Excellent post. And I (not that it matters) agree with most of it.
The "PPT" whomever they are at JPM, GS, SAN, ML do what they are instructed to do. They are NOT asmost think, restricted to any one instrument.
With that in mind, your argument about the dollar falling may be just the opposite.
They CAN manipulate the price of oil lower while allowing the dollar to weaken and thus allow other commodities and equities increase in value. In fact, it's easier for them to do that.
The one thing they fear is oil over $100. Even $95 gets dicybut that's where they step in.
Another problem is the Fed's proxiy traders at the aforementioned houses get something in return. Most of it is in the .25% differential in I rates for them. But the other is how they play the commodity and equity games.They are above the law,and we don't always know which side of the trade they are on.....well,most don't. Some do.
But yourpost was just about spot on, with a few tweaks needed, arguablyinconsequential to the overall flavor of the post.