SANDY's bill is TBD, but I bet 1/4 Trillion changes hands from Uncle down to insurance co's. Wed you'll see initial claims pop due to the storm, and singular events that cause statistical anomaly generally, back in the day, like the fifties or sixties, would cause a bobble. These days we all "know" it's SANDY related, so how much is out of the market as a result, or out of the market in the wake of no discussion about fiscal cliff till the following week, begs the question. Housing starts have surprised me, although homes seem to be recovering, why anyone would or can build in this glut continues to amaze me. I can see the rebuild post SANDY as worthwhile, and home builders are soaring for a long time betting on a future I just don't see until all the older inventory shows real gains. Israel gets to shake its considerable fist at Hamas and initial claims should pop based on jobs disappearing in the aftermath of SANDY.
Fiscal cliff discussions per my reading don't surface till the week after Thanksgiving. That's when the real wrangling begins and if the Republicans don't want to be accused of financial terrorism, they need to show some desire to compromise. You always get cooperation first meeting--that's what the pundits state, but this isn't the first meeting. The TEA party Republicans dug in their feet before, will enough go along for the good of the country without an idiotic cliffhanger environment again, beats the crap out of me. In order to do that the honorable minority has to be honorable, and even Bobby Jindahl has claimed the Republicans are toast if they don't talk to 100% instead of the 53% Romney talked to.
The gouging of the NE in re gas prices is beginning to dissolve. Where regular was $4.29 it is now $3.78. In DC it's $3.43 and descending.
If the week is short, and Thanksgiving a respite, Friday trading should be completely nuts. Why? It's Black Friday, the retail picture of folks in the NE racing to go shopping after mucking out their homes has me wondering how. To me this is a known anchor around retail's neck, but that Friday is also option expiration Friday for November and a half day of trading. It's usually light in volume and heavy on volatility. And there are bargains out there. For those who don't normally go to the cutrate houses like TJMAX, every store is going to look like TJMAX.
For those who jumped on junk, hat's off to you. Some of those players cost less than an option on SLW--ARR comes to mind--and that particular MREIT descended to $5.70, popped to $6.75, which is still $1.25 from its high this year. At $6.75 it is yielding 16%--I see another fifty cents to a dollar, still under the high of the year before it gets pricey.
Hey every little bit counts.
Nov 19 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Oct - NA NA 4.75 -
Nov 19 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Nov - NA NA 41 -
Nov 20 8:30 AM Housing Starts Oct - NA NA 872K -
Nov 20 8:30 AM Building Permits Oct - NA NA 894K -
Nov 21 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/17 - NA NA 12.6% -
Nov 21 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/17 - NA NA 439K -
Nov 21 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/10 - NA NA 3334K -
Nov 21 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Nov - NA NA 84.9 -
Nov 21 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Oct - NA NA 0.6% -
Nov 21 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/17 - NA NA 1.089M
Yesterday Thanksgiving, nobody remembered the 49th Anniversary of the slaying of JFK. Nobody except some local papers concerning the prep for next year's gala events. And propitiously it is the week before Thanksgiving and Black Friday 2013, so no conflicts there, at least as far as calendars are concerned.
The market closes is a short while, silver has popped on the eve of option expiration, the market is nuts, but in slow motion. RGR a gun manufacturer has declared a special one time $4.50 cent dividend, the stock has soared five bux since then, and will probably go another five bucks considering its factories are running flat out, they've created four more mini factories that won't be running with full efficacy until end of 2013, and they have three shifts 24/7/365. It is the closest thing to a perfect home run I have ever seen--especially since it is $5 below its all pre divvy high. Sound familiar?
Why silver has popped functionally in the short shrift remains a mystery today, so I don't hold with this particular day being long term trendy. I suspect retracement, but for those in the mood to sell, what the hell, I think you can buy back a buck or two cheaper. For long term players, go back to sleep off the giblets. I shall use the time propitiously cleaning up post SANDY.
So much mold, so little time.
I, too, thought about JFK. His assassination, like 911, is one of those events that you easily recall where you were and what you were doing when the news was made known to you. For me, that meant 6th grade math class where the teacher broke down and cried in great sobs adding to the number of memory hooks. It's a mental image I can still draw to mind.
