Monday Labor Day is a day off, but business is waiting for QE a FOMC Meeting Away following weeks. They'll be waiting for TWIST extensions of one year, maintenance of low irates shifted out another year, and here's the biggee--the closing the Fed gravy train for reserves parked at the Fed in support of banks--maybe even charging-a negative interest rate. There's nothing like costs escalating for doing nothing when joehomeowner doesn't get a crack at the first two QE--QE 3 then becomes, if you won't play nice, I get to stuff Fed larders. If nothing is announced of significance post Sept meeting, there's one left in October, frankly, it doesn't matter--the extra month does nothing to help or hinder hiring by election time. But there is one unintended good consequence from charging banks for parking cash designated for them in the Fed Reserve. It's only a trickle, but, it's a great power play. As I have complained, you can't have all positive reinforcement,you have to have negative incentive, and with any luck, the political leadership will stop being candy oriented only, and supply some caster oil to the banksters.
Obummer is stuck with 8.3ish %. FOMC members went from "some" want more easing to "many" want more easing so adroitly, they had to float Bulliard, the stick in the mud, front and center to say that sentiment was "not fresh". That leveled the market, so litmus test of what happens without the Bernankie put being exercised is a fait accompli.
I don't care if last Fed meeting notes weren't "baked while you sleep" and lay in the back of the refrigerator until those sentiments grew fangs, one month delay in more "easing" drivel wont make a difference. But the wail heard in Jackson Hole overtook the disappointment of nothing immediate, we got the binge, the cringe, and the up finish, the latter much more than I expected, silver shining through especially SLW.
I expect employment and claims to do worse now that the summer hiring is over. Just a smidge but enough to push the Fed's excuse button (it's seasonal) so we're set up for the "easing".
Kick back Monday is exactly what I am going to do. Last week the Repukelicans touted 12M new jobs, without a single "how to" in any of it. Next week Obummer gets to tout 8.3% sucks, but it's better than 9.8%, and "I" got Osomeone's Bin Farten and "I" have been shrinking govt--so much so it crimps the 8.3% by about .1%.
Every little bit hurts.
Did you take the 45 minute Jackson Hole cringe, to binge before the spectacular finish?
Every little bit helps.
Sep 4 10:00 AM ISM Index Aug - 49.0 50.0 49.8 -
Sep 4 10:00 AM Construction Spending Jul - 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% -
Sep 4 2:00 PM Auto Sales Aug - NA NA 5.0M -
Sep 4 2:00 PM Truck Sales Aug - NA NA 6.0M -
Sep 5 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/01 - NA NA -4.3% -
Sep 5 8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. Q2 - 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% -
Sep 5 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs - Rev Q2 - 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% -
Sep 6 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Aug - NA NA -44.5% -
Sep 6 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Aug - 150K 140K 163K -
Sep 6 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/01 - 375K 375K 374K -
Sep 6 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 08/25 - 3300K 3300K 3316K -
Sep 6 10:00 AM ISM Services Aug - 51.0 52.2 52.6 -
Sep 6 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 09/01 - NA NA 3.778M -
Sep 7 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Aug - 140K 130K 163K -
Sep 7 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Aug - 155K 145K 172K -
Sep 7 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Aug - 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% -
Sep 7 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Aug - 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% -
Sep 7 8:30 AM Average Workweek Aug - 34.5 34.5 34.5
Well, unemployment came down to a whopping 8.1% with only 96K jobs. Next sale: Brooklyn Bridge. Don't think for a moment I am not thrilled at the turnaround from minus 1.5% silver to positive a smidge, and probably growing the rest of the day as it heads to test the old highs.
The only thing turning a corner is my stomach at the manipulation--folks are being made to believe hiring is making a dent on the 17% unemployed and underemployed, just before the election that has us choosing between dumb and dumber, the rich guy who doesn't think he nets enough and wants to spend $2 TRILLION for defense the Pentagon didn't ask for, totally unfunded, and the other doofus that thinks the middle of a Depression is a great time to spend $20 TRILLION on health care we never asked for with MORE money we don't have,
I'll believe we are in the late stages of a manufactured stock rally when the cash inflows from joesixpac start coming back into the market, and the gobs of cash that have been storehousd from four years of collecting by big business, goes after the rest of the population.
In the meantime, whether real or contrived, it's a Vanilla Sky moment, and I am not yelling for tech support, if it is all a lucent dream, let's not wake up now.
