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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Jan 7, 2009 10:31 PM Flag

    Targets

    I engage in short trading all the time, its just my preferance to not short trade SLW. If i believe Slw is engaged in a correction, I usually do not post.

    Most times, I post when I believe SLW is resuming an upward trajectory.

    Although I don't engage in discussion while SLW is falling, I will tell you what my buy in prices would be on this fall, maybe at risk to myself because I will place fill orders in this area.

    US $5.05 to $5.10 is the first buy in point.

    The second point, its least likely to fall below, is $4.68 US to $4.57. I might put a buy in here hoping for a miracle that it will be filled. Please do your own DD.

    I believe the dollar may have finished its dead cat bounce to fill the gap. If this is the case, tomorrow will see a penetration through 82.1 on the dollar index. If the dollar index penetrates 82.1 downward tomorrow for more than 15 mins, any shares that you can buy of SLW at any price will be the last opportunity you'll have to jump on this wagon.

    If the dollar however does not penetrate this price. wait for the previous prices mentioned.

    If you dislike posts of those on this board, please use the star rating system to voice your displeasure.

    someone posted something with my ID related to Gaza and sheep. Out of respect for my Arab and Jewish friends in the region I would ask that you demonstrate more sensitivity to a conflict that is absolutely dreadful and disheartening by the people living it.

    Good trading
    chemaes.

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    • Yup, DOW at 6000, which means SLW below $2 and that would be a great buy and hold time for SLW.

    • chemaes: Thanks for the insightful valuation of SLW. Have you looked into their debt, the provision that states they must pay back principal of 90% of their cash balances makes me hesitate. What do you think? Bernie

      • 1 Reply to pinball777
      • It really depends on your outlook for silver prices. The company, numerous articles, and numerous analysis have come out saying that SLW is safe so long as the price of silver doesn't drop below $9 to $8 for more than a quarter or two.

        A few years ago i came across an analysis named Adam Hamilton, and he appeals to me because of his technical analysis abilities.

        http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton011808.html

        With the info in this article and just looking at a long term kitco chart, you'll see that 8-9 silver is a floor created over the course of decades and it is with this, maybe foolish, understanding that i base my actions. Silver isn't likely to fall into the area that causes silver wheaton problems.

        On the USD dollar: I'm not sure how it will work out but I'm going to trust something I've witnesses hundreds of times. The USD dollar formed a head and shoulders over two months, and it failed downward from that pattern. I don't think I have ever seen the failure of a head and shoulder pattern followed by the pattern breaking above those 3 peaks within 6 months. Never. If the US dollar breaks above those lower shoulders on the head and shoulders it will be something I've never witnessed in looking at patterns. 85 is the extremely strong resistance facing the dollar index, I'm gambling it doesn't break above, therefore gold starts a resumption back upward in line with your new president taking office.

        I may be wrong, but we'll see
        chemaes

    • well, with that dollar reversing up, these targets don't look so crazy now. I am filling orders with my 15% around here.

    • My friend any serious discussion on what's happening with SLW, will not revolve around a 3 year chart.

      good trading
      chemaes

    • http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLW&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p98847513723&a=157009971&listNum=1

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p07803358426&listNum=1&a=158578642

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p60295088949&listNum=1&a=158578651

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p11539102120&listNum=1&a=158578690

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p40611247033&listNum=1&a=158578740

    • The moving averages are catching up, so roughly, if you still are bottome fishing, you would have to raise the 5.1 price that I gave before by about 20 cents, similarly with any previous buy prices I gave.

      At the end of the day any price in between here, 6.2, to 5.30 is pretty good IMHO.

      not sure I'll be around tomorrow, my daughter and I have big plans.

    • When you go to freecharts,commodities, dollar index, intraday, then select the march contract buy selecting the C at the end of the row to see the chart

    • I just picked up 5100 shares at $6.02. SLW been highly recommended by Frank Barbera of the GOLD STOCK TECHNICIAN newsletter as well as others. GLTA.

      • 1 Reply to wharfdaddy
      • Something isn't quite right with SLW price action. If it doesn't close above say $6.30 US, this downward trend is still in effect and I would hold off buying.

        Both PAAS and SSRI are indicating they are more likely to have resumed an upward trajectory.

        Why this action with SLW causes me concern is because SLW often acts as a barometer of what is actually going to happen. Wathcing into the close...

    • I thought the star means your post is good?????

      Oh my god, I just gone through such a ride. I vow I will not day trade again, specially not in dow stock. I bought drys yesterday at 14.27 thinking I can make a short term profit for lunch. It tanked to 13.75 all the way. This morning tanked some more to 13.20 something. All the nightmares of day trading came back. I have to mentally keep telling myself, the time is different, we are not in crashing time, it will bounce back. I managed to sell at 14.50 today, and I'm out. Man, I don't have the conviction with the dow stocks as I do with the metal stocks. All this is caused by my active trading of the day before. That little unsettling emotion made me do this clicking that I so much wanted to avoid.

      So, I told my girl friend last night hold on to the metal stock. I am happy to see that all the spot prices were up. Specially platinum. And the strange thing is my platinum stock SWC is down. I have no idea except chuck it to the manipulation, or what goes up must come down. After I got out of DRYS, I bought another boat load of SWC since it was in red. I'm beginning to believe this guy's theory that there are such large # of shorts hanging over this stock, that they don't dare to cover right away, so whenever they cover we have a squeeze. I have been doing well selling on the squeeze so far. But ultimately I'm hoping we are going up on our own merit. Platinum hasn't reached the proper ratio with gold yet.

      There was a Chinese saying: when the water falls, the stone shows. Meaning you then will see the truth. Yesterday was a water fall day. What I saw was gold dropped the fastest, and silver followed, and platinum rose. The truth is among all these PM, probably it's a safer bet with platinum.

      So much for my BS. Just wanted to support your post. (And, of course there's always a motive of pumping a little bit:))

    • No where close to your buy points of $5.10, $4.68 or $4.57. To get to these prices, IMHO, the price of Silver has to totally collapse and that is not going to happen...

      • 2 Replies to elcaribes
      • I recall a poster getting grilled for claiming to short SLW at $14 US. Nobody on the board gave SLW a chance of falling through support.
        "We've hit bottom" & "SLW is a gift at these prices" & "You're an idiot for shorting" were common replies. I cautioned the board to cut the guy some slack & wished GLTA.
        Hmm, looks like all the luck was that shorter's.
        As far as TA goes for SLW, I posted a couple weeks ago that I was looking for a solid floor of 4.75 to be tested before we enjoy a sustainable run through the $7 range & I still feel that way. (Barring any major news).

      • He sees gaps....$4.50 could hit easy...sucks but
        Chart says ....It could ,Fast
        Remember the deflation arguement
        And mid east peace
        I kid sorta
        But ill bet we test $5.50 again today
        Im paranoid
        And going back to bed....

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