Monday I look for housing prices stable to uppish, Tuesday slight new home plus, crude down Wed initial claims MEH, orders slightly down with most of the down in transportation, GDP flat, with housing sales pending up slightly for Aug and income Thursday up a hair.
Not exactly a 2% up week market wide IMHO, and for gold and silver, MEH headquarters.
With QE3 the big gun in a room for two stale weeks, we are stuck with just as stale world wide figures an anchor around the market's neck.
Well at least we have the election to look forward to.
Hmmm. NOW I'm really depressed.
Sep 25 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jul - NA NA 0.5% -
Sep 25 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Sep - NA NA 60.6 -
Sep 25 10:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Jul - NA NA 0.7% -
Sep 26 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 09/22 - NA NA -0.2% -
Sep 26 10:00 AM New Home Sales Aug - NA NA 372K -
Sep 26 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 09/22 - NA NA 8.534M -
Sep 27 8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/22 - NA NA NA -
Sep 27 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 09/15 - NA NA NA -
Sep 27 8:30 AM Durable Orders Aug - NA NA 4.1% 4.2%
Sep 27 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Aug - NA NA -0.6% -0.4%
Sep 27 8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate Q2 - NA NA 1.7% -
Sep 27 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q2 - NA NA 1.6% -
Sep 27 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Aug - NA NA 2.4% -
Sep 28 8:30 AM Personal Income Aug - NA NA 0.3% -
Sep 28 8:30 AM Personal Spending Aug - NA NA 0.4% -
Sep 28 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Aug - NA NA 0.0% -
Sep 28 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Sep - NA NA 53.0 -
Sep 28 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Sep - NA NA 79.2 -
Another general market pullback and sad no follow thru yet, Plosser should drop dead. Romnuts lagging tonight the debate has Obummer winning by a landslide, the Mittigating factor his kick in the teeth being his 47% comment on the votes of loser welfare freaks like his Dad.
We needed two good not MEH days in a row to establish countertrend and silver is up a smidge while SLW down is not encouraging.
Keep the faith, thats all that is left.
What looked like a good day turned into an ugly rout when Faux News Network entertain non voting Fed Chairman Plosser's off the wall remarks on how ineffective the bond buying program is, about how irates are going to have to be raised before Bernanke's mid 2015 pronouncement--all blathered about 1230 EST, then sticks the needles in further by stating "nothing will work" and comments pointing to Fed impotence, around 230 PM EST capping a day of sharp sticks in the eyes of all investors. It's no secret that the forum and the speaker aren't friends of the administration, so every investor in America took a drubbing for even thinking about Bernookie and Obummer.
Do I think this was a calculated ploy? No but I think it was a perfect storm of small minds thinking together, and a willingness to do anything, on the part of Faux News Network, to arm wrestle votes for the other side by whizzing off any investor who has the temerity to understand the S and P has come 16% up these past few months.
Do I think Plosser is right? Probably, but the confidence level of investors is as real as the P and L statement-he shouldn't be the one speaking out of school-why we didn't hear Cramer go off on a rant similar to the one he offered against banks making similar gloom and doom statements leaves me awestruck.
And about $20K lighter. Housing actually has been improving nominally across America--we're now up to 2004 prices!!! That means, using the fallacious CPI, the "right" nominal value they're shooting for is about 22% higher just to break even with history. About that time, everyone at 110% LTV today should be able to refi under the 80/20 auspice, leaving about 8% of the rest of homeowning America under water. That includes some payment of principal over the next five year period--that's why low irates are required till 2018.
In the meantime, the markets are sneaking forward as they did yesterday, until the wicked witch of the Fed, Plosser decided to get you and your little dog too. Not a fun day, and for no good reason.
So I guess numbers and reality are replaced by negative bullchit. Who'da thunk?
The positives however are there--however manufactured--Plosser's gloom and doom pronouncement proves a couple things--the markets are skittish and the herd can be stampeded by pundits--and the mob believes, however badly, in the Fed being able to do something and confidence, a real force, is still meaningful.
We needed to hold onto that rally in the face of Greek grok this Friday, as they are within a smidge of qualifying for bailout money. Jezzus, that outburst by Plosser was irresponsible.
"Keaton used to say, I don't believe in God, but I'm afraid of Him. Well, Detective, I do believe in God, but the only thing I'm afraid of, is Kaiser Sose."
"I can't feel my legs."
Case Shiller got scooped three minutes early at 9:57--somebody must be worried as the housing prices reported to in July were higher--based on my view the housing prices will snug up again in August--but you'll have to wait for that one.
With China word this morning about "stimulus", and Merkal's statement about go slow with the "unionization" of financial oversight of Europe, hinted as an unintended consequence is there will be some kind of union, under the flush of this admittedly MEH news, this morning we get a litmus test on the health of housing. I don't know why we look to new housing with the glut of already owned new homes awaiting the market, but we may show an uptick in prices, or that prices have not gone down--we are at the end of the traditional buying season. That would provide a gentle swell under the market. The way that works is somebody yells "swell" on the exchange and off we go for a mildly up day. As in "isn't that swell?" See how that works?
Interrzo says throw away the canned corn, a Europe based study has shown it grows rather lethal and disgusting tumors in rats when farmers use Round-Up--a rather interesting ingredient that is spread from treated crop to untreated crop so profound the Supreme Court has said all farmers owe royalties to Monsanto, whether they use the product or not. Skip the "organic aisle" there's no place to hide now. (Stick to peas I guess.)
Now that might solve both our Social Security problem over the next 20 years, and makes universal health care in the wake of all genetically altered food products positively financial genius since we'll all be growing cancerous tumors in leaps and bounds. If we could come up with the $20 Trillion for the Healthcare "program". What's that you say? I can't hear you above the sound of Ben's printing presses at full throttle.
Today we see if your house will double from $400K to $800K allowing you the 80/20 loan to value you need to refi at these low rates in five short years. Don't forget to take out plenty of equity, you know how badly the economy needs you to buy useless chit! And frankly, when your salary buys 50% less, you'll really be grateful.
See you at opening bell.
The game is understate and over-perform, but with the home builders on a tear, run up too soon too fast, even if we get good numbers in the first housing numbers we'll see this week at 10AM tomorrow, the big homebuilders are poised for a small sell off. Bigger disappointment's, fudheddaboudit.
In the meantime, the clock is bearing heavily down upon the smiley faces out there, and folks are rushing to get off the table in anticipation of their self fulfilling anticipation.
I think I will buy more Russell 2000 at the close and average down. Since silver is about two thirds my portfolio in some guise, I will dabble elsewhere.
Looks like the close up I was ready for has been usurped by bickering at the Merkel/France level about who does what when, which turns the markets once again into sushi. Of course the proper thing to do when country leaders squabble about bullchit is to sell all your silver and gold for more worthless paper currency.
I think this makes the fourth week where lead financial analyst stories were talking about weakness and taking some off the table on the way to a pullback. We have the financialistas in the media business making a guess down in the past four weeks, and if they keep it up, the slightest disturbance in the force has even the pros left trading heading for the exits in self fulfilling mode.
End of week, the Greeks come up with the remainder 2.5B in cuts, to qualify for a handout (never mind fix anything, just qualify to get inflation spiking currency degrading bailout money) and when that can gets kicked down the road, watch what happens.
If they're headlines attracting at investors that look to stories like contestants in some global whackamole contest--pop city. If off the table because of whatever hits the fan, they'll hardly be mentioned.
You're supposed to invest accordingly. The first preparedness I would recommend is drinking huge quantities of caffeine laced with five hour energy splashes inbetween.
Then you can jump around all over the place.