Housing starts, hopefully pitiful so existing homes have a shot, and unemployment claims take the spotlight this week, and we are a month away from the "traditional" pop Nov-May we experience every year, especially a Presidential election year, except, all that voodoo is no longer based on an evolving paper money decrepitude scenario--we're already down to ten cents on the 1971 dollar.
Talk about uncharted waters as the Fed Twists all next year, and keeps interest rates low, with loans you can't qualify for because you're under water and CAN'T QUALIFY.
See how that doesn't work?
Sep 17 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Sep - -3.0 -3.0 -5.9 -
Sep 18 8:30 AM Current Account Balance Q2 - -$125.0B -$125.6B -$137.3B -
Sep 18 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jul - NA NA $9.3B -
Sep 18 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Sep - 38 38 37 -
Sep 19 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/15 - NA NA 11.1% -
Sep 19 8:30 AM Housing Starts Aug - 775K 772K 746K -
Sep 19 8:30 AM Building Permits Aug - 775K 800K 812K -
Sep 19 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Aug - 4.55M 4.58M 4.47M -
Sep 19 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/15 - NA NA 1.994M -
Sep 20 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/15 - 375K 375K 382K -
Sep 20 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/8 - 3300K 3292K 3283K -
Sep 20 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Sep - -5.0 -5.0 -7.1 -
Sep 20 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Aug - 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% -
Today is nutso day, which you can read about in a previous standalone post, so get out those charts and have fun outside the corps investment. Futures are up somewhat, overseas bounced back from a selloff--dead cat or not it's a bounce. One Fed member turned around and went from high to low irate philosophy until decent unemployment numbers are entrenched--remember I was first to predict 2018 back in 2010--you can't unwind 14 years of no doc nonsense in less than 8--we've been at this for 2 years, I'm giving rampant inflation the benefit of the doubt by saying six more years of Fed easing--to 2018--with a 25% cushion to withstand the irate pop to come.
Which is just in time to see another glut of housing previously occupied by dead boomers hit the fan. 20% add on. They won't all drop dead at once, but we'll be clawing back those unoccupied homes on the market for a decade, again. The easy money in housing has been over since 1995--that's how we got into the no doc mess--there aren't enough people chasing houses since the boomers decided to have less kids than the WWII generation.
But I'll be long gone myself, maybe I should take the Reagan attitude of borrow and spend and let you guys worry about it. Tax and spend, given the spend part, is responsible and painful, which is what responsibility means.
We're done with that. Now we got the 2018 Corollas coming out--they'll be $37000 not $18000, a box of TIDE $30 not $15, silver $80 an ounce, not $33, your house you bought for $550,000 now worth $400,000, nominally $800,000. See how that works?
No? There's always daytrading, and today is a prime day. Want to swing trade for a few days over a weekend? You might want to try looking at next week's eco calendar, already published.
Housing up across the board, never mind that new homes compete with older existing homes and don't need that cross hatch, the general market vacillated but finally finished on a small uptick because, addiction to QE crack just announced, shows some cracks too early for some. But overnight reports Red China cooled some more, and the second largest economy in the world hasn't any go go left, disappoints the daytraders. For reasons more to do with gloomy psychology and sell the winner with the loser mentality, gold and silver are taking a beating, as are futures at this wee hour 3AM Pacific Coast time. We are approaching old highs and that makes folks nervous, especially with the news--unrelenting Mid East drivel, tumbling dollar drivel (should be helping the economy, according to idiots who think that the dollar has to be worthless).
We need a surprise number in initial claims, to register some uptick arising from that mini housing boomlet to give the market that surprise factor to get out of its malaise post QE III announcement. Imagine that, looking to real (Cough, sputter, hack, wheeze) economic numbers for a state of the economy.
The election looms as a nauseating reminder just how far we've fallen. That's becoming the quote of the century in all those new TV programs from "Falling Skies" to "Last Resort" to "Walking Dead". Speaking of the Walking Dead, Facebook is on a tear.
Let's see, buy a non monetized freebie that has collected users like flies on chit, all for free, because they might monetize it someday. Avoid silver and gold--because they're real money.
Got it. Hey I'm lousy at timing, I obviously picked the wrong decade to stop drinking.
Looks like we need another 10K off the top of new and continuing claims to get a lift today. Or maybe not, they might not have QE4. I mean it's been a whole week since QE3.
See how that works? No? Me neither.
Movement in job claims is MEH--down this month 3,000 but up in readjustment of previous report the same 3,000--not good, not bad, but not "right" either because of the drag from overseas including making the dollar stronger on top of a weaker growth number from China. So much for the viability of global "hedging" or new world order.
Silver is off the overnight lows right this second, down 1/3 1% at 0741 Central Standard time.
45 minutes till the market opens. Listening to WTOP from DC on my smart phone, I burn up minutes with MEH or bad news.
Not smart for me. I'm still hedged with covered calls, but half are at the money and started well in the money, not good.
Silver is off 2/3rd's% at the midnight hour of 18 Sep. but market futures point to Turnaround Tuesday as folks peep out from under yesterday's awchit downdraft, for no good new reason.
Europe is well on its way to its illusion of inflation, with the promulgation of another structure, a financial "union", so they haven't begun to address their problems, they're still sizing the bandage to place over the sucking chest wound of an economy, They're still maundering where we were March-Sep '09, so they've structure to adopt, stimulus to invoke, before they start their path of degrading their currency and our dollar becomes again, cream of the crap. For a while, because they are only kicking the can down the road. They also have their real estate bubble, much of which is borne by buying our bogus paper.
