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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Nov 12, 2009 8:12 AM Flag

    Technicals -Bodium

    Hey Bodium, I'll answer inline with [Chemaes] at the end.

    1. MACD crossed over a few days ago but it sure looks like it could cross back real quick. [Chemaes] It could, but remember the MACD is a very slow indicator, there could be a bounce in the dollar upward for 3 days or so without truly alterating the trajectory of the MACD's downward direction. You have to watch day by day.

    2. It has now touched the lower BB 2 times in the last 3 days. Wm just mentioned the opposite regarding SLW. [Chemaes] I monitor direction changes utilizing many things and it really just depends on the stock, the sector and the dollar volume traded to determine which combination of tools I'll use.

    3. STO look like they are really ready to turn.[Chemaes]I haven't been trading SLW but when I look at the chart right now, it said a turn was coming on Tuesday's close. That said, if you acted Tuesday, you would have been a day early, but better early with some profits I say. SLW has to go back down to test the $15 breakout point, it's the normal ebb and flow of price action. The price zones that might be tested are $15, $14.25 and $13.89.

    4. It would not take much of an upswing to cross the 50 DMA, maybe two or three days? [Chemaes] I don't track 50 day moving averages, the information it provides is too old to be useful. Fund managers use to have show performance on quarterly basis (90 days) so using 50 day moving was ok. In today's times, some are having to show performance on a bi-weekly basis, weekly basis, and some on a daily basis. I use 5 day, 14 day and 28 day averages.

    5. It is not far off being oversold on RSI.[Chemaes] Yeah, the RSI says it still has a way to go, maybe $2 to $3 dollars, but there will be ups and downs on this current trajectory.

    I think to key to all commodity trades is to watch the dollar. Oil is very telling too.


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    • The Chaiukin Money Flow has been bloody red for a while, and distribution (selling) has been predominant for over a month now.

      Chart: 3 mo, CMF, Accum/Dist, BBs http://tinyurl .com/ktrzx3

      (copy URLs, remove "space" b4 "dot" com)

      truly surprising, but there it is.

      SLW is 60% bearish @ stockconsultant "dot" com

      CURRENT PRICE 14.88, just above resistance,
      14.32 ± 0.53, type double, strength 10


      -3.8% at 14.32 ± 0.53, type double, strength 10
      -15.1% at 12.64 ± 0.47, type triple, strength 10

      This guy even says silver is gonna go DOWN (can U believe it? I can not)

      "Silver Prices Are About to Fall"
      by Avery Goodman • Nov 05

      Goodman argues that the dollar will RALLY in the months ahead, driving silver down steeply

      http://seekingalpha .com/article/171442-silver-prices-are-about-to-fall

      offered in the spirit of contrarianism

      For the record, I told y'all back in Sept that SLW would be $16 before Thanksgiving, and it hit $15.50 on Vet Day 11 Nov.

      I still think silver will be $20 very soon, but who knows?

      I sold my SLWLE Dec $16 calls @ .60, way too soon (they hit .85 after I sold, of course), and I've been waiting for them to retrace some before buying them again.

    • Hey Chem,

      Thanks for the excellent T/A. Printed it out and added to my list of things to become more familiar with.

      I wonder how much of today's move was related to other countries saying they are going to support the dullar as they don't like losing business to the falling manipulated yaun.

21.89-0.120(-0.55%)Jun 28 4:02 PMEDT