The lower dollar will mean many more of them being printed. Would you rather pay your debts in todays dollars or the dollar of a few years from now? As long as the debt stays more or less the same it becomes much cheaper to pay down debt with inflated dollars.Monetizing the debt will be the answer for the US.
Absolutely it is going to be the message not the hike everyone is watching. Beyond that though, and to me much more important, is the minutes of the meeting released a month later. Who said what and what was the level of discourse. Does Ben have control? Is there any type of consensus? These will be the important items IMHO.
Thanx for the kitco stuff. I looked but could not find it. I will try again with your map.
gr8, I agree that believing in too much "manipulation" takes ones eyes off the game. But logic is something that the market itself will eventually insist on. Sooner or later the market will show signs of following the path of reality. It always does. It just may take years to come around. Sooner or later though it will come around. Furthermore the FED is losing control of the USD as there are way too many out in circulation (not really circulation since they are held in reserves at CB's all over the world) all over the world. Our creditors will have the final say about our currency. Even our own beloved Greenspan (I believe it was him , maybe Volker) said " Our currency is YOUR problem". You can't have it both ways. When the dollar is rising you can not let the market determine its value but when it is falling expect complete control. Furthermore the US Treasury NEEDS A LOWER DOLLAR. To get out from under the debt.
Take heed of this post....pm's and mining stocks are floating right now until the fed meeting. If they raise the rate (which they will!) they are going to take another short term nose dive. That is why you'll notice volume is low and very little action going on with miner equities.
Since the last rate rise the cpi was worse than expected, I do expect another rise, and do expect a slight decline in PM, however IMO, I think the "PRICED IN" poster might be right in terms of actual price change in SLW, I think we will see, a higher base for it to fall from. Say 9.38-9.55 it will surly tip some from the next rise, but within a few days after the hike continue on its way up. IMO PM is at a bottom, everyone is expecting a slight sell off of PM, gold looks to close positive weekly, first time in 6 weeks. The ETF�s and many other large money has been taking advantage of these prices.
Personally I am not worried. We have incline confirmations. I plan the fed hike as a buying opportunity and think we will see a spike following the sell off.
In short yes I do expect a buying opportunity sell off the day before and the day of the fed announcement�.I also however expect the sell off to be a dead cat.