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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • marycharmin marycharmin Nov 26, 2006 5:21 AM Flag

    why i dont think the dollar will rally monday

    so a triple bottom has formed. some report the mich. cons. confid. report is what caused the dollar to react downward friday. i dont think so. i believe it was the market learning of the paulson AND bernanke trip to china plus the statements made by yet a second Chinese central banker. i believe the trip will be one requesting the chinese to not move too fast, so as not to annihilate the dollar. but sell dollars they will, diversification will come, and other countries will continue the run from the dollar.
    for this reason sunday night we may well see the currencies trade as such to create a gapdown from the triple bottom, and that bottom will become a long term resistance point rather than support. a quick monthending dip to old lows seem much more probable than the dollar having found support at the triple bottom. watching the early asian trade at 7 pm sunday night may prove beneficial to investors. silver could well gap higher, and same for gold.
    there has to be a reason for the drop in the dollar and they are too numerous to mention here. water seeks its own level, and i believe a drought appears in the dollars future. silver wheaton could well be trading at 15.00 by YEAREND.

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    • http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/baltin112506.html
      http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund112706.html

      I just read these articles, and I want to tell you, they scare me to death. This could really happen now. Gloom and doom, you'll say. I hope so - we don't really need this kind of melt down.

    • Is there any possibility that a derivatives position has been established that would hugely benefit China if the dollar collapses, one that could just about offset their dollar losses?

      That way they win the game and become the new King of the Hill.

      Can you speakee Chinee?

      • 1 Reply to moses_on_wall_street
      • What derivative(s) could offset trillions of US dollars? Second, who would be holding them? Well, actually, I can think of a possible answer. The only thing that's WORTH anything anymore is something finite and diminishing - natural resources. Found in Russia, Canada, and Africa. So if the Chinese are smart, they'll be investing those billions of dollars in these countries. excepting maybe Russia. Think about it. Africa. I imagine they can buy the place cheaply about now - now that AIDS has decimated the population and then some.

        Any way I look at this picture, it comes back to the same thing - the best thing for you and me to do is accumulate the same things the Chinese want - resources. Gold, silver, miners, uranium, oil. And the one thing that we still do well in the US -biotech stocks. There's always going to be disease, there will always be a market for medicines.

    • Scary article in Spiegel Online provides a window on why dollar has not yet crumbled:
      http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,440054,00.html

      America and the Dollar Illusion

      "The dollar is still the world's reserve currency, even though it hasn't deserved this status for a long time. The devaluation of the dollar can't be stopped -- it can only be deferred. The result could be a world economic crisis."

      Our current leadership (if you can call it that, maybe better to call it crony-ship) is playing with fire. Everybody is likely to get burned (except possibly PM investors).

    • What I'm wondering is why the Chinese are telegraphing their intentions re: the dollar. It's only going to hurt them if the buck nose dives. Whey wouldn't they try to gradually unfold their positions? It seems to me that everyone holding dollars will now try to dump before the others do, which will cause a run. I don't think the Chinese are ready to lose their biggest customer to bankruptcy. One scenario makes sense except for the timing, and that would be if they want their currency to become the new dollar - theirs or an Asian currency equivalent to the Euro; but as I said, the timing isn't right-it's too early. Of course, maybe they think that they have enough growth from within that they can produce and sell to themselves, their growing middle class, and no longer need the US. One thing's for sure - if they want to ruin the US financially, they can do it, and now would be a good time. Maybe they just declared economic war on us. If they did, we're gonna lose.Just my thoughts, I realize I could be totally wrong. One more thought: our government is clueless, helpless, and now I think they're scared. Hence the trip by Bernanke and Paulson. It's going to be REALLY interesting.

      • 2 Replies to rgrowden
      • "Maybe they just declared economic war on us."

        Is a very interesting supposition, in that for the Sec. of the Treasury and the Fed Chief, Paulson and Bernake, to suddenly take a trip to China, means they were informed of a Chinese change in monetary policy, that will be devestating to the US dollar. Otherwise these two nitwits would have continued to ride out the status quo.

        I agree that China really doesn't need to continue to bail out the US dollar. Their own growth will sustain them.

      • The Chinese and Mideast countries will slowly unwind their $$ positions. They may be radical and hate us, but their not stupid. Creating financial chaos immediately in the US will also create chaos around the world. Who will China sell to? When the US econcomy collapses why will we need as much oil? They will not commit financial suicide either. They will, however, slowly turn out of $$ which will slowly cripple the US at a measured pace. Gold and Silver and investment in European and Asian markets is the smart long term play.

 
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