Stolen from yahoo here are the big dates and big events for the next 75 days before the Presidential election with my take on the effects.
Aug. 27-30: The Republican National Convention starts in Tampa, FL. Should be an uplifting series of events for the market if the public feels like celebrating what is left of our political system, either side of the aisle.
Aug. 31: Bernanke gives his annual speech in Jackson Hole, WY. The Fed is supposed to be academic only, but 2011 Bernanke laid out Operation Twist and 2010 he laid out QE2. So, one week from today, we see if Bernanke makes policy known, 3 for 3 years in a row, at Jackson Hole.
Sept. 4-6: The Democratic National Convention starts in Charlotte, NC. providing at least nostalgic boost at the country we used to be.
Sept. 5: The European Central Bank governing council meets. eCB President Draghi is supposed to outline his plans to nail down, exactly what he means in execution, in re "whatever it takes to save the Eurozone". His problem: the solutions drag on so long, countries change leadership, and the matters have to be redressed with this season's powermongers. Holland a good example.
Sept. 7: Monthly jobs report for August is released. The numbers don't change for the better, scratch any pop from this event, as if I have to tell you.
Sept. 12: A German court rules on the constitutionality of the EU's bailout fund. If this isn't a fait accompli, the whole deck of cards drops through the floor in Europe, the dollar soars, the euro crashes, and PM's get taken along for a roller coaster ride.
Sept. 12-13 FOMC meeting makes-or-breaks QE3 this side of the election equation. More importantly it gives a boost, maybe the last hurrah, to the other side of go away in May--Halloween usually starts the stock buying circus until May.
Adding something in the way of a QE3, more TWIST, low irates till 2015 is something the market needs to hear, however ineffectual. The next meeting is not until late October, too close to the election and frankly, too late to do more than undo the damage not moving in September would inaugurate.
I got the binge, the cringe, and the it's allright takeoff on the nose, but the it's allright takeoff really took off.
The PM crowd is sure as shootin banking on some kind of ease--and they should at this point be pretty sanguine. The part of kicking the door closed to banks for redeposit back in the reserve, or leaving it there? I think the best bet is to charge the banks negative interest. That is key to the PM feeling QE 3 is really just letting QE 1 and 2 money free.
I think we are off to challenge the old silver high in the next couple months, as long as no one remembers the fiscal cliff, and that is a huge whopping 123 days away or so--might as well be the next century.
Ride em cowboy till then--minus about two months.
for his words not deeds, will have to be "jusdt right". Let's see, 3PM BST is 10AM EST--that's when his nibs the Bernank takes to the boards.
I think. Folks looking for the helicopter to be anything more than warming on the pad need to think again, so be on the lookout for the binge, the cringe, and the awright let's wait some more vote.
If I were out of bullets, I would say, the Fed as a committee is looking at the stats again (in the early SEPT time frame, for what tools to "move forward". He might list the tools we know, the TWIST end dates, the easing time frame, but I think that waits for Sept.
Don't think he'll say anything with specificity between National Committee meetings, because the DNC moves next week with its brand of rhetoric and it will look self serving.
I think the market is anticipating the meeting minutes this 10 AM EST morning, we're getting the binge before the cringe, and a flat to uppish finish imho.
Yesterday's selloff soaked today in optimism, it all depends on the parsed verbiage, and who's on tap erev this Labor Day Holiday weekend.
I took off for a few days, so I can be with you this weekend and holiday for scintillating chatter and obvious drivel.
Some of you think my disappearance coincides too closely with the public appearance of Clint at the RNC meeting.
I do Jimmy Stewart far better.
Here are some other events or potential events that may impact markets;
Aug 27-28-Isaac makes landfall in the Panhandle region.
Sept 1 to Oct 30-Something in between Isaac and Samuel hit the Gulf and impacts oil rigs.Always exciting for commodity markets.
October 1st or thereabouts-Benny's Jets (the other Benny)hit Iran's Nuclear facility. The Flintstones react with their usual rhetoric of anhilating the infidals,and commodities rock or markets roil.
More exposure given to who will be chosen as Fed Chairman IF R & R get elected. Ben's continuation is good for the markets.Unknown is not.
The mere fact that the term Fiat being discussed in the NY Times, as related to going back to a gold standard is enough to cause the left wing bloggers to maintain a constant vigil over the repubes statements. It's probably worth $30-50 bucks in AU and 40,000 quarts of pepto bismol for The entire NY Times editorial board.
Other than the Republican event in Florida being blown back to Tuesday by Hurticane Fatsamatta, the attention to gold as a currency should be worth a pop, however arcane those with no brains attend that potential.
The metal in question should be silver, which is still "cheap" enough to fabricate usable pocket sized coins with alloy to make a difference.
Those who will say it isn't the metal content, it's the policy of print print print to provide the appearance of growth that is the problem--and it is the other shoe.