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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • jng855 jng855 Oct 30, 2010 4:10 PM Flag

    SWL Price Targets 2010,2011,2012

     

    Here is a basic spreadsheet highlighted with my price targets for the December 31'st 2010,2011,2012, etc. using a P/E of 30 if the bull market in metals continues.

    2010 ($31-$35) PPS
    2011 ($72-$80) PPS
    2012($90+) PPS

    Feel free to use the spreadsheet at your leisure and come to your own conclusions.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AobLlTcTy2D0dGZ0RGM2ai1OTlVmdWFjRTREODQ0aUE&hl=en&authkey=CJ_m8pUB

    JNG

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    • You seem to be ignoring depletion and corporate costs in your analysis. You only take into account the cash cost of $3.90. These other costs must be taken into account to get a proper net income figure. You are overstating SLW's net income by approx. $3 to $4 an ounce. At $20 AG, realized profit would be $20 - $8.1 (using June 30 costs)or $11.9 per ounce x 23.5M oz = $280M / 358.2M sh = $.78 per share net income. To check the reasonableness of this figure, the estimated income for SLW for 2010 is $.70/sh.

      Then apply any PE multiple you desire, but you are ignoring costs that need to be considered when computing the net income.

      • 1 Reply to mtstack2000
      • No one also seems to remember the pricing in of new acquisitions with up front costs of $50-500M. Dilution no matter how swiftly executed, and SLW is excellent at this, takes its toll.

        We'll see $30 before we see $24.50 on a consistent basis, but a flirtation with a sell off to the tune of 15% takes us there from an intermediate high of $30.

        Auguring forward is our 2.25% degradation against the 2X rule, since SLW is that much behind a strawman gage of moving 2X the POS. That steady state behind the power curve market value of SLW means there is great reluctance to move to higher highs off the all time high, and monstrous rock and roil to be expected next week with huge eco reporting, elections, and QE announcements touted as early as Wednesday.

    • Good analysis. I think a $50 Ag price by 2013 is reasonable and could prove to be conservative, but we won't still be trading at 30x earnings then because it's unlikely the current growth profile will exist at that point. A 12x PE in 2013 would be strong and reasonable at that point, and still leave significant upside opportunity in the stock price.

    • Thanks for sharing this! Any updates or changes as we go forward will be appreciated!

    • Thanks for sharing your spreadsheet. How did you come up with the production for 2011 and 2012? I have looked everywhere trying to find estimates for those years.

 
SLW
20.12+0.13(+0.65%)4:02 PMEDT

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