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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • jawz_2020 jawz_2020 Sep 22, 2009 1:20 PM Flag

    Bulli$h Ca$e for $ilver & SLW pt 1

    "The major monetary metal in history is silver, not gold."
    - Nobel Laureate economist Milton Friedman

    BULLISH case for SILVER going forward has many reasonable argument$.

    (to make LINKS hot, copy & paste into your URL browser address line, then remove the "spce" before the "dot" preceding "com")

    WHY IT IT ABSOLUTELY IMPERATIVE TO OWN PRECIOUA$ METAL$:
    {"if you bought the S&P 500 on December 31, 1999
    you're down 50%, in terms of U.S. dollars."
    And next to gold, the comparison is even worse,
    "you're down 79% in the last 10 years."}
    http://tinyurl .com/o85afh

    Silver's outperformance over Gold bodes well when Gold breaks out

    Despite the hoopla last week over Gold @ $1000,
    when you view Gold price against the USD Index, we have not yet broken over March '08 resistance at around 14 or so...
    http://tinyurl .com/lmfe2l

    SILVER HAS HIGHER VOLATILITY THAN GOLD,
    GIVING IT FAR GREATER UPSIDE IN OUTPERFORMING GOLD

    "Even with gold above $1000, silver has more luster"
    at CNNMoney.com (Tue, Sep 8) http://tinyurl .com/msrvay

    {"...silver has the potential to move even more than gold percentage-wise, and at a faster rate."} - from
    "The Rise of the Silver Surfer" by J M Brown May 22, 2009
    http://tinyurl .com/q9kucn

    Silver's outperformance over Gold bodes well once Gold truly breaks out, as measured vs the U$ Dollar

    Silver has already outperformed gold by 3 to 1

    Silver peaked last Thrs just before lunch:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=GLD&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=SLV&c=%5EDJI

    but its roaring back Monday 21 Sept while the markets tank, gaining percentage-wise more than ANYTHING El$E

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GLD&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=SLV,%5EDJI

    imho, if the broader markets continue lower, PMs should dissocioate from their linkage in following the market higher, bounce, and head to new highs as folks flee to safety - but this is just my opinion.

    Despite the hoopla last week mover Gold'$ "beakout"
    AS MEASURED VS THE U$ DOLLAR, GOLD HAS YET TO BREAKOUT ABOVE ITS MARCH RESISTANCE LEVEL: http://tinyurl .com/lmfe2l

    It Appears GOLD & SILVER will head higher no matter what the broader markets do; ie, BOTH MARKET BULLS & BEARS ARE CALLING FOR A GOLD BREAKOUT!

    Trader Mike Swanson believes we are in a new Bull market, yet he is projecting Gold to go muchhigher.

    Trader Mike (a bull) GOLD's true breakout is not far off:

    >> "Gold at $1000: Next hot rally to $1300-1700 level" <<
    by Mike Swanson @ Commodity Online 8 Sept 09
    http://tinyurl .com/o9lo4t

    The Stock Market Going Forward & Gold Breaks 1000 - Mike Swanson (09/16/09) by Mike Swanson on Wed, 2009-09-16 06:04.
    http://www.wallstreetwindow .com/content/node/11687 <<<

    In the other camp, the BEARS are ALSO calling for GOLD to breakout:

    "The Gold / Dollar Tsunami" by John Mangun Thursday, 17 Sept 2009
    http://tinyurl .com/mvddyf

    "Gold Is Money" by Greg Canavan
    http://www.lewrockwell .com/orig10/canavan1.1.1.html

    Adam Hamilton @ Zeal LLC shows that EVEN @ $1000, GOLD IS ONLY 43% OF THE WAY TO ITS INFALTION-ADJUSTED ALLTIME HIGH !!

    Real Gold Highs 3 by Adam Hamilton September 18, 2009
    http://zealllc .com/2009/cpigold3.htm

    ONCE GOLD TRULY BREAKSOUT, AS MEASURED VS THE U$ DOLLAR,
    THEN SILVER WILL BE OFF TO THE RACES IMHO.

