At the risk of totally embarrassing myself, I have gone to completely cash today. I don't think the market valuations can be sustained any longer.
I have always been skeptical over technical analysis, including Elliot Wave theory, BUT.
It could just be a coincidence that the news fundamentals are so awful, and so out of synch with the broad market performance in the last few weeks, and that wave theory (according to others who better know how to read the chicken entrails) supposedly is indicating a sharp reversal at the current market index level we have right now, TODAY.
I know in my gut that gold and silver are going to be the best investment for the rest of this year. But in the short term, like the next few weeks, I think that there will be no place to hide, and nothing better than cash.
I get no joy in this attitude. When I think of all the Americans who will be hurt by this, and the possibility that my own business (not in investing) may take an enormous hit this year, it is truly frightening.
God help us all, if what I think will happen, does.
<<At the risk of totally embarrassing myself, I have gone to completely cash today>>>
I went to half cash today. I have to admit I'm scared about monday too. Once the big heads start digesting and spewing numbers over the weekend I could see a mess on monday.
I don't know if any of you have looked at charts from the great depression era. I was comparing now to then and now looks a lot worse in the same time frame. Of course the slide was steady for a few years then (after the initial crash) and we are in the early stages of this,,,whatever.
Back then the US was self supporting and self sustainable, there was enough food produced domestically to more than feed ourselves. A much different story now.
If you are in gold & silver stocks, you have less to worry about from a market turn down. Fiat currencies are backed by nothing. Gold & silver are real money, and will always hold value.
AUY & SLW are my MAJOR holdings.
Rebecca I'm no expert but a simple is to keep your eye out for a high that consolidates. It's easy to hope its just a lull before another uptrend, but if anything happens like the a crossover of the moving averages, like the 200 crossing above the 50 last summer while SLW was in the $14 dollar range, looking at a one year chart (opinions wanted). Right now the 50 has not yet crossed above the 200, but the stock is trading above the 50 and headed that way, maybe soon after earnings (opinons?). If we don't reach that level then maybe we'd look for the 50 to be crossing up over the 13 or 20 EMA - right now it's comfortably under(opinions?). If we're headed for another disastrous hit to the market, maybe it will be towards the end of spring and we'll have had a nice run and be out. I've asked stockyard to give us a code warning post if and when he thinks its really time to get out of the market altogether, "I think the time has come", but he hasn't agreed to do it. Can't blame him :)!
Watch out below! The VIX is 1/2 since last fall, the banks are making their little pop, precious metals had their rally, talking heads pumping . I'm not getting burned again. I'll stick with option straddles and protective puts. I'm not betting either way, I'm only betting that we will not be in the same place, with the same prices one month from now.
PS: I do see silver being horded, but many are into gold now...if they run out of gold quickly, then silver will get hurt as well. I don't want to revisit last fall's fall.
Right, this is Bear Market Rally, which runs higher on bad news, and on good one it will start new leg down.
Look at Williams oscillator, when it gets above -20% and go
down under, this is time to get out. It seems we still have
several days to enjoy.