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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

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  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Dec 31, 2007 1:17 PM Flag

    Gold in 08 will move to 70:1

    I first started posting on this board back in the beginning of 2005, and I've held some and traded some this entire time. Although I've watched these boards I went over to stockhouse boards but the discussions have dried up so I think I'll come back.

    I guess I have 3 or 4 points, the best for last:

    1)He's right about the ratio, but I remember it once going to about 44:1 and the fact that its back at 56:1 is something that happens over time. If you check historical charts silver may lag 3-6 months behind gold but then whip back to a more dominant position. Dig out a 1979 chart and, or look over the last 5 years and you'll see it from time to time, this lagging behavior. The lagging also seems to happen late in the year and pick up in the beginning of the new year. Check seasonally adjusted average charts on silver.

    2)On the statement that shortage is not occuring: I buy physical bullion as do a few of my friends across Canada. Usually 100 oz bars. I have two suppliers in Toronto, and my friends have them all over the country. when I first started a 100oz bar took 3-4 business days for delivery once ordered. I started in 2004. Today, it takes 10-15 business days. Therefore, suggestive of drying supply.

    3) Still on statement of shortage, via something I posted on stockhouse board:

    <There has been a SIGNIFICANT shift in China usage of, and regulations for silver.

    "China releases silver, platinum and palladium trade statistics for October -
    Shanghai. November 22. INTERFAX-CHINA - Statistics released today by China's General Administration of Customs show that China imported 4.71 million kilograms of silver between January and October, up 64 percent from the same period last year. "

    What does this mean boys and girls??? besides a great christmas present for SLW holders into 2008...


    Doing the kilogram to ounce conversion, 166.4 million ounces of silver was imported by china during this years first 3 Qtrs, vs last years 101.5 million ounces of silver. This means 65 million "more" ounces of silver where brought into the country for 3 Qtrs, translating into 86.6 million more ounces of silver for the year. The silver ETF has about 145 million of ounces held, or maybe loaned out, but China's consumption is UNDENIABLE!!

    Soooo,..., after this significant increase in usage, China follows up by changing the laws, allowing more silver into the country...

    "-China lifts restriction on silver imports -
    Shanghai. November 30. INTERFAX-CHINA - China lifted restrictive regulations on high-purity sliver imports that were in place for the last eight years on Nov. 19 this year, the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, and the General Administration of Customs announced yesterday. "

    http://www.interfax.cn/displayarticle.asp?aid=30144&slug=CHINA-METALS-SILVER

    http://www.interfax.cn/displayarticle.asp?aid=29910&slug=CHINA-METALS-SILVER

    I think China was an exporter of silver the previous year and this year they are now net importer. BIGGEST supporting reason for shortage coming or already here.

    Good Trading
    Chemaes

 
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