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  • ilap2004 ilap2004 Oct 10, 2012 10:45 AM Flag

    How Stupid Do They Think We Are?

     

    From American Spectator:

    The BLS reported last Friday that the economy in September created all of 114,000 net new jobs, just 104,000 in the private sector. To give you some context for how great that is, the working age population increased by 206,000 in September. With a labor force participation rate normal for the fourth year of a recovery (where we are right now), just keeping pace with that population growth would require 138,000 new jobs, before we can even start to reduce the unemployment rate.

    Indeed, since Obama became President, the working age population has increased by 8.4 million. At the same labor force participation rate as when Obama entered office, that would require 5.52 million new jobs just to keep pace with that population growth. The total number of net new jobs created since Obama became President according to the BLS: 787,000.

    But not to worry. The BLS also reported on Friday that the number of full time jobs actually DECLINED last month by 216,000. Thank you, President Obama. You are doing a great job. Socialism is finally working. Forward. Why would we ever consider turning back now?

    So how did the reported unemployment rate fall to 7.8%, down from 8.1% in August, and 8.3% in July? That is because the BLS (might consider dropping the L) also reported that the separate Household Survey, on which the unemployment rate is based, found a giant 873,000 jump in jobs last month, the biggest one month increase in nearly 30 years! That makes sense because the same survey found a decline in jobs of 119,000 in August and 195,000 in July.

    Of course, 582,000 of those supposed jobs were part time "for economic reasons." The BLS defines that as "individuals [who] were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job." That is not all good either. But a part-time job is better than no job at all.

    The supposed sudden surprise spurt in September jobs in the Household Survey provided another gift to Obama. By August, for Obama's entire term in office the economy had created less than zero jobs. In the more than three and a half years from Obama's inauguration until then, the economy in total had lost 86,000 jobs. But the September surprise spurt of 873,000 jobs put Obama in the plus territory for his entire term with a grand total of 787,000 jobs created. Creating 787,000 jobs would be one ordinary month in the Reagan recovery, where the largest gain in one month was 1.1 million jobs in September, 1983. That was not an anomaly then, when the economy was on the way to creating 20 million new jobs in 7 years.

    The supposed sudden explosion of Household Survey jobs is inconsistent not only with the 114,000 jobs found in the Establishment Survey of employers. It is also inconsistent with the reported GDP growth of 1.3% in the second quarter, which has been declining for over two years. Monthly job creation of 873,000 would require economic growth 3 to 4 times that large, at least.

    It is inconsistent as well with the decline of 216,000 full time jobs found for September. It is inconsistent with the decline of 16,000 manufacturing jobs that the BLS also reported for September, totaling a decline in manufacturing jobs of 38,000 in the last two months. Indeed, the Household Survey September burst of jobs is inconsistent with the prior months of declining jobs in the Household Survey itself. All the rest of this and other economic data is consistent with the reality that we are heading back into recession. Except for the September Household Survey, which is the basis for calculating the unemployment rate 4 weeks before the election.

    This topic is deleted.
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    • How stupid do you think WE are? We are NOT in the fourth year of a recovery, we are in the second year at best. The first two years we dug ourselves out of a CATASTROPHE, the remarks at the time, were, to the effect forget about a V shaped recovery. Think a bullet to the head, but the next few milliseconds aren't getting "well", the bullet fragments are still rattling around inside the skull doing plenty of damage.

      About the closest you can peg the "recovery" is to the real estate improvements in pricing, using inflated paper dollars--one year old. The market has been anticipating that effort for three years, and Mom and Pop are still off the stock market playing field, maybe never to return

    • If you want to find a country where "political leaders" make a difference to business try Red China, or if your wayback machine works. Germany in the late twenties.

      The economy is a job for business, and they've no incentive to hire, with the lowest tax rates in the world and ways to finagle it down to zero, why risk hiring?

    • If you want to find a country where "political leaders" make a difference to business try Red China, or if your wayback machine works. Germany in the late twenties.

      The economy is a job for business, and they've no incentive to hire, with the lowest tax rates in the world and ways to finagle it down to zero, why risk hiring?

    • If you want to find a country where "political leaders" make a difference to business try Red China, or if your wayback machine works. Germany in the late twenties.

      The economy is a job for business, and they've no incentive to hire, with the lowest tax rates in the world and ways to finagle it down to zero, why risk hiring?

    • If you want to find a country where "political leaders" make a difference to business try Red China, or if your wayback machine works. Germany in the late twenties.

      The economy is a job for business, and they've no incentive to hire, with the lowest tax rates in the world and ways to finagle it down to zero, why risk hiring?

    • If you want to find a country where "political leaders" make a difference to business try Red China, or if your wayback machine works. Germany in the late twenties.

      The economy is a job for business, and they've no incentive to hire, with the lowest tax rates in the world and ways to finagle it down to zero, why risk hiring?

    • If you want to find a country where "political leaders" make a difference to business try Red China, or if your wayback machine works. Germany in the late twenties.

      The economy is a job for business, and they've no incentive to hire, with the lowest tax rates in the world and ways to finagle it down to zero, why risk hiring?

    • If you want to find a country where "political leaders" make a difference to business try Red China, or if your wayback machine works. Germany in the late twenties.

      The economy is a job for business, and they've no incentive to hire, with the lowest tax rates in the world and ways to finagle it down to zero, why risk hiring?

    • If you want to find a country where "political leaders" make a difference to business try Red China, or if your wayback machine works. Germany in the late twenties.

      The economy is a job for business, and they've no incentive to hire, with the lowest tax rates in the world and ways to finagle it down to zero, why risk hiring?

    • If you want to find a country where "political leaders" make a difference to business try Red China, or if your wayback machine works. Germany in the late twenties.

      The economy is a job for business, and they've no incentive to hire, with the lowest tax rates in the world and ways to finagle it down to zero, why risk hiring?

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