Quarterly reviews continue and are now expected to be shaky if Google last week was an example. The FOMC is aleady baked in, and claims is the next place to say whoops on older reporting and disapointments in the new. Mitt Robme and Oblamer get to cure insomnia Monday night.
I got a feeling it is going to be very hard to be long.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Oct 24 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 10/20 - NA NA -4.2% -
Oct 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales Sep - 385K 385K 373K -
Oct 24 10:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Aug - NA NA 0.2% -
Oct 24 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 10/20 - NA NA 2.860M -
Oct 24 12:30 PM FOMC Rate Decision Oct - NA NA 0.25% -
Oct 24 2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision Oct - 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% -
Oct 25 8:30 AM Initial Claims 10/20 - 375K 375K 388K -
Oct 25 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/13 - 3275K 3237K 3252K -
Oct 25 8:30 AM Durable Orders Sep - 12.0% 7.4% -13.2% -
Oct 25 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Sep - 0.2% 1.0% -1.6% -
Oct 25 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Sep - 1.0% 2.4% -2.6% -
Oct 26 8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q3 - 0.9% 1.9% 1.3% -
Oct 26 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q3 - 2.6% 2.0% 1.6% -
Oct 26 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Oct - 82.5 83.1 83.1
2% GDP is what everyone decided to look at this morning, not figuring in Fed govt expenditures, usually a pop since their fiscal year 2013 starts in October--and sure enough pop it did.
It took the edge off triple digit losses all night long, as long as you don't look too close--retail is up including new car sales, but that is also due to pushing the XMAS season to the left a month or so.
Our big bugaboo this next week isn't the market it's the weather, as we scare ourselves silly with talk of Frankenstorm hitting the east coast starting 28 October and ruining Halloween for almost the entire week.
I expect the challenge of the weather to make opportunity for the President to look Presidential. I expect Romney to say there isn't any storm, then there is one, then he would have taken decisive action earlier, doing exactly what the President is going to do about it.
If anything, Romney should do well considering he blows whichever way suits him depending on--well--the weather.
That's for certain.
Shhhhhhhhhh! The market is opening.
Last minute bargain hunting saved the general market, but silver stayed lofty all day 25 October. Not so in the wee hours 26 Oct coming, for some reason we're yanged down from yesterday's ying. I like to think sell the winners to offset the losers.
As to the general market it could be AAPL's showing was off analyst's mark, if not by much, or that AMZN continues to try for more and more market share at the expense of the bottom line. Just a few days ago I was reading the problem was too much profit and not enough market share--so pick your rationale, it's like two fleas arguing over who owns the dog.
Nevertheless, the market is anticipating a triple digit loss today 26 Oct, and silver and gold are following the herd lower.
Six hours the market opens, and it may be a whole other ball game. But I doubt it.
Saved by a 2% GDP which was above consensus, and some drivel about America opening their wallets again. By the end of the day, you got a market willing to give itself the benefit of the doubt, which was far better than what transpired in the wee hours. At that time we were headed for another triple digit down day.
I raised a lot of cash today to be opportunistic on the long side next week, I never can get short positions right.
I still think the market as a whole looks toppy. And about as reliable as the polls are for this election coming in about two weeks.
The FOMC said absolutely nothing new, but vowed to keep the pedal to the metal long after recovery again--the reason, the cringe after the binge can't take us back to where we once belonged with respect to home valuation, we have to be past that sufficiently to withstand the first quarter point of pop in overnight rates--the market will discount the next four percent in a heartbeat, and the 25% retreat of the market will need to be counterbalanced by a 50% pop from current levels.
Current levels are measured by home nominal valuations--which right now are June 2004 levels. So, where do we need to be?
If your house was worth $400K in 2004, that's where it sits now--and the real price should be 27% more--or $510K. So your house needs to be about $655K before the pop in overnight rates needs to take place--because almost within a year, you can expect that house to drop to about $510K--and that will be just in time for all the boomers in homes to have dropped dead, bringing on the next recession. See how that works? No? Do the math. Take your time. I assure you nobody else has done the math.
Try to remember, Bernookie will be gone about Jan 2014--his successor has to agree with this tactic, and that is up for grabs. It depends on who is President, and who he appoints as Bernookie's successor.
In the meantime, the ADHD market will focus on employment this morning. I don't expect to see any changes of value--the market is plussing up overnight, until they hear the news and a few co's report their version of bad news.
Silver is soaring.
Until 0830 EST. Then we get to see what holds and what folds.
hi, i think slw revisits36 , if one must have a silver position , pslv is a safer bet right now, premuim at a low...