    - - continued in next reply in this thread - -

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • SILVER HAS MUCH GREATER VOLATILITY THAN GOLD -
      U can see this in the percentage of silver's outperformance over gold

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=GLD&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=SLV

      However, PRECISELY BECAUSE OF SILVER'S GREATER VOLATILITY,
      WHEN GOLD BOUNCES AND ACTUALLY BREAKS OUT ABOVE ITS RESISTANCE AT THE MARCH HIGH, SILVER SHOULD BE PROPELLED EVEN HIGHER PERCENTAGE-WISE, JUST AS IT HAS OVER THE PREVIOUS MONTH

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GLD&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=SLV,%5EDJI

      Silver has already out-performed Gold by 3 to 1 viz:

      Silver ha$ Outperformed Gold 3-to-1; Bullion Deficit Loom$

      Silver is in the spotlight at U.S. gold gathering
      http://tinyurl .com/nxbexv

      Quote:
      {"The number one performer this year has been silver.
      Silver has outperformed gold three-to-one . . .
      Gold price has risen some 15 percent this year to around $1,000 an ounce, but silver is up 50 percent.
      "We are seeing the beginnings of a new sustainable global silver market."}

      SILVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM GOLD AS THE SILVER TO GOLD PRICE RATIO IS STILL OUT OF WHACK - IE, SILVER STILL HAS A LONG WAY TO GO TO CATCH UP TO THE PRICE OF GOLD

      see chart showing Gold / Silver Ratio imbalance from Zeal LLC:
      http://zealllc .com/c2009/Zeal082109B.gif

      Plus, there are other potent price drivers for Silver, eg:

      1) industrial need for silver in face of silver shortages

      "Can silver withstand a drop in the gold price?
      Fri, 18 Sep 2009 Or will industrial demand come to its support"
      http://tinyurl .com/nmo5un

      "Increasing Silver Demand Comes from Multiple Sources"
      by Jeff Nielson @ Seeking Alpha, 5 May 09 http://tinyurl .com/d5e8ep

      2) China encouraging its population to buy PM

      free report on China causing PM$ to boom (just 1 eg of recent news)
      http://tinyurl .com/llns6c

      3) a possible inventory shortage of silver bullion in several PM bullion banks which do NOT have enough bullion to back all the certificates they have sold retail PM bullion investors who have not taken physical delivery and have instead accepted "paper certificates of ownership"in exchaange for their paper fiat currency. These folks think they have precious metal bullion, but all they REALLY have is PAPER.

      (see links at my other post here, "Silver Inventories Gone!")

      • 2 Replies to jawz_2020
      • part 3

        So, to re-cap, both Bulls AND Bears are calling for Gold to go higher; and because of the price drivers for PMs in general and even more price drivers for for SILVER in particular (the ratio imbalance causing silver to outperform gold 3 to 1; PLU$ industrial demand in face of future silver shortage), SILVER IS THE PLACE TO BE.

        The only thing that will gain percentage-wise greater than silver itself will be the stocks of silver producers, and the nitrox-charged gains to be made by the calls on these stocks, the best of which imho is SILVER WHEAtON (NYSE: SLW)

        Thrs 17 Sept 09 MP3 AUDIO Interview with Silver Wheaton CEO Peter Barnes (NOTE: "MORE DEALS TO COME!") @ King World News:
        http://tinyurl .com/magn7y <<< Please LISTEN to this!!

        THE PRICE OF COPPER INDICATES SILVER MAY HAVE ALREADY BOTTOMED:

        THE OTHER WHITE METAL "A golden age for silver coming?"
        {"Given that the world economy has shown signs of recovery, the downside for silver is diminishing; we are seeing the floor for the metal creeping up. And, while the posibility of a short-term pull pack is possible, de Wet says "The likelihood of silver falling back toward the $13 level is becoming less and less." He adds that this is borne out by the recent moves seen in the copper price."}
        http://tinyurl .com/l2rb4u

        SILVER NEWS @ Mine web:
        http://www.mineweb .com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32

        15 pages of 100 charts on every important INDEX GOLD, SILVER, Funds, etc - MUST SEE! Rok-n-Dan's Awe$ome self-updating MARKET SECTOR CHART$ -
        http://tinyurl .com/cm2bx7

        fini$

    • Thank you for the links/resources. I for one am not part of the choir as far as PM's are concerned as I have very little knowledge and experience in this sector especially judging by the posts that I am reading on this board. I'm humbly out of my league here.

      I currently hold an embarrassingly small position at the moment but feel confident in the ratio that silver is priced in comparison to gold which I have heard before is ridiculously off.

      Again thanks for your post.

      P.S. I personally always liked the look of Silver over Gold (how silly and naive, and yet...)

    • While Silver Wheaton (SLW) is referred to as a “mining company”, it's revolutionary business model
      means that it is actually more of a silver wholesale/marketing company than a miner.

      http://www.feedthebull.com/article/silver-wheaton-safe-alternative-slv

    • Great read also StockTrader
      Thanks

    • Thanks a lot. I really hope Mr. Friedman is right one day.

      "What might Silver Wheaton then go for if/when Silver is $100 ? $200 ? $300 ?"

      The answer is: the hottest stock on NYSE, bigger than life (or Google:))

    • Re: $ilver $upply is $MALLER than Gold'$

      rytistrivedi said:
      "Thanks a lot. I really hope Mr. Friedman is right one day.

