Greece, then Italy, remains the overhang, the inevitable default of Greece was supposed to have the March can kicked down the road, but nobody is discussing the election that following month. Politicos are stalling, and the folks in the handout business want a mere 1/2BILION in cuts, so this chump change is apparently got all the gloom doom and short players out on a Friday past.
Probably more of the same next week, as important indicators almost every day but Monday mark the week to be overhung by the EURO debacle. Watch Greece slowly, for a picture of ourselves, hands out, expecting the government we've created into a sentient being, by allowing it to print its own money called bonds, with all the moral sanctity of a hooker on speed.
CPI numbers will be cooked, not one of these clowns ever had to buy a sandwich. Our candidates of choice this coming Presidential election, one thinks poor people are voters, so lets make some more of them, and take their civil liberties away by disallowing them a lawyer if classified as (terrorist) and the other thinks $375,000 for a speaking engagement is chump change. Maybe it is.
Guess who's the chump? Here you go.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Feb 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% -
Feb 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Jan - 0.6% 0.5% -0.2% -
Feb 14 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jan - NA NA -0.2% -
Feb 14 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jan - NA NA 0.1% -
Feb 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories Dec - 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% -
Feb 15 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 02/11 - NA NA 7.5% -
Feb 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Feb - 15.0 14.0 13.5 -
Feb 15 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Dec - NA NA $59.8B -
Feb 15 9:15 AM Industrial Production Jan - 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% -
Feb 15 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Jan - 78.2% 78.6% 78.1% -
Feb 15 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Feb - 25 26 25 -
Feb 15 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 02/11 - NA NA 0.304M -
Feb 15 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes 1/25 - - - - -
Feb 16 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/11 - 365K 365K 358K -
Feb 16 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 02/04 - 3550K 3505K 3515K -
Feb 16 8:30 AM Housing Starts Jan - 645K 670K 657K -
Feb 16 8:30 AM Building Permits Jan - 650K 675K 679K -
Feb 16 8:30 AM PPI Jan - 0.3% 0.3% -0.1% -
Feb 16 8:30 AM Core PPI Jan - 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% -
Feb 16 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Feb - 10.0 10.0 7.3 -
Feb 17 8:30 AM CPI Jan - 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% -
Feb 17 8:30 AM Core CPI Jan - 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% -
Feb 17 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Jan - 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% -
Well put Major. I was in the Marines (don't feel bad) 60-63. Many of us have kept in touch. I'm amazed at how uniformly we all are strongly on the conservative side w/o regard for what we did after leaving the Corp. USMC taught us many things well perhaps. Although I didn't vote for Obama, I had high hopes for him when he became our president. He has failed miserably. Record setting debt for his time in, reduction of respect for our country, more people on welfare (w/his encouragement), striving for the same socialism which is crushing EU and the list goes on.
I spent 6 months in the Alps about 37 years ago. I got to go to Munich for 3 days. There was a two story McDonalds with the arch. Very strange to see that. It was costly. Food in France was really expensive, Not so in Italy. I have been to England several times since. I'll take Boston to London any day.
SPAM central continues, the hacking into NASDAQ dot com continues again this morning, and the but the big deal is about 1100AM EST when the next phonecon meeting about the Greek fracas shows up. France and German economies show resilience while the rest of Europe flounders in its gimmmee state of confusion.
The nominal tax rate in Germany is 48%, so goes the theory of high taxation as impediment for growth. Kind of like US 1946-64, when corporations either paid taxes or hired folks. What do we get here? Borrow and spend, borrow and spend.
You have two sources of wealth. Fiat debt which shrinks along with the dollar, and hopefully the debt invested in gold and silver, which soars likewise.
There are landmines ahead. But that is the way of it.
"The nominal tax rate in Germany is 48%, so goes the theory of high taxation as impediment for growth."
The statement begs two questions:
1) What is the rate of inflation in Germany?
2) What is the size and scope of the black market there?
Silver up on slowing of yen's fall due to 11 TRILLION yet printing press announced yesterday...1.25 ascent of the dollar against the yen kicked gold and silver in the teeth on two levels, selling pressure based on the dollar re eval, and selling pressure itself. Option expiry this Friday for all intents and purposes, and a long weekend with limited markets Monday, and you have the perfect storm for ying and yang. The chart for SLW looks good only to shorts yesterday. I bought some shares at about $35.50, immediately popped a Feb $35, and will sit on my hands till the weekend is over. I'm hoping for a finish at $34.99 end of day, which will put my basis those shares at $34.64. I will consider selling March 35's, but I am on the fence.
Dollar storm's over, the Japanese market took off like a scalded cat, and is now showing flat futures. The market however in general, is showing a nice rebound from yesterday's who cares selloff. As long as Greece doesn't falter in our face today, and the teleconference is a sign of unanimity, as opposed to a formal documentation signing delay (hey, we don't even have to meet, let's just do this over the phone) we be cool.
THIS I gotta see.
Retail sales were good year over year, but below anal-yst expectation, leading ominously into tomorrow's CPI, PPI, Pee-on-u cooked numbers. An uptick in CPI "inflation" and the good, not great retail numbers all levels, including auto will reintroduce "stagflation" intot the mix, unless they cook the books about job growth.
Maybe with all this cooking, I should have invested in McDonalds or Kraft Foods.
The Greek debacle appears over at the law level for Greece, the wrangling continues on execution, governments in PIIGS-ville have been downgraded from despotic to fraudulent, so futures are flat.
The sucker betters in gold and silver that bought into margin decreases make paper silver folks nervous, and while SLW appears secure to the intelligent who know it is a cash machine over $9 an ounce, the rest of the investing public aren't as savvy.
When the bulls at Pamploma stampede, you don't get in their way.
So, for this week, I see maundering around without good news. GOOG is taking over the world tho. AMZN has recovered from its analyst's misreading of a good quarter versus great one.
I myself am going dividend hunting. There's some junk bond funds that are worth collecting.