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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • yourdeadmeat69 yourdeadmeat69 Mar 18, 2010 12:35 AM Flag

    I THINK I got some of this figured

    End of a very special quarter of window dressing. With banks flooded by cash from TARP to the buying of mortgage backed securities $1.5T deep, they're propping up the market with big morning buys and AH sells and further buys.

    That demand comes to a halt when the market sees $1.5T in backed securities come to a halt on 31 March. The market is supposed to take care of itself thereafter, and as techticker states, if the market is able to fly by itself, it will be the first time the market has ever done that with a successful Fed program since WWII.

    I am skeptical. We've only scratched the surface of unemployment, 9.7% is still a big number and housing prices have joesixpac scratching his head, tossing his keys around as if they're about to be tossed back into the hands of bankers.

    I used to be defensive, not I am plumb paranoid. I'm increasing my cash position substantially, and may dabble for two weeks, but that is about it.

    I think the S and P has about ten percent to go, I am fearful of a downdraft taking overseas investment with it, I can bank on the dollar weakness only so far.

    I'm on skies looking at the downdraft to the bottom of the mountain. It is only halfway back, but I can't take that chance for ten percent upside, to slide half way back.

    SLW is going parabolic, it may rise another two to four dollars, it is just a frothing mess out there though, and the numbers both companies and the govt put out are just not believable, and joe doesn't have the bulk of the demand dollars to keep sliding on top of the foam on the range.

    Other than a balance of short positions or ETF, what is most vulnerable to irate pops and liquidity drops.

    That's the rub.

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    • Well now we are down a dollar from yesterdays high.....I deserve a double kick in the arse. The vulnerability on this play is way more than the average small time investor can fathom. The big market movers dominate this space and then sway the market when ever they make a move, in or out. Silver is dominated by these players, which are in my mind large and in charge. Central banks probaly have little to do with silver prices. India is an exception as they do hold several 100 tons of the metal. I don't think the EU, America or China hold very much in this space. Russia may hold some, but generally they are in the gold space.

      I am looking for an exit next week after this 'triple witching BS' is old news and the commodities swing way higher. The longs will jump back in probably Monday or Tuesday to take advantage of the artifical bottom some MM has created. Its a bloody mess this free enterprise system....the manipulators are everywhere.


    • Other reasons to sell might be greece/IMF/germany; Healthcare vote; tied together with lethargic moves in DOW and TSX which look uninspired.

      But then again, you may be in the camp that believes much of this is priced in. Oil told me to close my long position yesterday, back no the short side. Euro went below 1.366 and dollar is pressing 80.5, just makes it seem like caution is in order. Maybe just protect yourself with a hedge, but at this point I'm not sure what to hedge with.

    • MUSCLES,

      Nobody ever made any money in the market watching the green lights flash.

      Don't be afraid to take a profit! You deserve it!

    • You need to ask why the stock was 16.48 in the morning and 15.83 when it closed. The stock dropped 4% and silver was only down from 17.52 to 17.40... 8 pennies .4%. what are we applyfying losses by ten these days....what a joke.
      I was so close to dumping today at 16.50 cdn...but no I held my ground as the stock went lower and lower and lower.
      Please kick me when I do stupid things!


    • Well passage of Healthcare "Reform" could be a macro event - I definitely could see taking profits but not going short

    • Just when you think the FED is done with quantitative easement you relearn that they are not very truthful in their statements. They will do what ever.

    • The PM stocks live and die by the calendar: options expiration, the Fed meetings, treasury sales. I've always tried to ignore these as noise, but I've been burned so many times with HL. I think maybe I'll follow your lead.

      What I have seen a hundred time is this: options expiration Friday (triple witching this week), going into Monday manipulation (gold's always weaker at Monday's opening), followed by treasury sales and topped off with a Fed meeting. These clumped perfect storms can typically knock a dollar off a stock like HL. The short interest takes this to the bank every single time. This time, I'm protecting myself.


    • ans seeing SLW in the red right now, I'm not unhappy with my decisions earlier...

    • With the massive auctions next week, I take no chances.

      Almost done. Hopefully tomorrow, bank the rest. Down to maybe 15-20% total holdings.


    • Why sell off on Friday's close? What's the trigger for such a move? Just curious.


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