      "What might Silver Wheaton then go for if/when Silver is $100 ? $200 ? $300 ?"

      The answer is: the hottest stock on NYSE, bigger than life (or Google:))
      _________________________________

      Motley Fool AGREE$ with us!

      Motley Fool has proclaimed
      SLW THE GREATE$T OPPORTUNITY IN THE ENTIRE STOCK MARKET !!

      "Biggest Market Opportunity: Gold?"
      By Christopher Barker September 23, 2009
      http://tinyurl .com/y8cckrg

      {" Now that you're feeling rather bullish on gold, it's time to throw you a parting curve ball. The biggest market opportunity of all isn't gold at all ... it's silver. Thanks to an out-of-whack historical price ratio with gold, I contend that silver investors are bound to see a "slingshot effect" as silver closes the gap.

      Coeur d'Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE) presents a compelling growth story, but Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW) is the definitive shining star of the silver screen."}

    • Bulli$h ca$e for $ilver pt 5
      Here are $till more rea$onable arguments for the BULLISH case for SILVER going forward.

      Part 5 decimates any unsubstantiated assertion that silver is in a "bubble" - just consider the aggegate of FACTS documented below.

      Be sure to follow every link for maximum effect, especially to the charts. (to make the LINKS hot, copy & paste into your URL browser address line, then remove the "space" before the "dot" preceding "com")

      Some folks think that Gold has been pumped up into a "bubble" but whether OR NOT that is so (and its NOT),
      never-the-le$$, SILVER is DEFINITELY NOT in a "bubble."

      For "equaltime" con$ideration$, here are some articles concerning the "Gold is in a bubble" perspective:

      Short-Term vs. Long-Term Gold Forecasts by BradZigler of
      Hard Assets Investor, September 23, 2009 | about: GLD
      http://tinyurl .com/y88ruz4

      Related Articles below can be accessed from link above:

      If Housing Were Priced in Gold - Sep 24, 2009

      Gold Supported by Fed Statement - Sep 24, 2009

      The Bubble in Gold Debate - Sep 24, 2009

      Time to Take Profits in Gold Miners? - Sep 23, 2009
      _____________________________________________________

      BUT GOLD IS NOT IN A BUBBLE!!

      No Bubble
      http://tinyurl .com/npw7rd

      Gold Bull has a long way to Run Yet, says CPA @ ZEAL LLC:

      Adam Hamilton/Scott Wright:
      "Gold Bull Still Has a Long Way to Run" (09/21)

      http://thebull .com.au/articles_detail.php?id=6124

      follow Adam Hamilton @ http://www.zealllc .com
      __________________________________________________

      HOWEVER, even IF gold WAS in a bubble (and its not),

      that does NOT mean that Silver is likewise in a bubble, because its trading as if gold was still $300 <<<

      Due to the out-of-whack silver to gold ratio! observe:

      XAU Index to Price of Gold Ratio ($XAU:$SILVER)
      mining stocks & reserves values @ April 12, 2009 same as when Gold was $330 / oz & Silver @ $5 / oz !!! Note scale on RIGHT side: price of silver near $17.50 (also near the current price of silver) is the historical AVERAGE - So, SILVER IS NOT PRICED TOO - IT IS ONLY NOW RETURNING TO ITS "HISTORICAL AVERAGE" - THEREFORE, IT CAN NOT POSSIBLY BE INA "BUBBLE" about to "pop"
      http://tinyurl .com/crjp9p

      The chart below shows that PM sticks - EVEN AT CURRENT SEPT 09 LEVELS - are now selling at the lowest values in history relatedto the actualprice of metals, tight physical GLOBAL demand, and fwrd EPS projections.

      $XAU: GOLD - Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index FUTURES, continuous contract (click magnifying glass in bottom right corner to ENLARGE chart)
      http://tinyurl .com/dzq4ea

      While the above chart currently indicates GOLD miners to be in the overbought range accoording to the Full Stocastics,

      another chart (below) focusing exclusively on SILVER miners, shows thatthey bhave onklyjustnow, in September, emerged from being OVER-SOLD. (unfortunately, SLW is not on this chart, but it has been tracking closely with CDE & the other silver producers, so its nearly the same.)

      Price of Silver Divergence to Mining Shares
      (extreme divergence between price of silve and shares price of mining stocks = OPPORTUNITY!)
      http://tinyurl .com/dxl7ft

    • (continued from prevous)

      SILVER IS TRADING AT A DI$COUNT TO GOLD !!

      Q: HOW, pray tell, can THAT po$$ibly be a "bubble" ?

      huh ??

      IF silver get$ over $100, THEN it MIGHT be a "bubble" -

      but it will also be FREE MOENY to everybody with enough common sense to buy PURE MONEY or a pure money PRODUCER!!

