We are all here because we believe in a significantly higher gold and silver price; in a lower US dollar price; and so, don't get your hopes to high about what management will or will not do and how they spin news releases. I've been here I think since 2004, made a lot of money, but not on the management, its been on the moves of gold, silver and the US dollar.
I'm in a trade right now and I searched over hours of technical information trying to determine the future direction of the market.
At the end of the day, it boiled down to one little, almost irrelevant indicator. MACD. The USD hit 75 as the MACD is crossing downward today. This almost certainly means the next week will be a downward candle on the US dollar, and likely the following week as well, therefore all commodities, including SLW will be up in despite today. We will see in the next few days. The move downward in the dollar will be relatively large if I'm reading this correctly.
My spidy senses are tingling.
The dollar is sinking lower today. But what will happen tomorrow when the treasury auctions a new batch of 30 year bonds? And who would want to buy those bonds in this environment...sinking dollar and rising inflation and rising interest rates?
Chamaee, I applaud your adamant practice to DD. I'd "never leave home without it," myself.
Others must do their own. Not to cheapen the process, but it's a little like counting cards. You must study, study, study to win.
spidey senses are real my friend. May I suggest an interesting book to you & the board? Ever hear of "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell? He cites some very interesting studies on how we make decisions. The human body is amazing in it's ability to react to its environment.
Spidey senses are often very good...someti,es they are best we got..with the skill to believe in them and act accordingly.
I read Bill Fleckenstein daily. You, Fleck, (and me btw), are on the same page regarding the "overcrowded trade stuff." ..I expected your view as it is.
In fact, gold is far from overcrowded. Money managers hold very little gold, silver or miners. Individual investors also hold very small percentage in their portfolios.
Fleck personally holds lots of gold and miners and has said PM's are in the 4th or 5th inning at most.
I have very little regard for most pundits...mostly just noise..So much BS..talking their own book..
Just heard Gartman...his view on lower dollar is it does not create more export business..some think it logically will..he says they are wrong..he's probably right.
How'd you like those spidey senses, feeling the fall in the dollar was upon us. It just goes to show, when all else fails the simplest of explanations wiil prevail.
Personally, I don't listen to the pundits as it relates to "overcrowded trade".
After seeing oil go from $70 to $140 with pundits calling it overcrowded, toppy, whatever term you want to use, I realized they missed a 100% gain.
Also, watching gold most recently shoot from 1000 to 1115 has supposedly been an overcrowded trade. Lastly, the tech boom was overcrowded and made many millionaire over the course of the nasdaq rising for a couple of years.
As for where the dollar goes, I may not be one of the best FX traders in the world but my spidey senses say this fall in the dollar will continue for between 1 to 2 weeks before bouncing back significantly.
Stay with the trend my friend.
I supposed you're right but, when given a wide choice, I've always been prone to nicely shaped twin 38's.(married 'em once)
The dollar is regarded by some(media pundants) as a crowded trade, i.e., 70 or so so-called analysts asked feel it is going much lower. As an armchair analyst somewhat out of the loop, I feel $ is going much lower for a variety of reasons. One being the Fed/Treasury wants it lower and will prevent it from somehow strengthening. Two: It deserves to be lower simply based on currency fundmentals..Three: it will be helpful/necessary to the export business, i.e., with the rest of the industrialized world being the competition..creating a currency valuation race to the bottom so to speak. (a simple notion as a result of worldwide QE)
Question: How do you feel about the 'crowded trade' scenario? What you looking for? $ breaking 74.90 on this shot and continues lower to 72, with slight corrections and ratcheting lower to near panic levels into 2nd or 3rd quarter 2010. When then (incidently election time), perhaps irates will be manuvered higher as unemployment/the economy MAYBE starts to performs better? (a big MAYBE here..frankly, I have my doubts about that last comment)
The Fed/Treasury will continue on their necessary path of lower $ until the pressure gets too great. By that I mean, the public and/or press will be all over the 'weak' $ like white on rice. Panic headlines/calls will make calls threatening the demise of the currency, the further decay of the economy, with talk of systemic risk, etc. all as a result of the weak $ (the logical scapegoat) will abound the media.
Bennie, at that point will be forced to orchestrate higher irates..The Bernanke/Geithner/Summers team will talk up the dollar to create confidence and a sense of well being. Int'l FX and hedgies (will reverse highly profitable carry trades) and $ will make a huge run-up spiking quickly higher on route to pre-panic levels, back to 77-80 or higher just in time for mid-term elections. You can bet the Dems will use the media to its fullest extent at that event.
I have been accused of being too wordy on posts..so bye bye.(for now)
Why December 10, if anything I think that as the comex expiration for the December contract gets close the two banks that hold 80% of the short interest on gold (HSBC and J.P Morgan) will slam it down to make the contracts worthless bringing gold with it temporarily to maybe 1070. What is everyone elses opinion for the week of the Dec Comex Expiration? I have December calls so unfortunately I am on a time table here...
Seasonality honestly... after the first couple weeks of december we tend to sell off until the end of january.
Nothing more nothing less. I just think the rest of the market is due a 10-15% drop and that's as good of a time as any.
I'm mostly just trying to be careful. I'd rather miss out on 10% than get killed by 50%
You sure that's your spidey senses tingling? :P
I agree fyi... i think we're bullish until dec 10 or so.
Middle of january i'm most likely in cash. i think after the christmas rally things could get a little ugly.
I'm not sure what it is anymore after pouring over all those bloody charts:)
For all the technical folks out there, look at a 3,4 or 6 month USD chart overlayed with MACD, and you'll see some big range down moves of the USD within days of the MACD cross.