Precursed 25-6 Feb G 20 blah blah, which will support the bailout and importance Greeks keep their word, whatever Greeks are in power that country this coming elections in April.
The market "wants" to go higher, mainly because there is no other place to go, as all those dollars in govt paper aren't generating any more, uh, paper. In the meantime, the market is showing signs of bubblehood. How? When the market rises on no-where-else-to-go, the trigger for the next pullback is somewhere else, namely high interest rate paper. We have till 2014 end of year, meaning, the summer of '14 is the time folks start getting antsy.
But that is long time coming, so confidence, and claims, and housing (gag) make for stew. Silver is breaking out, and probably will hit $47 again on the Greek fiasco coming, and the rest of the PIIGS boiling away in hot water.
Hope you like steamed pork, and good trading.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Feb 27 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Jan - NA NA -3.5% -
Feb 28 8:30 AM Durable Orders Jan - NA NA 3.0% -
Feb 28 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Jan - NA NA 2.2% -
Feb 28 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Dec - NA NA -3.4% -
Feb 28 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Feb - NA NA 61.1 -
Feb 29 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 02/25 - NA NA -4.5% -
Feb 29 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 02/25 - NA NA -4.5% -
Feb 29 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q4 - NA NA 2.8% -
Feb 29 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q4 - NA NA 0.4% -
Feb 29 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Feb - NA NA 60.2 -
Feb 29 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 02/25 - NA NA 1.633M -
Feb 29 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Feb - - - - -
Mar 1 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/25 - NA NA 351K -
Mar 1 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 02/25 - NA NA 3392K -
Mar 1 8:30 AM Personal Income Jan - NA NA 0.5% -
Mar 1 8:30 AM Personal Spending Jan - NA NA 0.0% -
Mar 1 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Jan - NA NA 0.2% -
Mar 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Feb - NA NA 54.1 -
Mar 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending Jan - NA NA 1.5% -
Mar 1 2:00 PM Auto Sales Feb - NA NA 5.00M -
Mar 1 2:00 PM Truck Sales Feb - NA NA 5.73M -
Manufacturing index should hum, and the number of homes in construction should increase as the foreclosure inventory sells off, but don't look for extreme numbers. Cars are attractive, but I don't look for big buying here, flat would be good.
Bernanke said no QE3, but the rollover of the first two QE moves along at about 1/2 Trillion per year in perpetuity, and all that liquidity swapping, pushing Europe down the road is underwritten by guess who, our Fed, which should help stabilize Europe up until headline news about balking the swap and buyout drifts us past the Greek elections April. In English, look for a rebound in the POS to at least half the difference in the drop.
Paul recently took Bernanke to the woodhouse on the POS which he says is moving faster than the price of oil by 225% or so. He asks how a country can survive if fixed income people have to invest in risky assets versus CD's and other fixed income vehicles.
His question answered itself. If you debase the currency, your money is in how much debt you can accumulate and watch waste away due to currency manipulation, not how much you can invest. If you invest the borrowed money, it should grow 10X the debt. All you have to sacrifice is peace of mind, be perennially tied to the market until you're 90, or work until you drop dead, hoping to get raises equal to or more than the price of the degradation of fiat money, folks inappropriately call "inflation".
Folks will argue Bernanke and Paul have different "views" on "inflation". Do you have different "views" on fourth grade math? Is 2 plus 2 = 4 a political statement, or a mathematical construct that has no philosophy?
That's what money is supposed to be, a math test, not a political argument. But not to those who would "control" the value of money by stripping it of buying power 5-6% a year. This is about the veneer, the perception, the barest scintilla, of "control". There are people earning doctoral degrees about how fiat is the right way to go. Doctoral degrees handed out about "diversification" and "averaging".
Why? Because the main contest, the degradation of money, makes everything appear 10X in 40 years at 6% a year degradation the value of fiat dollars.
As long as this is our process, silver will see $400 long before it sees $4, gold $20000 an ounce long before it sees $1000 again. Gas will be $50 a gallon. Your 100K salary buy no more than 10K worth of goods and services.
Today is an uppish day. Silver is still experiencing some minor degradation holding over from yesterday, but will eek out a gain today. I don't know who was waiting for more bailout from Bernanke, but that was ill advised after 18 months of phony "improvements" in the GDP and CPI/PPI numbers.
I am glad I sell covered calls against my positions. They helped me cut losses yesterday by 1/2. I don't get all the pop, but I don't suffer all the drop. It's a stabilizing force in a world gone totally insane.