After all the NAS is only 40% off it's all time high in 2000, and adjusted for the degradation of the dollar since then, has to hit 9500 to be even with that circa 2000 number.
The sky may be the limit, because they keep lowering the floor, but it looks all the same to the pundits who blather about acceptable rates or desired rates of inflation, as if that made any sense whatsoever because like she said in that flick, every moment is another chance to turn it all around......
Oh boy, the silver crowd is really anticipating QE 3 bigtime, I hope they are not too disappointed if the Bernank comes out with wait and see, or, the QE3 isn't some demonstrative new initiative instead of the same old same old--twist, extend low irates till 2015, and my favorite, let's charge the banksters for cash stashed in reserves.
Lots of exuberance. May fortune follow the foolish.
Kinda funny...the "doublespeak" we must endure.
Obama may tout the decline reported in the BLS calculation of the "official unemployment rate". But there are now fewer workers, month over month, in the work force who can
possibly pay taxes and fund the politicians' huge appetite to spend America's
less than adequate revenue. So we learn that less people are employed overall
in America but we cheer a declining unemployment rate. Go figure!
But, now the dollar is getting crushed to multi-month lows, silver and gold are screaming upwards, and SLW will enjoy a fine day. Yeah...I think there is now an excellent chance Bernanke will launch QE3 next week. And if so...SLW's rise might be "breathtaking"!
Tonight, some of the pop in the silver and gold spot markets is evaporating as folks cringe before tomorrow's unemployment pic. We have had ADP fly one day and the overall rate dive or at least phart at the finish the next...there is no one to one correlation. Futures are uppish to flat general market--we won't see anything going on till 0530 left Coast time tomorrow morn.
In the meantime, watch your six. Silver is off 1.25% but, the night is young.
Clinton taps on the Republican shoulders last night and asks "what's the plan"? It's a legitimate question. Clinton taps the shoulders of Republicans and remembers that in the Reagan years he increased the National Debt 400% and in the Bush years, 200%. Clinton asks "where's the pop in defense of 2 TRILLION going to come from, more money than the Pentagon even asked for, and for what purpose?"
You're going to say but Clinton asked these questions. Remember truth isn't in what is asked or claimed by a somebody, it's what is true or not. If Hitler told you water was wet, would it be dry? No, you're going to fact check that yourself.
It makes me uneasy that I have to have my independently verified, for me, facts repeated at a Democratic podium as a Ron Paul supporter. But something happened this morning when the jobs report came out fifty percent higher than the idiot pundits predicted.
The market roared, and silver and gold took off because they believe it is stimulus oriented, and inflation prone, which is what happens when you get full employment, and housing prices have increased ten percent in some communities off the low.
Add stimulus and what will you get? Monetary evaporation and commodity price growth. Add full employment, you don't need the helicopter, the glide path of the economy is good enough to bouy everything. And as to silver, you get both the industrial side and currency side working for you.
GLTA. Tomorrow, I predict some attenuation in the unemployment picture, but the unemployed percent to remain the same, as jobless disgruntled get out of Mom's basement and start looking for work.
And we'll rock another 1.5%
Monthly job numbers, manipulated as much as they are with seasonal adjustments and fictional birth/death business modeling, has the potential as a huge momentum changer. Obviously, monthly job's report is the perceived catalyst for Fed Reserve action. But now that Draghi at the ECB is opening the floodgates to European monetization of debt, won't Bernanke want to do the same in the U.S. regardless of a possible decent job's report? Silver and gold markets watch these developments with much anticipation. I, as well, am getting antsy. I'd like to see gold hold above $1700 and silver above $32 tomorrow. If they do, September promises to be a good month! JMO
Initial and continuing claims right in the middle of the Dems big circus, this is going to be interesting around 0530 left coast time. Both parties are pointing to the rich, one enhancing the position of the top one percent, the other, including so many muddle class in the assessment of who is "rich", the only thing the middle class is assured is everybody who wants to be in charge has them in the crosshairs. 47% of America doesn't pay taxes, on the contrary, they collect food stamps and other props, and the one percent don't think they keep enough of their proceeds, so who else to carry the burden is left? Take your time.
Our money is worth ten cents on the 1971 dollar and although the general market seems to be reacting to the latest news about the financial "crisis" in Europe (how much of a crisis can it be if it has been lingering for 48 months?)--silver is up 1.5% overnight on the assumption that silver and gold are still money and the govts of the world have to print print print to pay for--"entitlements" and defense finances that have us bombing the Flintstones back to Jurassic Park. Who'da thunk?
