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  • nighttrader09 nighttrader09 Mar 24, 2010 4:43 AM Flag

    EUR/USD breakdown?


    Interestingly enough, as the euro slides, PM stocks moved up and appears to be continue this upward trend.

    I am kinda lost. Can you help explain this?


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    • Not sure I understand nighttrader, the EUR/USD started down at 1 am roughly, and that's when the USD index started up and gold down. EUR/USD just blew down to 1.3335 and unfortunately we see the carnage in PM's as a result, striking the tape at 1090 gold.

      What's interesting is how well oil is holding up right now, I suspect waiting for EIA numbers, but if the EURO continues the slide I can't see oil holding up.


      • 1 Reply to chemaes44
      • Sorry, I didn't answer your question about what I see happening.

        The first downside target in the EURO is 1.32, there's a gap that's sitting there since a year ago. From an order book perspective, i doubt there'd be orders still sitting there, but I suspect technicians will see the gap and places orders there waiting for the Euro to move down.

        A move of the Euro from 1.346 down to 1.3345 produced a $10 sell off in gold, so utilizing ratio's this suggest a move down to $1000 gold if the EURO drop's to that 1.32. The problem with that simplistic model is, gold has been rising against most currencies, and the model assumes all other currencies remain where they are. They won't. The Canadian dollar has been on a tear as an example and it will offset some of the Euro down turn, even if only marginally because the CDN's weighted average is less.


        Best I can do is tell you chart says 1.32 Euro is probable.


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