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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • duhfuture duhfuture Nov 29, 2006 11:18 AM Flag

    I challenge you anti TA Wind Bags

    All we have heard form the anti TA gang is why TA can't work . So show all of us underlings how your hot shot methods work.
    Here is my prediction based on TA.

    Cupwith handle/Triple top forming if it completes pattern shows the next move going to $16.25. SLW

    Lets see yours and please state how you arrived at your prediction. Here is your chance to show all what studs you really are.

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    • the tulip bulb market and the enron are not effecient markets. in EFFECIENT markets (where unique risk does not exist) investors are rewarded for risk (risk defined as standard deviation of returns. the univerally accepted benchmark 'at this time' i would love to debate this definition as i concede it is lacking particularly as compared to terminat value ect, ect - but hey!..we're having so much fun with "effecient market" theory..why stop now <smile>)

    • Its extremely easy to prove, and TA has been repeatedly proven not to work. Here's the test:

      Have someone show you a historic graph of the first 6 months of any stock showing 2005 performance. Then use your magical TA skills to complete the graph.

      When you're done -- compare your fanciful artwork to the actual performance.

      This experiment was done over 1000 times in a Forbes study and found conclusively that there was no correlation between TA projections and actual performance.


    • I agree, although who can guess where the breakout will end up before it consolidates.


    • The ratio chart is predicting a major drop in SLW in the near future.$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p13651336845

      • 1 Reply to tooter_mcgrooder
      • I see charts that say SLW is poised to go much higher ( as high as $20) however those same charts show SLW way ahead of itself. Too far beyond its 200DMA. Yet MACD and RSI show room to go higher. If I was going to guess I would say the further ahead of its MA's SLW gets the greater chance for a pull back. However Silver is on the move and SLW will report strong again in Q4 so any pull back will be short lived. The best case I see would be some sideways base building so the 200DMA could catch up to the price. All that said, the charts (long term, I do not follow minute to minute charts. In fact I like weeklies over dailies to show a trend) I see are all bullish right now
        Charts are a great way to understand the PAST. They are a decent way to try and GUESS which way next. It is always a guess. Anyone that tells you they KNOW the next move is full of beans. No one can tell the future.
        PM's are still well entrenched in a serious, generational bull market. For my money I have stayed on and added on dips. I have never sold a single share except to exit a company in favor of another (i.e. sold BGO to buy more SLW).
        Those that need to trade in and out will find themselves on the wrong side sooner or later. No one is right all the time. Most are right about 60% of the time and that is all they need to do to be ahead of the game. Many studies have been done to show the gains of buy and hold versus timing. Trading stocks is best left to seasoned pros IMHO. I find a trend and stick with it. I have been saying this same thing on here for 18 months and it has held true.
        This PM run coupled with the USD slide will be reversed by the Paulson gang soon enough. They always step in to rescue the USD. The thing is it is becoming too difficult and too expensive to do all the time. The world is watching the USD very closely now and it will take actual strength to save it. That means higher interest rates and lower deficits. I do not see either coming soon. Not with the huge debt based society we have and the spending habits of our Govt. . No I see POG closing in on $700 and POS at $15.50 before the battle royal between USD and POG starts up again. USD goes closer to .80 before the battle. Based on those guesses I suppose I could sell a bunch of holdings when we get there but what if I am wrong and Paulson lets gold pop to $1200 before stepping in? Then I missed the fat part of the rise. No for me it is buy and hold until the LT trend has clearly changed.

    • Fund managers get a salary whether their fund is up or down.
      They are drawing on somebody else's capital. They are NOT
      professionals who commit their own money. Do you get it now?

    • All you need to know about investing has been summarized by the Chinese master Lao Tzu: "Those who know do not speak, those who speak do not know." He offered this investment advice three thousand years ago in the Tao Te Ching.

      What else can be said?

      • 1 Reply to anotherblitheringidiot
      • Very true.

        But I can't help trying to teach a man how to fish. (Or how not to fish in this case).

        To all those TA people out there, I'd like to recommend a very non-financial book for you that explains the persistent phenomena of TA among investors: Its called "The Demon Haunted World" and its written by Carl Sagan. It was his last, frustrated attempt to cajole people into ignoring superstition, astrology, and the unprovable in favor of that which is mathematically and scientifically provable.

        Its a wonderful and sad book all at the same time.

        Mythology has a way of persisting.

    • Look at KBX

    • LOL.

      Ok. First off, you're looking for easy answers. There aren't any.

      What you need, sir, is an education. So here's what I'd suggest.

      First you'll need to understand some basics of Macro Economics. I'd suggest reading Paul Krugman's first year Princeton U. Economics text, "International Economics Theory and Policy". Its probably the best textbook survey of global macroeconomics there is. Then I'd study a bit about monetary policy: Keynes (You can try the "General Theory" but its heavy reading. I'd start with "Essays in Pursasion"). and the more conservative Mises school. (I'd start with "Epistemological Problems of Economics", and "Liberalism" is good too.). Try reading some books on monetarism. Milton Friedman's Monetary History of America is good but its a slog. I'm sure there are some shorter, more abbreviated texts on monetary theory and policy -- but I can't name any off hand. Then lastly -- I'd read "Globalization and It's Discontents" by Joseph Stiglitz.

      When you're done -- you could have all those books read in a couple months, max -- you'll have a profound understanding of where the world is headed, and why paper money is, well... for suckers.

      Then you should stop trying to "time the market" like a wet-behind-the-ears newbie, and start investing like a man. Think long-term. Make strong educated choices. And grow wealthy.

      There are no shortcuts. There are no easy answers. There is educated investing, and there is gambling. Those who don't know the difference fall into the latter category. And you know what they say about 'a fool and his money'.

      For every kid who plots a chart and makes a profit (and I mean *exactly* 1 for every kid) there is a kid who does the same thing and loses.

      Its not about "Putting up or shutting up". Its about silently knowing you're right.

      I am. You're not.

      • 3 Replies to stockmaster2003
      • Funny Mr. Right, your silence was about 6 paragraphs long, lol!!
        I'm new to the market but I've done rather well "trading"
        the past two years. I guess this means look out next year.

        The trick is to find a Bull market/story and use TA to time
        your buy in. 1-1/2 yrs. ago it was oil tankers. Lately, precious metals. Next? I do not know yet.

        I started trading SLW back in March and have made basically $7 / share by trading.
        bought at $6, sold at $7 - 3 days later.
        bought at $8, sold at $11.50 - held for about month
        bought at $9.50, sold at $12 - held for about 3 months
        bought at $11.25....

        Consider if I had simply held my original position I'd only be up $5 and change.

      • Interpreting ta is like interpreting religion, meaning its all bias. Also ,why all need to boast?

      • oracle_of_rodent_park oracle_of_rodent_park Nov 29, 2006 12:46 PM Flag

        In your case, it is about silently being half right. Professional traders make money consistently, because they
        understand charts, technicals, and fundamentals. I make money EVERY year and I churn my account. Well, let me qualify that I have money every year for the last 11 years. far outpacing any investor. Gamblers are not successful
        because they do not invest or trade with the probabilities
        in their favor. ie, they don't use technical analysis, and have poor insight into economic fundamentals.

    • Here is news for your kiddie. Not all stocks that form cup-with-handle go up.

      This cup-with-handle is an elvis or a yeti sighting.

      CONFIRMED PM BEAR market.

      More SLW dilution coming by way of glamis silver from GG. And more SLW stock sales by GG.

14.46+0.28(+1.97%)Oct 9 4:01 PMEDT