Mortgage holders with paper based on LIBOR rates are suing for the difference and damages, some lost their homes because irates were set too high.
Chances of joehomeowner getting paid are a million to one. Chances of this dragging on for ten years is more likely.
Value those too big to fail will be sweating a long long time?
That ray of sunshine and a slew of earnings reports, all scheduled to show slowdown from the previous two quarters leaves me with another MEH selloff assessment. Retail sales with autos should show a pop, without, MEH or a drop--back to school had folks in thriftshops country wide.CPI will reflect food and fuel pop, without core will remain as placid as the indicator is unloaded of anything meaningful to those who have food clothing shelter and food on their plates. Industrial production will expand as it is the season to be manufacturing, but hopefully, housing starts will be tame so as to give existing homes continued breathing room. Continuing claims will show an adjustment upward for last week to coincide with the discovery that folks were left off the unemployment stats--California suspect--while existing home sales should show a seasonal decline--folks are buying, but, not yet, not yet, Russel, as they aren't something to Crowe about.
Plus a slew of earnings reports ought to keep joeinvestor overwhelmed however drowned in information information.
"Stay thirsty, my friend."
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Oct 15 8:30 AM Retail Sales Sep - 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% -
Oct 15 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Sep - 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% -
Oct 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Oct - -2.0 -2.8 -10.4 -
Oct 15 10:00 AM Business Inventories Aug - 0.5% 0.5% 0.8% -
Oct 16 8:30 AM CPI Sep - 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% -
Oct 16 8:30 AM Core CPI Sep - 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% -
Oct 16 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Aug - NA NA $67.0B -
Oct 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Sep - 0.0% 0.2% -1.2% -
Oct 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Sep - 78.2% 78.3% 78.2% -
Oct 16 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Oct - 42 42 40 -
Oct 17 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 10/13 - NA NA -1.2% -
Oct 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Sep - 765K 768K 750K -
Oct 17 8:30 AM Building Permits Sep - 815K 815K 803K -
Oct 17 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 10/13 - NA NA 1.672M -
Oct 18 8:30 AM Initial Claims 10/13 - 370K 360K 339K -
Oct 18 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/6 - 3275K 3275K 3273K -
Oct 18 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Oct - 0.0 -0.1 -1.9 -
Oct 18 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Sep - 0.1% 0.2% -0.1% -
Oct 19 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Sep - 4.90M 4.70M 4.82M
Good retail news and a blithering blathering Fed cacaphony on inflation--yes, no maybe, sent the PM's into the toilet on the view, that Bernanke is not to be believed, the PPI CPI will shoot up, with all this stimulatum excretatum, and the Fded will pull the plug on low irates in shorter order than Bernanke predicted.
Sorry, until all homes are financed, and that includes HARP II which gives some relief for underwater homeowners--we are out of the running, in my estimation, until at least 2018.
Today a debate weary America turns the clock back once again to 1946 in their vain attempt to look to new housing as some sign of an expanding economy, while foreclosed homes, in decline, still wait fallow in the wings of banks accounts in the "not counted" column.
HARP II with 413 days to run allows homeowners under water to get refi'd at new rates, and HARP III is coming mid year to extend even further the ability for people no matter what the loan to value of the house is, to get better loans.
The problem is not the program, the problem is getting banks to play--the reality is you'd better be closer to 90-100% loan to value, you'd better steel yourself for a "no sale" and the credit relaxation rules are not being abided to. If you're looking at 3.5% for regular 80/20 folks, best look about 3/4 points higher--if you're stuck in any loan above 5% you might make out, if you're currently in an adjustable rate mortgage you'd probably make out UNLESS you're enjoying 3% rates now. The bottom line is, the program helps some, but not nearly the number required, and certainly means that monetization, meaning the depreciation of the dollar compared to any "thing" "must" continue.
And HARP still fails to include folding in second loans or HELOCs--don't expect relief there.
So stay tuned as America stays breathlessly addicted to the fiction that housing always goes "up"--when in actuality it's your currency going down.
That's how we got to having $100K salary replace $10K a year--it's because the 1971 Corolla at $1875 is now $18750, the $40K house now $400K, 39.9cents per gallon gas now $4, and the $4.35 silver ounce, now at bargain prices anything less than $43.00.
15% RISE in new housing, and low and behold, everybody forgets that the glut of housing is still out there. HARP I and II are making a difference in getting foreclosures under wraps, but folks are still out of work and neither candidate has come up with credible fix its.
Obama is the last to mention it, but the rate of Fed employees getting out and jobs being abolished is a knee in the rehiring posture--we may not like the value detracted from such jobs, but a salaried employee is a salary that can buy something, a far better boost to the people end of the economy, job for job, than making widgets.
But the country is as mired in new housing being a picture of "health" as it was saying housing "always" goes up. I don't know how that game of musical chairs ends or when, but take it while you got it.