Co's are still reporting record profits, then getting all misty eyed about the future, and the stocks that are the reason folks invest plummet by chunks and heaps.
We bietch about hope and change, if we don't hear tomorrow will be rosy, no matter what the actuals are now we suck the life out of the stock price.
If folks haven't caught on, that co's will downplay the future to add fuel to the fires under new stimulation measures, you don't know what collective conscious is--it's a conclusion everybody shares and acts upon as if they made it up in the back room in some conspiracy.
The current of decency that used to underlie America is a distant memory. Highest number of people incarcerated in the world, highest number of people believing in angels, more treasure devoted to world security nobody asked us to provide than the next 25 free nations combined, we're 30% of the financing for the International Monetary Fund, the international part is nickels and dimes--we need to let the world take more care of itself, while we do likewise for ourselves. The Republicans produce our favorite debt clock, then tout more money for the military from -where? The Dems are thrilled at 47% who don't pay taxes, they call them, voters.
Congress is headed for a Jan fiscal cliff and another four years of gridlock.
And silver and gold just keep climbing back headed to challenge old highs. What's that old Dean Martin song lyric, "I saw a dollar yesterday, and the wind blew it away..."?
There's no guarantee that we'll make it to January.
Now that the metals have returned to their rightful place as a financial barometer, all we know for certain is there is some really bad weather ahead. You've still a window to do something to prepare.
Read John Wesley Rawles' "Survivors", an interesting novel that may enable you to wrap your head around how the butt end will fall out of the world.
AAPL new equipment popped that stock, and the NAS got going yesterday inspite of a dull market heaving heavy sighs over new construction--why anybody cares for new construction while we have all that housing overhang has been a theme of mine for years on this board, and in conversation, since. Pac Rim, especially Japan, looking at our DOW and S and P only, did its mimic the US routine. Considering the lack of manufacturing, and most of our base is in the Pacific Rim, they've reason to cringe. All metals are following the losers overnight, it will take the US opening to make a difference and that looks to be off 3/4%. The DEMS continue the marathon showing of that old TV show "Lie to Me". You know how to tell if politicians are lying pandering dorks?
Their mouths are moving.
Coupla folks don't like the Todd Rungren analogy, so "CAN WE STILL BE FRIENDS"? I'm more interested in why the FBI had 12 million IPAD user accounts on drive which was hacked and partially released by "Anonymous". It certainly makes Facebook the source of private data for anybody with a keyboard. The other stat bothering the market is construction is down nearly a percent against idiotic economists who think all that glut of housing and commercial property out there is just painted on.
Looks like Bernookie may have enough excuse to twist the rubber band motoring his QE III helicopter, but the market won't see that until COB. I suspect Europe, which never went away, is buzzing in the back of some players minds.
Anyway the Dems come up the rest of the week with episode two of "Lie to Me", so unless somebody is going to come out of the woodwork and say "LET'S USE SILVER AS IF IT WERE MONEY" today will fritter away followed by aimless wandering.
Like this post.
With the new format, yahoo takes a limited difficult rating system and limited search, and escalates complexity and bias by 100X, matching exactly the degradation of the dollar in 80 years, making this the first fiat bulletin board and pushing spam to the head of the class. Wonderful.
A large consolation prize is the 1.4% pop in the POS and 1/2% pop in the DOW/SandP/NAS follow though Friday's inflationary anticipatory pop. What would the world do if the US didn't degrade its buying power vis monetary stimulus? The world will all be billionaires, we just have to reduce our middle class to serfdom, and everybody will be ecstatic and rich. We'll be billionaires also, except a billion dollars will buy only two Subway sandwiches.
In the meantime, as reported four weeks ago when the Urine-peons kicked the fiscal can down the road a month, that month is coming to a close just as the Dems get together to figure out the next Socialistic answer to questions nobody has asked, like Johnson and Medicare, and now Oblamer and Oblamacare.
Folks want the government to stop printing money and cut off the limited useless war routines bombing the Flintstones back into the Stone Age, and then whining into an empty sky on Sunday begging forgiveness by believing in just the right godhead. TEA PARTY advocates say, if we return to a gold standard, silver standard, we won't be able to print money for these efforts, which of course, is not true. We'd have to sell bonds, and there is nothing to prevent print print printing those vehicles--except the one to one correlation folks hope would happen in regard to inflation. Folks think that is sawing off the limb our currency is standing on so adroitly, we'd think twice about it--Truman had to and used the bomb.
