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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Dec 31, 2007 1:38 PM Flag

    Silver demand/supply info ==ratio improvement

    Posted originally in beginning 2006, I think..
    The Silver Report from GFMS
    � Says this is the 17th straight year that supply has been running at a deficit to demand.
    � Supply =mine output + recycled scrap
    � Total demand 864.4 million ounces
    � Total mine supply 641.6 million ounces
    � Total scrap supply 187.3 million ounces
    � The deficit is 35.5 million ounces per year
    � In world stock we have 222.8 million ounces
    � If we assume the ETF eats another 70 million ounces, then (222.8- 70)/ 35 deficit/yr = 4.35 years before stock piles of silver COMPLETELY run out
    � The last bullet assumes, foolishly, that the demand for silver will not grow greater over the next 4.35 years.
    � You should see the smile on my face right now. Maybe 4 years to retirement�lol..
    My mistake relates to my failure in not assuming another 1 or 2 silver ETF's will come online within the year. [iShares 160 million increase is like another new ETF]

    When the gold etf was launched, two or three others came online within a year. This will happen with the silver etf's too. It seems only logical. If we have another 1 or 2 silver etf's online between this year and next, they will consume the remaining 150 million ounces easily. THEREFORE, WORLD SILVER WILL HAVE RUN OUT THIS YEAR OR NEXT.

    Hopefully I'm not beating this to death, but said again: "Silver is more rare than gold". Silver is consumed as an industrial metal and once gone, that's it. All the gold ever mined is still around.

    Revising the 8th bullet above: 100 million in the silver trust now. It has old capacity of 30 million more ounces to be added plus this new 160 million ounces from the iShares, meaning 190 million ounces are going to likely be consumed within a year to 1.5 years if we see accelerated interest in this vehicle, which makes perfect sense. I ask my friends, who are greedy as hell and always looking for the next investment, if they know what a ETF is? They say Huh? Imagine when the heard finds out.

    (222.8 million - 190 million) / 35 million deficit/yr= 0.9 YEARS SUPPLY OF SILVER LEFT PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!

    HA, HA, HA, HA, years to retirement may have just been shortened by 75%.

15.24+0.40(+2.70%)Feb 12 4:00 PMEST