We interrupt Black Friday for an announcement: Thanksgiving was a week early, expect XMAS shoppers to have an extra week that looks good this year, and will be a PITA next with a lot of arm flapping. If new housing maintains its incredulous in this full post THXGVING Nov work week that "pace" will be a victory for the market--a market filled with meatheads looking for such nonsensical figures as if it were 1946, unless everybody is hoping every SANDY hit house winds up kindling. Claims claims claims is the other bugaboo, and frankly, I am shopping from this desk not at the mall, so retail clerks must shed a tear and quite a few jobs IMHO. That doesn't do brick and mortor any good, but watch AMZN soar.
The drama that is Europe will once again hit the fan, although after three years of this "crisis" we all are getting a little bored waiting for Europe to reinvent the Fed across disparate desperate states which can't stand each other in peacetime, when they are not trying to conquer each other in wartime. We all wait for the inevitable structure that mimics ours, why, even Jefferson is revolving in his grave at the thought of another consortium of banksters.
The only thing unprintable is the logic, the printing presses are reserved for dollars to pay for our annual excesses, and the fiscal cliff gets closer and closer, let the drama begin. Congress should be enjoying its 6 week recess as an excuse, but lo and behold, some are actually in town to jointly state with unanimity "no compromises, it's not like we are losing our jobs, it's only the real economy."
I say as an exception to policy we do engage terrorists and ask the Congress to do the right thing.
I don't mind being ignored, I just want to get to state that for the record.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Nov 27 8:30 AM Durable Orders Oct - -0.5% -0.4% 9.8% 9.9%
Nov 27 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Oct - -0.5% -0.4% 2.0% -
Nov 27 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Sep - 2.5% 3.1% 2.0% -
Nov 27 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Nov - 73.0 73.0 72.2 -
Nov 27 10:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Sep - NA NA 0.7% -
Nov 28 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/24 - NA NA -2.2% -
Nov 28 10:00 AM New Home Sales Oct - 395K 388K 389K -
Nov 28 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 11/24 - NA NA -1.466M -
Nov 28 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Oct - - - - -
Nov 29 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/24 - 400K 395K 410K -
Nov 29 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/17 - 3325K 3325K 3337K -
Nov 29 8:30 AM GDP - Second Estimate Q3 - 2.8% 2.8% 2.0% -
Nov 29 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Second Estimate Q3 - 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% -
Nov 29 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Oct - 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% -
Nov 30 8:30 AM Personal Income Oct - 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% -
Nov 30 8:30 AM Personal Spending Oct - 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% -
Nov 30 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Oct - 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% -
Nov 30 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Nov - 50.0 50.7 49.9
Inflation appears tame, if you look at PCI, another doctored number, and personal spending went down as folks anticipated Black Friday, so that isn't news, and the fiscal cliff is a whopping four weeks away--so who cares that is a whole four weeks, and who knows the Congress may get its act together, wrestle the mortgage income deduction from the middle class which pays for everything, fights all the undeclared wars against cavemen, for whom both rich and poor bear no resemblance. See how that works?
Stay tuned for next week. SSDD would be redundant, just like a gridlocked Congress about to pave what is left of Paradise.
And they won't even put up a parking lot. That would be productive.
Claims in an hour will rule the roost, can't remember if the pop from SANDY is already represented--but if so, it is being discounted in the general market futures up markedly--we'll see in about a half hour.
Since the fiscal cliff talks are just beginning, now is the time for optimism since there isn't a single proposal on the table and Congress in its inimical irresponsibility has been out of town a couple weeks.
In the meantime guns is outdoing butter, and all the co's with special dividends this season are NOT equal. My RGR gun manufacturing stock is going through the roof as all folks not holders of record 7 Dec miss out on the $4.50 dividend on this $59 stock, Shorts there comprise 40% of the float, and they've been squeezed mightily for the past 10 days TEN dollars this stock, which has about $12 to run till ex div.--and the co is running 6/24/365 with about a year of backorders. And it ain't even XMAS yet.
