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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • shenjee shenjee Apr 21, 2009 4:52 PM Flag


    I'm scared. What are the chances of being right for so many times? Anybody? Seasons, you are a swing trader, you tell me.

    Ever since SWC dropped from 5s to 3s, I got mad. I think that's only about 2 months ago the most. I began to use margin and traded my way back. I averaged about 40 cents a share. My basic principle is if I loose I don't sell, I'll wait until I gain. The reason behind is we are at the bottom, no more 100 dollar drops over night like AIG and the like.

    There were some bad days where I have to bite my teeth and wait. However, I got several big brakes. One is FRE, bought in the 70 cents range and sold in 1.20 range. That was just over night. Then I got in F for about 60 or 70 cents gain. Then the next lucky one is DRYS got in at 5.5 and out at 6.4. Last friday I jumped back to slw, I didn't sell yesterday because I got greedy I wanted more than just 20cents gain. However I've been eyeing TCK for so long, I couldn't resist to buy TCK. I bought at 7.6, and then Dajavue, the thing tanked below 7 after market. Oh my god I didn't know they were due for report. The feeling of tanking is all too familiar. So I have to go back and gather my strength at the basic principle. Don't sell until profit. Never in my wildest dream that the thing will come back mid day to above 10. Yes, I've thanked god, I've thanked the good fortune, and thanked my lucky angle. But seriously is this just luck, and that I should just stop like a good gambler should be, or is there something more and that I should keep going?

    Is everything as random as it seems? I've never read the bible from beginning to end. As a matter of fact, I've only read the first chapter the Genesis. I'm not a religious person, but I did see a play called "Jobe" in a gloomy day at a lowest time of my life. It was purely coincidental that I ended up in that play. I was skeptical then. No one could ever bounce back from Jobe's position. Boy that was many years ago, maybe 7 or 8. It made an impression on me even tho I didn't believe in the ending, I could totally empathize with Jobe for the process he has to go through. For I myself is going through the process. I have nothing to rely on but my sheer will power.

    Oh well, I just realized there's limit on the byte size for this place. To make a long story short, can anyone really deny that there's a divine power? I am pretty damn scared.

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    • Join the crowd! I lost $3500 over the last four trades and am scared to touch another key on my board. I have decided to chill for a while. I am going to look at some distressed properties tomorrow.
      This market has a real way of getting back from you what you gained. Haven't figured it out yet but definitely think it is designed to steal your money! Ever heard that day traders rarely make money? Perhaps it is because they ALWAYS lose their gains- strange but true how it works.

    • shenjee,

      IMO it's important to diversify. That is why I can sleep well at nights. I hold a wide range of stocks as a diversified base, and then have focused on a few market sectors including the PMs and the PGMs. I now hold about eight stocks within the PM and PGM sector. Often, while several are heading downward, others will be moving higher. I sell into the strength when they are heading higher and buy when they are being hammered down. It works for me. I believe that silver stocks will be heading much higher in the months and years ahead. But they are not the only sectors in which to make money. Selected solar stocks, bank stocks(be careful here), and emerging pharms are three interesting sectors. Good luck to you as always. SS

      • 1 Reply to seasonedspec
      • To be honest Shenjee, I was going to ask you how you do it; so many ins and outs of so many different stocks. I was in absolute awe (and a little envious to be honest about it).

        I'm like you and Patriotsky and a few others here, I NEED TO MAKE MONEY as nothing else is working; my small company (just me) involved in the construction industry is in the tank! And I do mean the tank.

        I know I should be more diversified, but I stick with the PM's because like Pat, I don't mind holding them if I make a wrong bet (yes, it is like gambling but here there is an underling backing that cards don't have). But at least I know if I am wrong, the PM's will come back, the good ones that is; yes, I've had a few stinkers and now stay away from anything I do not consider top tier; the lower tier stocks can wait until we are in a PM mania, and I do believe it will come, sooner or later, that's the problem too; when will it happen.

        Like you, I got tired to taking small losses. The only problem is, I can't make too many wrong bets or I'm dead in the water while I wait for the stock to come back. And that really makes me nervous.

        Patriotsky (along with many others sharing their knowledge) has been a great help with his chart knowledge, but the trick is learning to read them correctly and I'm working mightily on that.

        Compared to other boards, this really is a great board and I’m willing to put up with the BS (separate the wheat from the chaff) for the rest here. And I even admire people like Hedge, who can be a little abrasive at times (and I do understand his dislike of "We're going to the moon" posts with no backing), but instead of just telling us to get out the KY, he at least tells us why he posts what he posts, and his reasoning is good. To not at least listen to the opposing side is plain stupid in my opinion; reminds me of a former US President.

        By the way, to me, the thing about luck is in most cases you gotta make it happen; you gotta stick your neck out and take risks, which is what you have done. On the other hand, your luck gets better when you make calculated risks. Calculated risks take knowledge and experience. That is the part I’m trying to work on. You showed up. The rest gets easier over time or so I am told.

        I think you have done damn good; wish I had your balls. LOL ;-)

    • like a frog on speed, leaping around from lily pad to lily pad as if chased by pirahnia, is what's making you nuts.

      I spent the whole day trading FAS the triple financial ETF, which rallied on Geitner's bullcrap, and will be sorely surprised on Friday when the data hits the fan.

      Nonetheless, I id'ed the channel and traded thirty K all day, three trades and made a grand.

      I'm DETROYED and wringing wet, and reminding myself how smarter it would have been, to buy the ETF as low as I could muster, and immediately pop a May call just in the money for a potential 20% gain if the ETF ends in any part of a range of almost two dollars, and just sit on my hands.

      That's what I did with SLW. I own it at about $7.82, I've sold three sets of covered calls against those shares, and have about $1.20 jingling around in my pocket. That means I own the sucker at about $6.62 of my money.

      But I didn't stop there, I sold some in the money $7.5 calls due Sept for $1.48. The stock sunk below $7.50, but the calls are sitting there four days after I set up the position, at $1.30. At the end of the trail circa August-ish, I will trade out of those calls for pennies on the dollar, pack another $1.25 in my pocket, and run the whole scam all over again due January or December for another $1.25 or so.

      That's five bucks a year on a seven dollar committment, and I don't have to have hypertension, or come away from the console wringing wet, as I am now, my eyes stinging with salt water.

      And yes, if I'd been playing with $300K for those three round trips today, I'd have walked away with $10K in my pocket instead of $1K mad money.

      I just can't risk the heart attack, even if I can do three to four passes in a row consistently. Who's going to spend my money, heirs and assigns?

    • You are doing fine, quick surgical trades. Are you using any charts with your buying decisions?

      Keep doing what you are doing IMO. Take a bunch of quick profits, and they add up big overtime. I'm trying to do the same thing, but the last two trading days, I have been to busy to follow the market closely. Which is why I am in PMs. They may go down in the market, but they cannot be held down forever. PMs are a hard asset with global demand.


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