The words in the last FOMC notes being released Tuesday say, if anything negative is afoot, we'll jump on it--yours truly, Benny and the Jests. Or at least jump up and down, there being no bullets left in the quiver. But the words will pop the anticipation, IMHO for some kind of action, which of course is only two fold--low irates pushed back to Dec 15, and TWIST, if there are any bonds the Fed HASN'T bought yet--which is why twisting out another year is functionally meaningless, but has great headline potential. Initial claims comes AFTER, and should provide a neutral to positive betting ground something is going to have to come out of the Federonies. That's the 23rd. New Home sales are totally meaningless, because of all the inventory off the books--another reason to continue low irates and get everybody refi'd we can. The new home industry, in case nobody looked, has been deadmeat since 1995 when Clinton helped the banks empty the nation's coffers by increasing the pool of buyers all the way down to the indigent. I think new orders will be flat to down, inventory is no place to be in the Depression of 2008-18. I see an uptick next week in anticipation of Jackson Hole the following week, but I think conservative betters will try for a longer weekend and beat feet starting Friday, which will probably end flattish.
I have been wrong before, which is why I do covered call options.
Hope you do better.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Aug 21 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes 7/31 - - - - -
Aug 22 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 08/18 - NA NA -4.5% -
Aug 22 10:00AM Existing Home Sales Jul - NA NA 4.37M -
Aug 22 10:30AM Crude Inventories 08/18 - NA NA -3.699M -
Aug 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 08/18 - NA NA 366K -
Aug 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 08/11 - NA NA 3305K -
Aug 23 10:00AM FHFA Housing Price Index Jun - NA NA 0.8% -
Aug 23 10:00AM New Home Sales Jul - NA NA 350K -
Aug 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders Jul - NA NA 1.3% 1.6%
Aug 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders-ex Trans Jul - NA NA -1.4% -1.1%
The market is looking for a bounce, as yesterday Bulliard's statement, a gloom and doomer for those who want QEIII, drove us into the toilet in the general market.
Bullyerd's comments were designed to test the waters "what if I gave no QEIII verbiage and everybody came to moan and groan?"
31 July FOMC notes changed the language from some want QEIII to now, many want QEIII.
Europe doesn't help, because everytime they get close to some kind of remedial structure, work or not, there's an election in some country (Holland) that threatens the voting on some remedy. It doesn't help that it is taking years to come up with remedies--incumbents are dying of old age in the interim--unless they're zombies new guys have to be convinced all over again.
Reflex pop has to be held up by sales reports today--I don't think we see help there.
SLW went down when silver went up dramatically yesterday. On the other hand, SLW had a pop on the CC the new mine, etc and had resumed 2X the POS at these levels not seen since silver first got back over $21.
At this hour silver is off about 1/4%.
I'm off to catch a few hours of shuteye.
Silver blasting upward, as the world plays the Emperor's New Clothes. 2.5% up overnight. WoW!
Thursday what usually happens, continuing claims takes center seat. But, what's bad is good, because the cruddier the numbers the more fuel is added to the "stimulus" fire.
Will the public get all gaga about pushing back zero irates to 2015 or 2016 or buying all of our bonds ourselves for another TWIST again, like we did last year or so? Print print print.
Low irates have kicked up DC home prices 10% YoY. How much is stimulatum excretatum and how much is the quadrennial migration of the party hounds and hangers on? The answer is a little of both. Especially in an election year.
As they print print print.
A retreat to +.8, from +2.5, I think the range for today's silver is in--Continuing claims are clams, upward revision to last reporting period, upward 4000 this period.
The Urine-peons have bought into the change in the FOMC Committee language from "some" favor stimulatum excretatum, to "many".
By Sept it will be "most" just in time for the last meeting before the election.
This is about as predictable as 1/2 the marriages in the US ending in failure.
You're sure of the statistics, but unsure which ones.
This is going to be a roller coaster day, but remember, bad is good, if you believe in stimulatum excretatum, from those wonderful empty guns groupies at the FOMC.
So they Twist forever in the wind, and drop irates to zilch--some folks are getting the message that if joehomeowner can't glom onto the money at 3% under any circumstance, WTF good is it?
Worried about effects of easing, easing is more likely, the same )(*&(&^ words we heard two weeks ago, the market is reacting to the alleged stretchout of low irates.
But it is really drivel as I said it would be, the Fed is out of bullets and doing the Japanese zombie routine.
NAS punches to upside. For how long? We'll see, but I see flatline at end of day.
Silver is up 3/4% overnight, market is downish at about 1/4% across the board, and today we get the 31 July FOMC notes whoopeephuggindoooooooo....
Two weeks from Friday, we get Jackson cornHoled, but for now, rectums itch for more stimulation.
Curiously, can't log onto Scottrade. I am sad. This happens once in a great while, usually in the middle of a trade.
Still and all, they handle themselves adroitly. Even their regular platform has a plethora of goodies.
If you can get to your account that is.
If existing homes turns a corner, we may get the market action that failed to take us to new highs in the general market tomorrow Wed 22 Aug.
I know it's OT but the folks who invested in FB really got reamed. Insiders are dumping, even Cramer ranted about this guy Diehl, the dilution scheduled and not accounted for by the unwashed who invested, threatens over the next three months to take the stock to $8 and that is if it holds it 70PE. I can think of a zillion ways to make money, but if they don't that stock is going to be a penny dreadful by XMAS in the style of XM and SIRI pay for play radio.
Silver up sharply--Market bets stimulus Q3 is a Jackson Hole in One.
Investors are like the crowd congratulating themselves today on the Emperor's fine selection of new clothes, and silver, after dawdling, is blasting forward.
I am a consistent skeptic with respect to Europe's quagmire, US's huge commitment to Q1/2 still unspent at Operation Bernookie HQ.
The market is betting on a tsunami.
love your posts...im reading...this lovely SLW horse is sooooo gonna run, go my sweet SLW run to 50 yes you can do it!! they have jkept you in the cage too too long!! the world has worthless currencies and so does the US, and our debt outweighs all it's worth...go SLW go!!!
Market's up, silver flatline, I'm getting mixed signals whether today or tomorrow the FOMC notes are released in writing, parsing over the same "we're ready" to do --something--will reveal a heightened attention to the economy (I guess they were asleep all the time before).
SAND just got listed on NYSE, I wonder if jumping over those increased requirements of fidelity have meaning anymore--Paris Hilton's implants have more substance.
Steam is gathering under SLW at a slow low volume rate as air is taken out of the dollar by our illustrious leadership which thinks destroying our currency is the way to prosperity.
Looks like we don't leave Afghanistan for years. The Taliban promises if you help the Americans, you can't get buried in a holy grave.
Another group of people more worried about the proper placement of rotting meat. Next they'll be calling being flushed down a toilet,burial at sea.
Well, come to think of it.......
Looks like Wed for the notes, my bad.
China is stealthily buying up gold assets with eyes allegedly on Barrick assets.
One chessmove at a time, when the time is right, as I have said for three years now, China will take over the world without having to fire a single shot.
Already foreign buying of our real estate is reaching record highs.
It does increase the price for the rest of us, although those shoots are weeds growing on the dessert.
Folks ask how the Chinese can afford $$40,000 cars like the Buick Regal, their new toy. Simple, their houses are $20-40K, so most of their income to date is discretionary in our terms.
Think lower Alabama, where the homes are still $55K to $105K for about 1250-1750 square feet.
Se how that works?
and that's just a year ago. Where ya been? I been talking the Clinton Barney Freak lefty "house is an entitlement not a privilege borne of financial ability to pay" for about three years now.