In the meantime, if you want to guage how much stupidity in fiscal arenas there are, you have Europe's political leadership flying around for face to face talks on a continent you can drive just about any place to in about 8 hours, let alone use VOIP or email or the friggin phone. Maybe that's how Merkel twists arms, agree with me or I show up. Just what is she doing behind closed doors, and more importantly, who'd want some of that? Great leverage, there.
Everybody is betting next week the Fed, starring Bennie and the Jerks, heave another quadgazillion dollars at the 8.3% unemployment we expect to see end of week--my thinking is without any arrows left in the quiver, QE3 will be letting QE1 and 2 free from Fed reserve status, by withdrawing the act of paying interest on the balance, instead, CHARGING interest to banks covered by that "insurance".
Toss in low interest rates until end of 2015, you read it first here years ago--I don't see rates popping until end of 2018. We have to get fifty percent past homeowner values in 2007 to absorb the huge hit that will make on "recovered" home prices.
We first need some banks to get negative incentive to convert them from investing back into the govt, and do the original job of lending money to joehomeowner by offering replacement refi loans for anybody up to 125% LTV who has a job and ability to pay. That would throw massive amounts of cash into the market.
On a personal note, Bennie needs to have Oblamer elected if Romney's dump Bennie bleat of last week holds water. I'm not pumping or dumping there, except to say that changing leadership in a world still relying on printed bonds and fractional reserve leaves all that cancer in place, so the elements of QE 3 that I just made up, need to be in place and working.
In the meantime America is stuck between tweedle dee and tweedle dumb this election, and neither offer any substance to get us past a monetary system that relies on paper, and not things.
Value money in things, not hot air. What will they think of next?
Chrysler hits one out of the ballpark, and good news is bad news, because bad news means stimulatum excretatum. The silver bulls haven't addressed that today yet, they're off banking on a QE III. I think it's the release of QE I/II that will make QE III unique.
If Ben will start penalizing banks that park money, I suspect it will have the same effect as high taxation did for business in 1955--then it was might as well hire, we're losing money to Uncle anyway, and today it can be might as well lend, I am losing money to Uncle anyway.
Sounds to me like a plan, but I am waiting just like everyone else.
With no leadership from the US, an expectation that always baffles me, the blast in silver of 1.1% Dunday to Monday is stalling out tonight. It's a Vanilla Sky moment when reality sets in, that the world even at 90% degradation, is still dependent on our frail lead.
I hope we still have friends in the world when the spit hits the fan, the dollar becomes a cinder, and we yell for "Tech Support".
I'm having an alcatel moment actually.
Moses says we got a window now and we need to prepare,so, I'm checking my supplies to make sure I have enough lentils downstairs. They says Lentils are almost the perfect food, and if you throw in a carrot,it cuts down on the gazz.
If Moses says it's gonna happen,I'm not about to question him.
But while my bags of lentils are accumulating in the basement, I am trading PM miners and building up enough fiat to carry my addiction to veal chops through the winter ahead. My favorite prognosticator of precipitation is trying to convince me the NE will have a harsh winter.
Labor Day, the one day in the year we remember people who make products in our country, before they go back to their corporate masters for the other 364 days a year. Thus we accord one day a year for just about everyone minus 17% under and unemployed, 400M strong, and give it as much credence we give to godheads (one day) and a group of Presidents (one day) and remembrance of our bounty (Thanksgiving) (one day).
The world seems to phart along at a snail's pace without the cauldron of investments boiling over in the US 400AM to 800PM EST daily. PM off a slive, Europe and Pac Rim idling.
While we hold onto the reigns of reserve currency however tenuously, our grip slipping each year, until our money is worthless.
Makes you sweat long sleepless nights.
I wanted to carry this thought forward separately--No one has touted this for a while, but business is waiting for its Benny "fix" before hiring, doing just well thank you based on the 83% fully employed carrying the rest of the economy.
So fixated on free handout, they know if they hire and stats do better in un and underemployment, the Fed will will clam up and move on down the line to no further easing candy, which moves us down the line towards tightening. So there's negative incentive to do any additional hiring until they get the needle from Uncle.
See how that works?