There is great volatility in oil today. This usually suggests a momentum turn in commodities to me. Also, I see lower lows in a few other commodities intraday with the exception of silver and gold, but I watch into the close.
If nothing else, oil might provide a couple of dollars to the agile short, which I pretend to be.
Yep, that's the way it works, get you all excited, increase the grey hair count, then, the trade says "see ya tomorrow".
I have a neutral feeling going into the close.
Here's my fundatechnical thoughts on oil.
Oil inventory report was bearish. I don't trade on fundamentals.
From a technical perspective, oil dropped briefly (for minutes) after the report was released but then rose, backfilled, rose backfilled, rose, backfilled all the way into 2:30. If i follow my rules, they tell me to get back short into the close. If you're worried get flat. However, I've never seen oil rise is such a methodical way after the report. It suggests many funds buying and then others coming in, couple this with the fact that the weekly oil chart just broke out last week after backfilling for 8 weeks, and I'm inclined to believe oil is more bullish than bearish which makes me want to remain long.
Add to this, gold went exactly back to 1138, then backed off. keeping in mind that massive $20 plus rise in gold's price rise two days ago, and today's unwillingness to continue the decline, plus silver leading the gold charge up, and I went long on my SLW again.
Finally, some of the commodities I watch rose continuously all day.
All these things made me wish to stay long into the close.
If you are a worry wart, get neutral into the close, but if you're a risk taker,,,,,lol, like me you stay long. keep in mind my short of the last couple of days in oil made me what most people get get paid in one to two months, so, I'm playing with profits until I see the full force of the swing then, I go all-in..
If you want to know how tomorrow will play out, watch the first two hours of oil trade after close..Up says tomorrow is up commodity wise. Down, says, I lost maybe $1000 bucks today, oh well..
when gold broke above 1138 the other day with that $20+ move to the upside, this suggested a very strong rally. Then it broke down below $1138 a day or so later. Now it seems poised to jump back over $1138.
If it does this, breaking back above $1138, I'm buying with both hands and feet again, maybe even before. If it closes above $1138 the rally will be huge, because this would have been a text book shake out, and I mean HUGE!
Gold is about to make a stab at 1134.95, give or take a 10-20 cents. Getting through this price will go a long way towards making me want to jump on.
Thanks for the info.
... I've looking for an exit point for my SRS trade. Looking good so far but i'm thinking a couple good earnings calls and the bubble will continue to inflate. -------I've heard that oil could be a good play on the long side
this years but it would be nice to have a vehicle to ride the waves. (I'll watch it for a while)GL2u