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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • yourdeadmeat69 yourdeadmeat69 Mar 10, 2012 8:05 AM Flag

    12-16 Mar Eco Calendar Fedspeak: No QE III

    If markets are again predicting more QE, the metals will come under pressure under another disappointment only offset by those who know, QE III is not only underway, it is substantially bankrolling the Europe bailout indirectly. It's smart money versus the little guy, and the mine fields, if this week portends the same the last time, is the FOMC meeting in which no new news is not good news, and the Bernookie kerfluffle the next day.

    I figure that, along with the new mine deal probably announced 22 March along with 4th QTR results, will weigh on the downside for SLW. All the other upside? Too well known to repeat.

    With some expected inflation at the CPI and PPI, the Bernank has already tipped his hand: the expected pop in CORE and "real" inflation will be tolerated so that housing can bubble out of the hole banksters put us in 2003-7. Housing needs to come "back" to at least 1/2 the pop of 2007--worth $400K in 2004, worth $600K by 2007--now $375K, needs to become about $495K--call it minimum, ten to 12 years from 2008, allowing 10 years of loan paying, you'd be able to sell without coming up with money out of pocket--barely.

    And of course, all that fiat they're printing in your stock account, they expect you to give it to the banks. See how that works?

    Quadruple option expiration makes for a noisy week next. GLTA.

    Monday Mar 12

    4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
    6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 3-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET
    Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET

    Tuesday Mar 13
    NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 7:30 AM ET ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET
    Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET Redbook 8:55 AM ET Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET
    4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 10-Yr Note Auction 1:00 PM ET
    FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:15 PM ET

    Wednesday Mar 14
    MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET Current Account 8:30 AM ET
    Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET Ben Bernanke Speaks 9:00 AM ET
    EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET 30-Yr Bond Auction 1:00 PM ET

    Thursday Mar 15
    Weekly Bill Settlement 3-Yr Note Settlement 10-Yr Note Settlement 30-Yr Bond Settlement
    Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET Producer Price Index 8:30 AM ET Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET
    Treasury International Capital 9:00 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET
    Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00 AM ET EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
    3-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET 6-Month Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET
    10-Yr TIPS Announcement 11:00 AM ET Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET Money Supply 4:30 PM ET

    Friday Mar 16
    Quaduple Witching Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET
    Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET

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    • Dividends--the anniversary date for the March dividend is--you guessed it, quadruple witching day. They might postpone till 19-21 March, in anticipation of announcing a new deal or two the 22nd of March, as offsetting events. This is going to be a week where share price is going to be all over the place imho.

      Counting on fingers and toes, and thinking Smallwood is going to do his promise--make a deal instead of upping the dividend, my prediction is--same 9 pennies--meaning December silver is about the same as this quarter--AND announcde a $450-500M dollar deal with oh, $5.95 per ounce, reflecting increased refinery costs and BE for the mine paying for the up front cash infusion.

      I would suspect Smallwood would use cash in hand--his choice, cash in hand for divvy or cash in hand for deal--lent credence to the deal coming from accumulated cash flows rather than fresh money.

      Freshly borrowed money however, is so rediculously low, I would not be surprised at a "hedge", with 1/2 the cash coming from debt and half from current coffers. Since SLW shareowners history is rather cash than debt, that is the direction I lean.

      9 pennies. Ex div 16 or 19-21 Mar. One deal, all cash, or at least half cash, half debt.

      Share price? $33.5-$36.95 over next ten days, and I haven't a clue when pops and drops might occur.

      We could always slip on Greece.

      • 1 Reply to yourdeadmeat69
      • I think most of the these events are noises. Just read the yahoo finance titled article, it is bullish in the general market. I kinda agree with that view.

        Let's just look at Friday's performance. The general market rose in a pretty significant way. The PM market dropped down early morning, but later chimed in except SLW. People cried out manipulation and I agree. SLW can do it in one day, but they cannot keep doing it if the Price of silver keep rising in the green. So I tend to think next week will be bullish in the general market, and the price of silver and gold will rise slightly in favor of the bigger picture of inflation. That means SLW will rise sheepishly in the general condition with some deep drops attempted by the shorts (meaning, haha, the morgans and the like.)

        That much said, I think the Earning report following next week will trump all the economic reports of the coming week. Even Bernanke's big mouth will not matter. Specially after the strong effect of his mouth last week. This time his mumbles will not mean anything. Cause people already expect that there will be no QE3, even though QE3 in reality already happened. To be or not to be is no longer the question. So it's gonna be a non event. Not sure how he will time the market for the election. Most likely he will try to shake the market on the 2nd half on the year. In his eyes this market so far is just about right. He doesn't need to do anything. So my guess next week his talk will be much ado about nothing.

