My previous post this thread turned out to be somewhat prophetic. I said probably cough down to $15.40 although the stock is worth $15.75 if you believe in the penny for penny rise and fall of this stock for each penny in spot price, and we'd reserved about 45 cents upside bias.
We finished right in the middle of that $15.40-75 range. There's about 1.5% upside bias still remaining in the relationship between the POS and the POSLW--we may see $16 next week with a little silver strength.
We finish anything above $15 close to option expiration 14 days away I'll be ecstatic with my "buy-write" covered call strategy.
KITCO Overnight prices for spot silver are up 3/4%.
Using my newly minted totally subjective 1X rule, in which SLW is of a price to look like it should track the POS, we're "due" about 12 pennies more than yesterday.
On the other hand.
Note we lagged previous two or three days almost 3% growth in the POS. THere's about 45 pennies positive bias underneath silver stock prices in general.
If all things were normal (count me out) we should be at $15.75 end of day.
THAT would be nice however unsustainable--we'd glomph down to about $15.40 at the close today even if we hit loftier numbers interday.
I'd be willing to daytrade 10000 shares to see that happen.
And for those who like option plays, if that number $15.75 hits, you might want to pop a smattering of March and April 15/16/17 calls as insurance, if you're holding long term.
Nothing like pocketing a buck plus while you're waiting. And if called away, well, there's the cash to redeploy for $7 scottrade style.
I think we are entering close to a period of correction in the general market and believe PMs stocks will be hurt by this.
Personally, I sold almost all of my PM stocks yesterday excepting my very core long-term SLW, despite feeling that the SLW report will be good. I felt it is best to take my profit now.
Basically, I am getting kind of nervous about the general market run and believe it is ripe for a major correction with all the uncertainties surrounding the world economy.
Long-term I am very bullish with SLW.
USDX went up today and most equities in PM sector went down.....nothing new here. Look at the currency losses on the report....tha's what all this volatility is about....global currencies. USDX will probably retract on Friday as per my 'Carmac' prediction. (Eco fact digestion overnight). Notice how CEF and SLV were not afected by the dollar volatility. POS is in US dollars so we ride that train everyday the market is open.
Watch gold prices in Hong Kong overnight and you'll probably be close as to where PM's direction is in the morning.
Gold 1132.70 @ 8:32 pm MST almost unchanged from the US close.
Silver 17.17 same time, down 2 cents.
I predict a slight rise probably 10 or 15 cents in SLW.
WAS IT THE PRICE OF SILVER OR THE REPORT THAT DROVE THE STOCK UP???
Gold 1139 @ 9:35am MST
USDX 80.48 .07 pretty much flat!!!!
It looks to me like the news from the report is probably about 40% of the enthusiasm to own the stock and 60% because the price of the metal went up.....and today we can see this because USDX is flat and very little influence on these internal ratio adjustments. A really good day to see how great an influence these fators has on this stock and probably stock in general. I'm in the green and I'll probably set a target around 17.25 to 17.50 to exit. The oppurtunity to renter always arises no matter what the silver bulls opinions may be.
all things being equal (meaning the price of silver doesn't crater), it should trade very well... this release feels like the company has entered a new phase.... I think this stock trades in the 20's this year, perhaps sooner than the fall....I cannot figure out why an owner of the stock would sell it, and I could justify putting new money to work here....JMHO and Good luck to all