Two days worth of housing reports should all be negative, most of which is a good thing except for existing housing. You'd think in the past two years new housing would be thought of as a glut on the market digging itself deeper, but for a couple turns, nobody seems to have gotten the basic supply demand model--which includes the culling out of the 1995 deregulation "solution". Nobody gets it. Banks recognized we were running out of qualified new buyers (as the baby glut of 1947 became the no baby drought of 1965 on) pressured the Clinton administration to suspend the rules, and all the Mom and Pop banks were free to become gambling casinos--and it became 1920-29 all over again.
Making banks flush and having society become the final insurers of all that gluttony, while privatizing the gains, is the real reveal just where joemiddleclass sits. He sits in the gally rowing like a good slave, as our "leaders" crack the whip for their real bosses, the financial backers called banks. The galley slaves are the real economy, and they're plumb tuckered. The financial managers keep tossing cold water on the slaves that aren't moving--that stimulus would work if those guys who weren't moving were alive--they're dead, and dragging the oars for the rest of us. And increasing the food supply to the living, those dead bodies can't reach the food or water, while the financiers look into the hold and agree, they just need more food and water, and can't understand why the ship isn't going any faster.
See how that worked out? No? Me neither.
And the turnaround for silver, possibly on the news that the US trade gap narrowed this quarter and last as reviewed by some 3%, may provide some thought processes that as long as we're not spending overseas, and that gap is shrinking (because we're all unemployed and flipping burgers) that the markets somehow make some sense.
That means the stimulatum excretatum isn't going anywhere but the lining of the pants of the banks, but it also means that the beleaguered consumer isn't spending hard earned diluted dollars on dreck. That makes sense, and in a market propped up by risk only investments only the big boys are trading with each other--that provides some bane to capitalize upon.
Eventually that failure to buy all trash Chinese will make it into the Chinese GDP numbers, since they produce all the ethenol laced wine, toys that strangle tots, and material designed to fall apart the moment it is used (Boeing is giving away the farm by teaching China how to make big planes, squandering our technology, until the first 2020 built 747 falls apart after takeoff).
See how that works? Everybody has to have good numbers so that it looks as if everybody is successful, and the only way to rid yourself of pesky competition is to drown the real numbers in fraud, while you take away the buying power of each dollar to cover your tracks and get "everyone" to succeed. Thus the science of diversification, buckshot shotgun investing, makes sense only to those who drink the cool aid of monetization.
See how that works? No? Only in t he short run until the game of musical money stops, and we all wake up? Till then it's a Vanilla Sky and we yell to Bernankie for "tech support" in this lucid monetary dream we have substituted for reality.
And no Penelope Cruz to wake us up.
So unfair. Like SLW off a quarter while silver futures are up 1/2%. Folks tend to forget the days SLW soared, and the POS soured. We'll get at least one post today who'll ask, without reading any other post, why is SLW down when POS is up.
It's easier to forecast that dummy statement, then how and when the dollar, worth a 1971 dime, gets to a 2022 penny.
And I have been saying that for years.
The Empire Manufacturing data didn't strike back, it plumb struck out, with instead of breaking to 0 from minus 5 it went to -10. Good thing we don't manufacture anything much, but this morning the state of billionaires in China was reported, and they dropped by THIRTY PERCENT over the previous year.
As they used to spoof about women targeted cigerrettes, you've come the long way baby? No, you've come the wrong way baby.
SLW bucks the odds of silver mining plays up a bit, for reasons I can't find explicable, since silver is backpeddling, but, a bank to the miners is a bank, and lately banks whatever the flavor count "more" than the real economy, so I guess maybe for the first time in eons, can I posture "we're different?
I hope we get two solid days of MEH market selloff, so the analysts can call it "healthy" and "forming" a base. Actually that's like mistaking heavy clouds beneath you at 36.000 feet over the Bermuda Triangle as some kind of solid "floor", but as we say in NY, there's a reason there are so many gentiles in the world--somebody has to pay retail, meaning, somebody has to buy all this drivel about "floors" etc.
GLTA. Keep powder dry, get nervous sell some out of the money calls due winter, and use the proceeds to bottom pick. Pushing 40 is a long way from $3 four years ago, and the prospect of you picking your bottom here now is rather nauseating picture, nes pas?
Got the two days of MEH, futures are up, silver is down, but like last night Monday night, that's the way we started then, modest silver sell off and market mini pop, and today just the opposite by the close. Housing index was up, I'd call that bearish considering the glut of older homes, and I guess the market followed suit. Tomorrow the 19th, all those housing starts and construction need to show a downtrend, the economy cannot recover on the backs of more supply in the glut of foreclosed homes still awaiting market. My favorite ignored mantra, but somebody might listen.
I have been in and out of SLW for two years and it seems that eventually SLW catches up/down to the actual price of silver...but I would like it to strengthen up and consolidate here at this level, then go higher straight up, means straight down, another point is that with higher silver prices, SLW will report better earnings, SLW is solid....I know what you are talking about when it soars, it will to $47-48 soon....Im a believer...and hopefully before the election, but nothing will change...all nations are broke and hate each other...people are starving....except in USAwhere we give everyone everything for nothing.
Sentiment: Strong Buy