Unbeleebable. Silver flat so, got guns?
We get to measure the impact of the fiscal cliff against improving home related numbers I anticipate this morning, and claims tomorrow as we approach the XMAS hiring season, as I worriedly look at those numbers as we approach the Jan 1 Doomsday scenario with expected "recalculations" that pull those temp workers back out of retail--and see the set up for the catastrophic fall unless.....
Since the market anticipates yet according to pundits fiddle farts between Europe, and unemployment--the fact is, if we do get promising figures and the market contracts, we have said all we need to about the massive effect of the fiscal cliff on investor psyche. Businesses aren't hiring that much anyway that we have to worry about contraction, actually, we did better when business had the pain of higher taxation--70%--I mean Germany which is supposed to be the bailout king of Europe has a flat rate of nearly 48% and they're the strongest country in that part of the world. Kind of augers against our philosophy that less taxes is better.
For WHO? Do you really think we can continue to borrow and spend year one, and pay it back in decreasingly valuable dollars forever before the world decides KMA? Isn't that issue the underlying reason that but for the "reserve currency" status we haven't deserved since 1971--we invest in silver now 10X the 1973 price?
Back to the immediate future, with Greece allegedly off the table with another $60B bailout, of which the US by the way fronts about 20%--the fact that Greece has until 2020 to get debt 125% of GDP, even a floundering dollar today doesn't reflect itself in silver prices PM.
The answer is clear--fiscal cliff will dominate everything over the next 5 weeks, five short weeks, and the market will be pressured no matter what the stock, over the next five weeks.
We could see a meltdown, but I see a loss of 7.5-10% looming in dribs and drabs, unless we get solid progress out of Congress. We haven't seen anything like that for 100 years, not the valuation of money or the declaration of war, or the past four years a single budget--until of course we develop a history of partial kick the can remedies the next generation will think is "normal"--and then the next series of endgame degradation will occur as the country implodes.
Got silver? Better, got guns? Welcome to "The Walking Dead".
Looks like new homes took a dip and last months downward revision when taken into the fact that home prices are rising month to month, means somebody ought to get the message that decreasing new home inventory helps existing home prices, but that was too much to hope for, until the market turned positive and the huge silver sell off abated. Picked up about 80 cents of the $1.25 or so underwater, still underwater about a percent, but well off the lows of the day.
Meantime my gun hobby is blasting away, having now gone up nine bux in the last two weeks. I feel like such a maven.
Good marks this mornings indicators are being shrugged off by fiscal cliff worries, but if printing money is one of the solutions, silver buyers aren't paying attention either as one half percent floats away from per ounce pricing this morning. It's all excuses for ebbs and flows, and looks more and more like two ants fighting over who owns the farm on which their hill is located.
The biggest nagging fear in the deep recesses of everybody's mind, if the country actually shows some business oriented growth, the big elephant in the room, namely the Federal footprint, will evaporate like marks in beach sand at high tide. It's as if, o my gott, we have to do this without the Monopoly money maker stomping all over the landscape leaving big gouges in the economic landscape.
The market is off, my little stocks are showing some resilience, I am not ecstatic, but remain cautiously considering taking half off the table.
Although we likely all feel that in our hearts we know that the end game will just be more money creation—it's their only tool regardless of how it is deployed—the ping pong price activity in the precious metals markets has everyone waiting on the next big bargain opportunity. I think it also translates to the related equities.
Even with all the Pascua related crosstalk, SLW seems to remain an appreciative hedge against the monetary fraud that will continue until it implodes.
Looks like Europe is bailing out Greece with $60B in euros with a target of 125% debt to GDP ratio by 2020, and the market is buying none of it, up just a smidge with this latest bailout "resolution". Not even China economy showing sharp gains this evening helps until we in the US extract the poison pill of the fiscal cliff, a shot at self imposed frugality that has all the unnecessary brinksmanship you can muster.