        In terms of Q report. That's more significant. Actually very significant. Not sure how the market will interpret. Never predictable. With a hot stock like SLW I tend to guess that we will run up before then drop, and if we don't run up before we will afterwards. Either way I'm just hoping POS will help us.

        No matter what happens, if we gone up too much you know how will whack us. If we gone down too much we always hope that the POS will help us. This is the reason why we invest in SLW. Nothing is for sure except there will be inflation, and the price of silver will go up.

    • Harvey Organ speaks again to no QE III and a market correction as a result. On the other hand, he is bullish on silver based on short contracts being folded on the COMEX.

      Remember SLW is a stock. My feeling remains the same: waiting for QE III will give us nada--the big complaint is trillions lying on the Fed books still waiting to be deployed.

      Tuesday FOMC notes may be same old same old, and markets are looking for more easing. Wednesday, Bernanke opens his mouth and proscribes fragile economy with zero involvement other than jawboning, watch the market sell off as he speaks.

      Trade accordingly.

    • A description of mental illness is that somebody is emotionaly into their thoughts instead of being rational. The more emotional an individual is; the sicker he is. A psychotic is totally emotional with no rational thought.

    • Slow news day, note auctions precede the cringe in front of the FOMC notes, and Bernookie kerfluffle on Wed morning. Those hoping for an announced, rather than stealth QE3 are in for a disappointment. Not even a low irate stretchout till 2018, which is required, to inflate housing above drowned loan levels.

      The eco is improving, retail will show some gains borne of decrepit dollar devaluation, and naturally, best selling hotties in the home market are $700-$1.1M homes. Usually, lower price housing leads, this time, the few, the rich and the bankers are out in force. Might as well, the corruption of the system is old news.

      Hopefully those big buck homes are being sold to more than 2 earner, both McD employed partners in life. Don't look for any relief on the political front--one Party has a candidate worth $200,000,000 he thinks speaking engagements for $400K are chump change, the other guy needs more poor people he calls--voters.

      Talk about a rock and a hard place.

    • I know you don't like shorts, but when you see an anomoly like that, you might try taking a position in put option below the money, with no time premium. They'll be at their lowest.

      Then as the stock declines to "catch up" with the POS, you get rewarded. I'm talking hedge, without surrendering your long position.

      There are option trading books you can take out at the library and explanations of strategies if you'll google them, and they are free.

    • I just answered you a bunch, and it disappeared...

      OK, it seems we are having a one on one conversation...Perhaps we should do a IM

    • No I haven't. Thanks for the recommendation. My suspicion is it's going to be just like the currency war.

      slw is behaving strangely today. The rise at the opening is with big volumes. And we are out performing gold. It's strange.

    • Your dead meat, look at this:

      I think your calendar is better...LOL....

    • And... they're off...and it's retail sales at 0830. retail sales 1/2 cars, 1/2 "the rest", cars are booming (aluminum use is skyrocketing AA fans), and the dollar is gaining on the outside, dollar gaining, Pac Rim soaring, as destruction of currency is coming up your rear, coming up your rear, it's a yen for destruction of currency.

      Now just before lunch, everyone takes a breather in the backstretch, no not your brother on the phone with that list of phone numbers lost by Sigma Phi Nothing Sorority, it's FOMC notes at 2:30EST, 2:30 EST a drag on the market, drag on the market--no QE3 no QE3 and tho it's no surprise, no surprise as we round the end of day, tomorrow's race is the Bernookie Put at 0900 AM EST, smothering the market with mush words and no QE3, no QE3, and "toleration of inflation" with low irates till end of '14 (I mean '18), low irates against no QE3...

      and the winner is

      all the longs who sleep through this entire mess.

      Wake me option expiration.

    • Business optimism soars with reservations, says the news. I'm confident but worried?

      Flea market crapitallism is survival of the fittest, when wouldn't it be prudent to be paranoid?

      We start with "turnaround Tuesday" up a 1/2 % general market, and flat as a board with PM and SLW a few pennies to the good. Looks like Greece is getting its first dollop of cash before 20 March, so they can return it to bondholders at 50 cents on the dollar, still about 10X too much, but IMF stuffed a dirty sock into that sucking chest wound for now, while the Germans rightfully complain structure change is needed for Europe.

      We get the 1.1% snap in retail mostly autos, so there's the follow thru, but a lot is due to the price of gas, which Bernookie said was a fleeting issue. Not that that is a good thing, but the market heretofore took gas pains as necessary in a "growth" economy. There is no growth. There is only the 6% annual degradation of the dollar. So how the market views that half is problematic, but, any excuse for "up" is a good one.

      They've kicked off the FOMC meeting, that isn't the issue. It's the Bernookie kerfluffle tomorrow that will hearten or scare PM investors. We get the same old same old--so--is SLW going to pop or drop?

      Methinks flat as a board, but for general market moves. New deals, and expanding production, are what counts these days. What is, or isn't baked in, is to be seen.

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