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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Sep 26, 2012 9:59 AM Flag

    Ag going to 33.19 i think

    that's 1.1% down, but if the dollar closes above 80.00 at 10:00am that will likely trigger a greater fall. still holding my short and will take some profits down at the price mentioned.

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    • Chemaes, do you think it is wise to rely on tech analysis in this economic climate. We're back to the usual formula where the U.S. dollar rises when the Euro heads for the cellar....again. Just check today's headlines that certainly don't bode well for Europe's bailout plans.

      "Spanish Bonds Slide on Call for Bank Bailout Limits; Bunds Gain" -- Bloomberg
      "Exclusive - IMF, EU clash over Greece's bailout prospects" -- Rueters
      "Euro Zone Deal Over Bank Bailout in Doubt" -- Financial Times
      "Greek protest turns violent during general strike" -- AP
      "Why Europe is looking like a mess (again)" -- Washington Post

      And, of course, this list goes on and on. Everybody in the PM arena realize there is a race to the currency bottom and the U.S. faces it's own "fiscal cliff" very very soon. So a flight to the perceived safety of the U.S. dollar makes absolutely no sense.

      So the decline in PM prices at today's outset of trading simply reflect that old mindset that gold and silver should head lower as the U.S. dollar strengthens on world currency market. Precious metal investors don't agree with this old mantra and I suspect we will soon be seeing silver and gold rising significantly regardless of any rise in the dollar. Perhaps we are seeing this occur today.

      Regards

      • 1 Reply to quailrunrd
      • Hey quailrunrd, interesting question.

        I'll see if i can explain. Have you ever noticed that a majority of time when news is released it seems to have the opposite affect you thought it would? Do you believe that insiders act on information before the general public get's a hold of it? Have you heard of the saying buy on the rumor, sell on the news? if you answered yes to these three, you and i are not far off.

        I believe that any news released today was already acted upon in the past by the insiders who heard of it in the first millisecond. Once they acted on it, the brokers who managed their accounts acted too and they're buddy, and so on. Days or weeks later when the news is actually released to the general public, those insiders "sell on the news" to well intentioned people like yourself, since they "bought on the rumor" a while ago.

        If i follow the charts and the models I build, I am always acting with the money, instead of chasing the money.The news becomes unimportant when i trade except when you need to know there is really big news pending, that will whipsaw the market, like Fed minutes, so you step away from the oncoming train.

        Money managers on CNBC, News headlines, Gold analysts etc. etc. are all full of it. They get paid to print, just to write anything and everything. Yesterday the FED official got blamed for the sell-off. I think I could show you a chart of the dollar index, oil, copper and the USD/EUR that would prove that yesterdays move started two weeks ago and the FED guy was the scapegoat of the day because he spoke. If Romney farted on air yesterday, and the FED guy didn't speak, Romney would have been blamed.

        today, the models and prices I ran said in the morning 33.19 was the target unless it rose back above 33.86. It went as low as 33.36 and you've been around long enough to know that for me, that 17 cents difference was a miss. I would normally go long when I covered but because a lot of things were moving weirdly I decided to sit out. Normally a miss like that would scream bullish but again, there was no volume, so I'm skeptical.

        long winded but, explains my thoughts.
        good trading to you
        chem

    • Hi Chemaes. Did you get out of your short position? I bought some SLV calls, so I'm hoping you're not still expecting $33.19.

      • 1 Reply to lancekoliver
      • To be honest, no I haven't.

        33.86 is the line in the sand, if it goes above that for 15 mins, I close the short with a smaller profit than I thought.

        I'm pretty surprised it's risen this high. this jewish holiday thing must be a factor.

        Either I'm very wrong on 33.19 or there are some really crazy silver speculators out there who pay no heed to anything rational. Gold is as 1750, after falling through to 1740. 1750 stopped a lot of longs out, and the turn back up should have resulted in shorts lining up at 1750 and left over stops trying to sell at the 1750.

        The dollar shouldn't have gone higher than 79.94 but it did to 80.07. That means it's still bullish with a downside to 79.88. If it falls through that 79.88, I would close my short.

        Oil looks set to go from current 89.44 to 88.29.

        All these things are being ignored by silver specs and the move up in price for silver has been on unbelievable weak volume. regardless, if silver punches up through 33.86 I have to close it down. I won't go long though because the setup doesn't inspire confidence, at least to me.

        This is actually a perfect place to short, because if silver moves 6 cents upward you stop out for nearly no loss, but the potential down move could generate huge profits

 
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