But only those of us with a great deal more "experience" were apt to recall that day in Dallas when the gangbanksters killed the man that threatened their deal.
From the large gains in the PMs today it would seem that the PM manipulators are out of town and sleeping off their hangovers.
Previous attempts to post this as a topic were censored (deleted).
Both housing numbers were way up over prognosticators assessments yesterday, and no news on the fiscal cliff, the Congress' poison pill, self created and self administered, led everyone to believe, however inexplicably, that solution was just around the corner. Tensions mount needlessly, since the "crisis", $600,000,000,000 deep, the current price of a footlong at Subway based on dollar values, trickles in one day at a time starting Jan 1st when the Bush tax cuts, which don't matter much to corporations which don't pay anything anyway, are supposed to kick in. Everyone's forgotten that when the Congress puts structure together like the Fed to do its responsibility of valuing money, or never declaring war, just funding it, it surely wouldn't quibble over something as insignificant as expost facto lawmaking, namely, waiting till December 31 2013 to write tax law affecting the PREVIOUS year.
This morning we follow up on the housing debacle that expects new homes to be started with gusto. What homebuilder thinks he can start new homes with the overhang of foreclosed properties beats the crap out of me, but homebuilders are soaring, so #$%$. The futures have backed off a little market wide, but the POS is up a hair at the wee hours of Tuesday the 20th of November.
Closed yesterday on my home near Minneapolis and hear that there is actually a listing shortage in the area there. See the usual foreclosed homes listings with few houses compared to the recent past. Back to SLW Seems to me if anyone knows the ins ad outs of silver and future pricing of same it would be the guys at SLW. I have confidense in what they are doing in regards to holding their silver vrs. selling it. Id be confident if they sold enough for expenses and held the rest. Guess thats why I hold silver coins rather than cash in fiat money.
3.6% more new housing out 0730 Central Time 20 Nov and--silver is as flat as a pancake. Pundits are screaming now where are the foreclosed homes on the market? The answer is, the banks are doing to those homes the same thing Bernanke did to balance sheets for banks--it's keeping those losers off the market. Supply and demand folks, what is going to happen to those homes that haven't hit the fan?
It's called overhang, and it's kind of like interest rates, artificially held in abeyance by manipulation.
If you don't want prices to fall, you don't sell thinks the banks, finally getting supply and demand right, for the moment.
For the moment, the market looks ok. It's like cancer though. You feel ok for just so long......
Claims came in better than expected and this was another day where the market didn't know what to do with itself until after lunch. Tomorrow we get to rest from all this nonsense and give thanks for having the blessing of having our currency valued by the banks that lend us money. This is a blessing because it has Thomas Jefferson rolling over in his grave, and nobody around from the Walking Dead cast to do him in.
I sold off some of my junk bond stuff today, and took an opportunity to load the gun with RGR which is on a tear, having granted a one time dividend for those in that stock before COB 4 December of $4.50, almost 8%. The stock is one of those thinly traded molassas like vehicles that even 42% short hasn't woken up and smell the squeeze yet, and it has been two days post divvy announcement for this gun manufacturer. I have so many shares of this stock when I wake up I can smell the cordite on my keyboard.
I'll take the ten percent all the way to the bank and your little divvy too.
Claims looked to dominate until Greece caused the euro to flop and the dollar to increase slightly, on top of last quarter's productivity decrease of 13% for SLW, I see the johnny come lately's are whining because they didn't invest at $3.50 and are stuck over $36. This is a repeat performance.
If claims show some decrease that might make some headway but the market is as flat as a pancake, as if all the steam was taken out on the burst of activity a week ago--that was the 2.8% the market screams is due it due to the Thanksgiving week plus two Macke and other Yahooligans are talking to.
It's a travel day on the eve of Thanksgiving, tomorrow is a no trading day, Friday is a short and expectedly volatile half day. I look forward to pulling the covers over my eyes for 48 hours at the least.
The alleged good numbers for housing starts didn't overcome specific news, like WhoLitPeckerd, and the Grostest Twinkee Pavilion, so the market didn't know what to do with itself, sometimes acting more like a Gallagher targeted melon patch.
Initial clams tomorrow should leave us steamed. Since I don't know what to make of this market, I remain watchful of technical indicators.
Helps me get to sleep..