Not much in the way of economic news today, and the explosion of the oil pipeline sets up a huge rally in oil that is unmerited since allegedly, this was a natural, not a terrorist type disaster.
Huge pops in oil depict the huge drops to come. The market is unsure of itself this morning, and silver is selling off as the herd without a brain mills around sniffing the oily air that recent oil line disaster doing a Chicken Little sky is falling routine.
Heavy bets on the fall of the price of oil back to prepanic levels being made, that's for more sanguine folks and younger bucks.
I sit on my hands watching time premium drift out of my covered calls, and am happy with my hedge. Holding over the weekend should garner me a dime twixt this AM and Monday. That's $5-750 dollars, a months food bill.
I am not ecstatic, but am satisfied. The day should be fairly neutral when all is done, IMHO.
Looks like we wait for continuing claims tomorrow for anything functional, today, for reasons nobody can find, the world seemed to be hanging on Mr Bernanke announcing some kind of helicopter stimulus to bouy metals markets. Actually he said he saw the gas guage as something transitory and not inflationary, so that didn't auger against easy money.
That should have sent the precious metals up, since the bigger picture demands easy money and cheap dollars--which is exactly what he said, instead, the market took it the opposite way that the hand of financial gods would not smote the evil recession, and took feet instead.
The herd never surprises me, it ALWAYS baffles me. The man comes out as pro inflationary by ignoring the inflationary spike in gas, and the PM market takes the opposite tack. NEVER get rich underestimating the intelligence of the average investor.
See you tomorrow.
I think the fact that he really didn't say anything "against" further easing, or for some kind of radical change in policy,---
The herd will re-evaluate what they heard and the metels will advance again within a few days.
It's a tossup what number they'll actually pose as the GDP inflator deflator, of last 4th QTR. Methinks the credible, however unreal, published number will show a slight increase befitting the XMAS time frame, altho retail is croaking due to over expansion of storefronts during the real estate go go years before we killed the golden goose of real estate.
LOWs and HD best bets are to close 15% their mall exposure, even with expansion of the trapped over their head trade in homes under water, the pop recently won't be felt nearly as adroitly until they relieve themselves of too many stores selling to too few people.
Nonetheless, gold and silver are still gaining, indicating failed confidence in anything manipulated.
Which is just about everything except physical gold and silver.
I just paid $2.80 for a bowl of oatmeal. It was 30 cents in 1971. I made one tenth the money I make now, back then.
Where's the "growth". There is no growth. It is a PONZI scheme built on declining dollars being replaced by 6% more worthless dollars every year. We got people winning Nobel prizes for their genius about "diversification". Yeah, I'd diversify too, if EVERYTHING is declining by 6% a year, how can you "lose"?
Except being in paper money.
Well, you obviously can lose being in paper money, and I will have to reconcile myself with the tossup going to, you guessed it, an upward revision of 3% GDP from 2.8%. Since the dollar is being devalued at the rate of 6% per year, that means everybody got 3% poorer AGAIN last year.
Bernookie gets on the stand today to tout "while there are hopeful signs, we must be diligent so as not to fall into a deflationary cycle" and "low interest rates will remain at least through the 2014 time frame".
Why? Because if you look at the refi index, you're beginning to fall off the total number of refi's people are being able to undergo, and that doesn't help housing, which is a benchmark jerks refuse to let go of. Most other societies would let all those carpenters and electricians find other work, but NOooooooooooooooooooo--we have to carry them on the dole until we all run out of buying power.
Unless you're in silver and gold. The only game in town. Since 1933. and 1971. and the near future (2033)
My original premise, the can of Greece gets kicked down the road till post Greek election time in April, seems to be transpiring as there is delay while whoever gets the lion's share of bailout responsibility is being argued by the financial gang in Europe, and they'll dither and blither for another 6 weeks. While that recedes from investor consciousness, assuming any to begin with, the fabrication of prosperity in the market, borne of low interest rates and nowhere else to "invest" chugs along, the value of silver turns positive this Turnaround Tuesday morning, and Smallwood announces he's about to make another "deal" at the 26 Feb Mining Conference. Check out the story as you kitco thru the tulips.
Can he pull off deal that is instantly accretive a la Burn Em Up Barnes, or is this a future stream, remains, as a longer gestating deal will create a buying op? Stay tuned, the quarterly will be very interesting. Don't look for an increase in dividend or share buyback--we're talking taking a chunk of that $700M cash in house and making a buy with it. If you drive cash to zero, that's two deals no debt. I'm just saying.
I'd like to see, which small miner gets bought, and somebody nominate which one. Is this expansion of the current mining arrangements? Details details.
