000 gold are incredibly short of the mark....not that it will happen overnight or without interruption....and i imagine the same will hold true for most commodities. whachathink?
...at Colorado Gold:
"Gold and silver aren't like housing. The housing market is going down, because of higher interest, a general decline in the economy, fools mortgaging themselves to their eyeballs, and ARM's coming due with higher interest, gas prices at $3 or thereabouts, and everything in general costing more in dollars, while wages have not kept up. They never do. Houses are a sort of permanent investment in which one can live. They can't be bought and sold like radishes in the summer, and aren't consumed like sweet corn. They are damned expensive as well, and as a matter of fact, far too expensive now in most cases. Gold may have been too expensive at $718, but we all know it will have to go back and further, because the presses won't stop printing those greenbacks, meaning that gold will go higher. Why won't houses go higher? Because they are in over-supply, aren't consumed, can't be stored in your safe or other safe place as a hedge against the ultimate inflation. When silver and gold are sold or used, it is rare for them to ever come back on the market other than to cash in when one needs dollars.
When they come back in, getting rid of them is simple and cheap. Getting rid of a house is very expensive, and one must have another to go to. The housing market is as far removed from gold and silver as is oil and water.
Sell your house, and you have to have another place to move into. Sell your gold, and you sleep in the same bed tonight. Sell your house, and you are either out in the cold or have to have another already bought or rented. Sell your house at a high price, and you will have to buy another at the same high price. Sell your house and rent another, hoping to buy another cheaper, and you are gambling with your abode, not your surplus assets. I admit it. I bought my home for $150,000, 15 years ago, and it is now worth $750,000. It isn't for sale, but if I did want to sell it, where would I go? I would have to buy another before I sold this one, and that wouldn't be cheap. Suppose I bought another and mine didn't sell? Suppose I couldn't get what I wanted for mine, and had already contracted for another? Real estate is for the birds, I believe. I am going to die in my 1887 Queen Anne, and I don't give a damn what happens to real estate. The thought of moving is absurd to me. They say that three moves is equal to one fire.
Homes have the personality of their occupants and owners, and these personalities, d�cor, etc may not please a possible buyer, making a sale difficult. Gold and silver have no d�cor or furnishings and are easily sold, moved, or transferred with no change in life style involved. Sure, a home is a hedge against inflation, and the interest on a mortgage is a deduction from your income taxes. I agree. But you have to live somewhere, and if one is smart, one buys a bargain in a stable neighborhood, pays a substantial down payment and gets the lowest interest possible. Some say that rent may not be saleable, but no lawns have to be cut, roofs repaired or replaced, no pipes fixed, and no furnaces to be cleaned. True, but I'd rather have a bunch of improvement bills paid, than a stack of rent receipts. When one rents, the landlord is supposedly making a profit. This can only mean it is costing you more to live in a rental than in a place you own.
Protect yourself by buying a wonderful home, and making it your own. Enjoy it and your neighbors. But when you have surplus assets, place them in tangible, easily bought and sold, and universally desired gold and silver, not pieces of paper with ink on them. How long will this correction last? I think it's over. We will see, won't we? Protect yourself."
Don't waste your time. That guy has issues. He types a lot of smack on here. He also seems to make it up as he goes along. Plus he has no respect for poor people like me. Of course that $400k home he claims to own would make a nice down payment on a house in Santa Barbara. LOL But who wants to live near the beach in SO Cal anyway? Oh wait almost everyone does it would seem. I did a little research BTW and looked into home prices in 1971 in NJ and found that most would be closer to $800k now not half that. In 1971 you could buy a brand new construction 2 story 4 bed 2.5 bath 2 car garage near Princeton (Kendall park NJ) for under $25K. They sell now for well north of $400K. Needless to say a house costing nearly double that in 1971 would be a really nice house or in a very elite area of NJ and valued well above $400K. I have learned to fact check mikeys posts since he started bragging about how rich he is.
I'm talking about things happening right now, not 35 years ago. Yes anybody who bought a house 35 years ago would do well and gold and silver were bad investments. But the reverse is happening right now. You're still not admitting that you were wrong about mortgage rates not being 20% back in 1980. Why? Because you don't have a clue. You always seem to look at things on the surface and think inside the box. I have no doubt USA is the best country in the world. Yes people from all over the world would beg to live here because things are much worse in their own countries and like you they don't have a clue as to what's happening here.
If you want a sign of where the top in housing market is....A playboy centerfold gave up her career to invest in real estate. That was in the news several months ago and I'm sure many have heard it.
I thought you once said you were like 50 years old. So you bought your house when you were 15 or so?
"investment of 40g 35yrs ago is worth over 400g"
It also seems strange that a house that was $40K in 1971 would only be $400K now. A $40K coop in NYC bought in 1987 a full 16 years later is worth over $700K now. Sounds like you made a poor real estate investment. A home in the Hamptons for $40K in 1971 would be almost $1MM now, or more if it was in the right spot.
How rich or poor anyone else is on here seems to be an obsession of yours. Why do you care? Rarely will anyone say how much they make or are worth on this board. I always assumed it was because most were wealthy or at least comfortable and also because they do not come here to show off. Just to talk about SLW and silver stuff.
Grow up dude.
So you want to own a home, aye? Well my opinion is buy one now while the prices are falling cause the interest rate is not going up much more and like my investment of 40g 35yrs ago is worth over 400g today so will your appreciate from todays levels. I was skeptical when i bought but we both work and we made it.
If this country is going down the drain how come so many chinese,mexicans, indians and japanese come here to live?
This is the best country to live in and will always be and the losers on this board who think diff are poor as dirt and thats why they think like that.
Gold and silver will never make them see there dreams. Just look and the master writer couplover who is so smart on the keys but is as poor as a church mouse and will always be.
You have a house you have equity, an investment that always will appreciate over time.
This is for you and all the rest of the skeptics.
I don't want to argue with you on this. There are websites that show explicitly the history of mortgage rates from WWII to present day. I was there when my brother financed his home at 14% back in 1982. Yes after 1980, rates began to fall and that's when the US stock market began to explode. It's hard to believe DJIA was at only 800 back in 1980.
I don't know where you get the idea that everyone needs to own a home. I would like to hear your arguments but currently everyone needs to own gold.