Did you catch the flash crash in REITS a few days ago...?. I got in ARR five minutes off the bottom ..those could have been the lows.
Well we have the requisite number of idiot folks adding to the spam problem by answering it, and driving those messages to the top of the heap, I don't know why the market backed off in wake of the FOMC announcement in a couple hours--what are they going to say that we don't already know?
Housing is on an uptick, which is improvement? Got it. $40B in purchases of MBS every month to keep interest rates low because folks won't or can't refi, even under HARP II, especially if banks don't want to play? Got it. What POSSIBLE other drivel can they portend?
The wind blew and the chit flew. Tomorrow I'd be more worried about unemployment than the Fed.
I'm Fed up with them.
Home sales were up, new home sales were up, prices up YoY (veh), prices are back to June 2004. That means they are 27-35% BEHIND dollar degradation levels year 2013. Notice I didn't say inflation.
Inflation happens when an asset appreciates. Houses didn't appreciate unless you find oil or gold buried beneath them. Housing appears to nominally go "up" in price because the currency houses are defined in is designed to be depreciated or degraded, so as to minimize our borrow and spend lifestyles. Govt borrows a dollar, and that dollar becomes 22 cents in 30 years. If you're paying irates of 2% a year, at best you get your money returned to you--about $1.10 for the privilege. This is such a common thought process nobody has figured out it's mathematical nonsense. And punishes both savers and 75% of all investors, unless you're very aggressive in the marketplace, and make about 12% a year, you can't get 6% ahead in buying power. I just read a Money magazine article which purports to say the same thing, only enjoins you to make 12% a year as if this were a given.
The market is up mildly on the housing news, the FOMC statement that we are going too slow and unemployment is too high, releasable about 1315 Central Standard time, 1415 Eastern Standard time. Immediate of concern, is soft landing news from China, and crude declining in the wake of warmer weather and colder economic activity. Cheaper oil usually means joemiddleclass has some extra spending cash and a good thing, but with eyes on the world economy using oil utilization as bellweather, the opposite --lower oil prices--has a perverse dampening effect.
We are so addicted to everything going "up" that any weakness any sector is looked askance. The only way everything goes up, is to degrade the currency and make it seem so.
See how that works? No? Me either.
Till we return to a market of stocks, instead of a stock market, I remain yourdeadmeat69 times over.
Well I thought the Russian threat dissolved circa 1986 but what do I know? Probably a little more than any of the Presidential candidates and much more than the Presidential contender.
On that note I'll tell you what, the futures market for silver and the US just took a huge midnight dump is what, if the business class was waiting for Oblamer and Robme to resolve itself in favor of the business class. It didn't happen. And Robme had one too many Palin moments.
Both jerks are borrow and spenders, just one is for social agendas nobody elected him to provide, and the other is pumping a couple trillion into a Pentagon budget my buddies at DoD just went through the wringer to wrestle out of the budget-- and it seems for one candidate, for weapons to fight enemies dead and buried. Not much of a sop there to anyone who is looking forward to getting out of the this fiscal quagmire, self imposed, self wrought, and causing 22.4% of America to be on the dole or pumping gas or flipping burgers. Not a light at the end of that tunnel, not even an oncoming train.
There's no economic news today, and we'll need another clawback based on reports like Yahoo's, which showed a pleasing--for the moment--uptick.
AAPL saved the day yesterday with an anticipatory pop for Friday's report coming--can you say the chances for disappointment loom boys and goys?
I'm getting really nervous kids. Yahoooooooooooooooo....woooooooooooooo.
Triple digit declines, and no help in sight if earnings rule the roost. We're going to get "the foreseeable future" drivel out of the FOMC, but unless AAPL beats Friday, the market is going to do its own five percent correction this week.
It sucks to be right.
The last debate occurs tonight 22 October, two borrow and spenders no waiting, one for the military that didn't ask for the extra two trillion offered, the other for healthcare nobody elected him to bankrupt us for. Great choices!
US economic news, you won't hear anything about Europe as the attention span of the world has reached a new Ritalin inspired low. As cream of the crap US economy emerges as the best place to sell needless worthless crap, the futures are up, if silver isn't all over the place.
Positive spot silver is a one percent turnaround from earlier Sunday night. The US market opens in six hours.
Do you know where your money is?
Don't forget that BINLADEN said he would cause USA to spend themselves broke.Know your history. You don't send your military to wipe out cockroaches,witnessw Vietnam...history repeats.
Harry Truman said 'he who does not know his history is doomed to relive it'.