      In fact, SILVER is not only NOT in a "bubble" it is a raging BUY -

      and of ALL the Silver bullion PRODUCERS,

      SILVER WHEATON (NYSE: SLW) was proclaimed Wednesday, 23 Sept 3009, by MOTLEY FOOL, to be the BEST OPPORTUNITY IN THE ENTIRE STOCK MARKET !!

      "Biggest Market Opportunity: Gold?"
      By Christopher Barker September 23, 2009
      http://tinyurl .com/y8cckrg

      {" Now that you're feeling rather bullish on gold, it's time to throw you a parting curve ball. The biggest market opportunity of all isn't gold at all ... it's silver. Thanks to an out-of-whack historical price ratio with gold, I contend that silver investors are bound to see a "slingshot effect" as silver closes the gap. Coeur d'Alene Mines (NYSE: CDE) presents a compelling growth story, but Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW) is the definitive shining star of the silver screen."}

      SILVER WHEATON IS SAFER THAN THE SILVER ETF, SLV !

      whereas SLV trades nothing but futures contracts and "certificates of ownership" (paper IOUs, WORSE than the fiat paper currerncy US Treasury IOUs because they are NOT backed by the FDIC),

      following the Barick deal SLW shares are backed 75% by physical silver bullion - IN PO$$E$$ION of SLW - (not a paper certificate: as with SLV)

      Silver Wheaton: The Safe Alternative to SLV
      by Jeff Nielson, 21 Sept 09 @ Seeking Alpha
      http://tinyurl .com/y8v7y5b

      SLW has locked in its supply of silver streams at a FIXED cost regardless of the miners actual or increassed cost to get to the ore. The streaming business model eleminates much of the risk inherent in mining operations, because it gets its silver ore AFTER its ALREADY been mined!

      SLW's cost to produce 1 oz silver is FIXED by contract - it can not change! (ZERO RI$K!) - @ $3.90 regardless sf how high silver price goes!!

      WHEN the silver to gold ratio gets more in line, SILVER will be +200% higher than it is now (3 x $17 = $51),

      SLW maybe trading at several MULTIPLES of the price of silver.

      eg: If its multiple is 3x for example, SLW would THEN be about (3 x 51 = $ 153 per share)

      Thu$, the many reasonable arguments above indicate a po$$ible move in the price of Silver Wheaton (SLW) from $12 to $153 < < <

      @ $12, with the silver ratio only 1/3 of what it should be.

      SLW GAINS = FREE MONEY as silver to gold ratio closes on its historical average!

    • Silver Price chart
      Silver has been running an 80 million ounce annual mine production supply deficit for 20 years
      http://tinyurl .com/y887weq

    • Beware another {15%} stop tour

      I started this thread, "Bulli$h ca$e for $ilver & SLW" the day after the previous STOP TOUR on Mon 21 Sept taking SLW to 10.57 after a gap down open, over by the end of lunch time.

      The sideways meandering price since then has taken all the Oct options lower, both calls and the $10 puts as well.

      imho, Accumulate on the next stop tour . . .

      If you look at most any chart, there's almost always a "dip" downward before a price moves HIGHER to the next level.

      I call it a "stop tour" - MMs run the pps lower to trigger as many stop loss orders as they can to replenish their inventories so they have plenty of shares to sell to the traders who chase upward momentum.

      WHEN the MMs manipulate the price lower on a downward spike

      - last time, Mon 21 Sept, the MMs walked SLW down <15%> from the open and had the price back to the previous close before lunch was over -

      in order to accumulate shares before the next move higher,

      for example, if the price of SLW was $12.50 before the "stop tour" starts,

      then <15%> from $12.50 would take the price down <$1.875> to

      $10.625 < < < (example starting from $12.50)

      Of course the price LoW depends on what the price is BEFORE the stop tour starts, so that's just an example.

      That will clean out all the retards still using stop loss orders who failed to comprehend the lesson of the LA$T stop tour:

      STOP USING STOPS!

      BE PREPARED WITH CASH ON HAND so that
      WHEN (not "if") the stop tour happens,
      you can scoop up Dec Calls & stock at a big di$count.

      BTW, the "HAMMER" candlestick formed on the previous stop tour, Mon 21 Sept, marks the price floor at the intra-day low, which was $10.57

      So, the example of 10.62 is fairly accurate imho;
      the stop tour should not go lower than the hammer low of 10.57

      we would then have a "double bottom" formation heralding a move higher . . .

      Chart: 3 mo RSI, ADX BBs
      http://tinyurl .com/lkj2nc

      btw, american bulls dot com put out 29 Sept a BUY rec on SLW when it was $11.78

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