Wow! Gold has remained within at least 1% of $1000 gold for 3 weeks now, that is phenomenal.
A week or two ago, I figured the US index would bounce off of 76. Now I feel 95% confident it will be repelled by 77.5 to 78, this point coinciding with the RSI value that has been keeping the dollar index in check for the last 4 months as strong resistance.
I guess the coming 5 to 7 days will present the best opportunity to buy SLW on the low.
When the US dollar starts pressing against 74 we'll see how much mouth the talking heads have about an orderly 4% decline each year for the next 14 year for the dollar, bringing its value exactly 50% lower to get America's trade deficit in check.
Everyone and their grandmother is talking about the fact the dollar has to decline. When it starts pressing 74 to 72, it will be self preservation gone wild. I can see the dollar loosing 5% in one day easy.
Although I thoroughly believe EWI charting, I am sceptical about one aspect, their claim the PMs are due for a whacking, with gold going down perhaps to 680, and silver declining likewise, and the US dollar shooting way up.
The factors behind the PMs pricing are so screwy and opaque, and the inflationary expectations for the dollar are now becoming so public and widespread, that PMs could blast off up or down and neither one would really surprise me.
Who can remember when the general public wisdom was so concerned about looming inflation (because of govt deficit spending and running the presses overtime)? Is there anyone left concerned with deflation?
The only thing that will surprise me is that if we stick with the status quo.
How screwy is even the market, the DOW again testing the 9800 range testerday and failing again for the what, the 6th time?, 7th time? And today starts off with a bang, and then a wilt.
Although there are no bears left, even the bulls expect a modest pullback which is viewed as being healthy at this point. But the damn market just won't cooperate, skidding along in a range, threatening to blast up or down, who can tell?
As long as today’s highs remain intact (1069.62 in the S&P and 9834.50 on the DOW) the most likely direction is now down.
When DOW 9630.20 and S&P 1039.47 are broken, the alternate wave interpretation of going higher can be discounted. But instead, if there is a rise above today's highs, it will break the wave pattern and indicate more to the upside. I am itching to go short on the market, can't wait for confirmation.
EWI is still calling for a substantial retreat in gold and silver, gold at 680/oz and silver at 8.40/oz. Can't say as how I believe this now, but if it happens, it will make a total EWI believer out of me; it flies in the face of all the fundamental outside factors, like are mentioned in this thread and elsewhere in this notes group.
Does ANYBODY here read a few posts before blowing air in a post? Before we get all gooey eyed about today's "chart action", we rumbled off to a good start because of better than expected housing prices 9AM, and rumbled down when consumer confidence drifted lower 10AM month over month.
SLW bucked both the trend lower in silver, after a volatile day, and HUGELY on speculation accumulation for end of quarter, end of year this Thursday makes shares attractive.
PLEASE give concerted reads to all functional posts and then draw a conclusion based on all facts.
The talk at the FOREX, the FC's session rooms is that 2 of the 4 banks whom have been shorting have started to cover their short plays on the other OTC markets. This is why we moving up and down the last 2 days. If 2 banks are ticked about the G 20 salary limits, they may just pay the Government back with their hedge funds which are their shorts on gold. They may also go long. One fact that will happen is that the banks will use their hedge funds to pay the Government, the question is when. GS wants a lower dollar and their trading programs will love the action. We should soon be set for 1200 gold.