Prepare for another forty or fifty cents today imho. Max Pain 16-17 March is 39.Consumer confidence, a number you can pull out of your butt anytime you like at any level, will be announced at 10 AM. Yeah everybody is thrilled so buy buy buy is my prediction.
Guess where I pulled that prediction out of ? Same place.
Just to bump up over the spam, which has jerks commenting and bringing to the top of the heap, it looks like a runaway day for silver, with the lead I take it those clowns on Yahoo claiming they are long and it looks like the industrial and currency play of the decade. While both Najarian and baldie admitted they were long, looks like that has traction today, and I am ahead.
I plan to buy back my covered calls when they announce the next mine deal, which should be in the next couple weeks. That always drops drawers a couple bux, and should the deal not be instandly accretive, it would be a couple bux a couple weeks imho.
In the meantime, wheeee!
Time to go listen and see what Smallwood had to say today at the miner's conference. Wonder if he talks about the shorts pushing the stock all over the place irrespective of the value of silver.
This has been going on for a week and a half.
Well, I surprise myself--how could I ever think the squabbling over who pays how much for the Greek package would come to the forefront as another excuse for not being "responsible".
The argument over who kicks in how much when has put a damper on markets this morning across the board, when it looks like the can has been kicked into the gutter. It's not back to the drawing board, but enough in the market to sell off this morning almost across the board.
Who does the headline news blame? Why saber rattling causing oil to pop to $110, as if the first $70 didn't count. The herd is spooked by rattling pots and pans, and it's off to negative territory.
If you expect any good news from Lowes or the housing index, my call is, it's slipping on Greece.
My favorite line is the one by BOA CEO who said, when defrauded in the Merril Lynch buyout deal of some two years ago orchestrated by John Thain, "how was I to know the deal was fraudulent, I'm just the CEO."
This guy controls 1 of every 7 dollars that constitute America's GDP, and admits he hasn't the brains of an ox.
This is, our financial leaderchit at work.
And you could have bought BRK for 70c on a dollar 10 years ago. Only a dollar isn't worth what it was 10 years ago. Silver was the better investment then as it is now. Wish I knew this 10 years ago.
Yeah, I do think the worst of the market is over. I just lost my job, and thinking I should go back to trading. Job sucks, I make 400 a day and get all kinds of craps from people. I am at an age, I'm tired of it. I have enough buying power to buy 3000 shares of slw a day. It's easy to make a buck a share a day, that's 3000 a day. Just look at slw, the daily peak and valley is so dramatic. I know I can do it. And in this market condition, it will good for longs. For some reason, I just can't do shorts, it doesn't fit my personality. The market condition for the next 10 years should be good for longs. Please help me persuade myself, not to get sucked into a job. I gotta be right on this.
I'm in exactly the same existential position as you--out of a job, but with just enough to cover all my needs, and about 1/3rd your resources. My "job" is to trade and make $1000 a trading day. I "ALWAYS" have a regular job app out there--it makes me feel like I am not just trading with no way out.
We need to find the day's trading range, which takes patience and watchful waiting. Buy on the dips following slow and fast stochastics, and Bollinger Bands, awaiting a double down if our first guess fails. Never trade more than one third your stash total. Find yourself even or a loser for the day, pop a one month call in the money on half the shares, and sweat that part till at parity. Position over the next few days similarly.
This is not easy. The bear raids, whether orchestrated by whoever, or just flipovers to one month future K's, provide long ops, with double downs a couple dimes below.
You can play call options the same way, but I only buy in the money options with very little premium, because these suckers really have to move. Last two weeks prior to option expiration, they move penny for penny with very little potential time premium.
Here's a ploy that has merit. Here's how to create that stash I am talking about.
Buy SLW at $38, sell a one year leap for $6.5, only play with the $6.5 for daytrading purposes. That way you're playing with other people's money. More bread and less pressure.
Nothing's perfect, but if you must eat the money on a daily basis to supply life essentials, remember you must sandbag 2 year's worth of your cash to make that happen, so as to take some pressure off.
Nobody, not Buffett or Gates, makes good decisions under pressure of supplying yourself food clothing and shelter for you and yours.
Example: You've $700K. Sandbag $200,000 for two year budget for life's needs. You've half a million in shares--13000. Sell 1/3 35's, 37's, 40's due Jan 13 for an average of $6.5 at around the $38.50 mark. You have $85K to play with, mostly other people's money.
That alone, is a 20% rate of return if you don't do a thing but watch daily. You're "protected" down to $31 if you don't do anything at all with the proceeds.
You're call. So far it is working for me.