26-30 Nov Economic Calendar: The Mystery Week is Really SSDD
We get to measure the impact of the fiscal cliff against improving home related numbers I anticipate this morning, and claims tomorrow as we approach the XMAS hiring season, as I worriedly look at those numbers as we approach the Jan 1 Doomsday scenario with expected "recalculations" that pull those temp workers back out of retail--and see the set up for the catastrophic fall unless.....
Since the market anticipates yet according to pundits fiddle farts between Europe, and unemployment--the fact is, if we do get promising figures and the market contracts, we have said all we need to about the massive effect of the fiscal cliff on investor psyche. Businesses aren't hiring that much anyway that we have to worry about contraction, actually, we did better when business had the pain of higher taxation--70%--I mean Germany which is supposed to be the bailout king of Europe has a flat rate of nearly 48% and they're the strongest country in that part of the world. Kind of augers against our philosophy that less taxes is better.
For WHO? Do you really think we can continue to borrow and spend year one, and pay it back in decreasingly valuable dollars forever before the world decides KMA? Isn't that issue the underlying reason that but for the "reserve currency" status we haven't deserved since 1971--we invest in silver now 10X the 1973 price?
Back to the immediate future, with Greece allegedly off the table with another $60B bailout, of which the US by the way fronts about 20%--the fact that Greece has until 2020 to get debt 125% of GDP, even a floundering dollar today doesn't reflect itself in silver prices PM.
The answer is clear--fiscal cliff will dominate everything over the next 5 weeks, five short weeks, and the market will be pressured no matter what the stock, over the next five weeks.
We could see a meltdown, but I see a loss of 7.5-10% looming in dribs and drabs, unless we get solid progress out of Congress. We haven't seen anything like that for 100 years, not the valuation of money or the declaration of war, or the past four years a single budget--until of course we develop a history of partial kick the can remedies the next generation will think is "normal"--and then the next series of endgame degradation will occur as the country implodes.
Got silver? Better, got guns? Welcome to "The Walking Dead".
Looks like new homes took a dip and last months downward revision when taken into the fact that home prices are rising month to month, means somebody ought to get the message that decreasing new home inventory helps existing home prices, but that was too much to hope for, until the market turned positive and the huge silver sell off abated. Picked up about 80 cents of the $1.25 or so underwater, still underwater about a percent, but well off the lows of the day.
Meantime my gun hobby is blasting away, having now gone up nine bux in the last two weeks. I feel like such a maven.