I console myself with my newest fan, who is Henry Blodget, who recently echo'd my sentiment, that with the high taxation accompanying corporatocracy in the forties fifties and sixties, companies couldn't let profits sit in corporate coffers, they were forced to invest in workerbees to get a deduction, thereby insuring low unemployment. Now with corporations charged little, why expand?
I ought to charge a fee. Futures are up slightly on the Greek and Chinese news, but a cure for the fiscal cliff would be the perfect self fulfilling storm for the market in general altho, it takes some risk juice out of PM pre market.
The economies of the world have been basket cases since the Great Burglar, Richard Nixon, took us off the silver standard 1971, and ruined the world over the next half century by turning all the paper currencies into papier mache, a sculpting material made of strips of scrap paper, and salted starch and water glue.
Nowadays, papier mache is used by children to sculpt figures and masks, commercially used still to make pinatas, a Mexican doll smashed by children at festivals to release candy and trinkets stashed inside.
Just like our paper money. Fashioned from goo, but without any candy inside. No wonder everything costs 10X 1971 prices. We keep smashing the dollar every year without finding any candy.
Are you reading this Henry? Next time you don't mention Maloogie, I am going to sue.
“…and frankly, I am shopping from this desk not at the mall…”
Since you are doing all your shopping from your desk, as are a growing number, how soon will it be before the “brick and mortar” crowd prevails on the politicians in the Federal Government to, yet again, violate the US Constitution by taxing your out-of-state purchases? As we have seen with Chief Justice Roberts on the issue of universal health care, they can twist their rulings into an unrecognizable pretzel to come up with whatever ruling satisfies those with the most influence, Constitution be dimned (insert an “a” for the “i” to avoid Yahoo’s ridiculous concept of profanity).
Per Section 9 of the US Constitution: “…No Tax or Duty shall be laid on Articles exported from any State. …”
This issue always seems to come up during the “Holidays”, which more and more are nothing but a massive spending binge having little to do with the holiday itself. Internet purchases are causing the “brick and mortar” crowd considerable grief.
There certainly are a number of State Governors who are chomping at the bit to increase the take from increased Sales Taxes, again, Constitution be dimned, with apparent support from many mass media sources dependent on the “brick and mortar” crowd’s advertizing.
Another flaw in their argument, owing to the bleary-eyed lust for the grist of their power, is that "cross-border" sales are likely a wash and that the people benefit by having more disposable funds to spend at home as a result.
Then there's the danged nightmare of tracking out-of-state sales taxes and filling out all the sales tax forms. We do that for one state already and have no desire at all to become monthly form submitters for 49 others.
Moreover, a close examination of sales tax laws will reveal that it isn't something incumbent on the purchaser to pay; that would be a purchase tax instead. Sales taxes are levied on the privilege of selling at retail within the geographic borders of the permitting authority and not outside of it. That said, no other state has an arm long enough to reach into this one and command me to collect sales taxes for them and the State of Michigan has tried. The opportunity to flick boogers in that instance was very satisfying.
You are absolutely correct, we face a constitutional conundrum and the greedy politicians, those eager to siphon yet more money away from the people, see this as yet another way to accomplish their ends.
It is only a matter of time before Chief Justice Robert's goes back to being a villain of the left where he truly belongs. Rumors from the beltway indicate he is very bored by his 'new" intellectual company post healthcare decision.
As predicted, on a no news economic morning, Greece and fiscal cliff are the countdown issues bored business editors are pulling out of bottom drawers to comment on again. A few green shoots from the shopping weekend in the real economy are great news for those who believe in the real economy, but with Ben printing trillions, how do million dollar figures and numbers first entering the billion dollar levels compare? Kind of a letdown, isn't it? to see the real economy pale in comparison to the manipulated macro economy? It's like the manipulated dead and the real dead of Donnie Darko fame, all designated ensurance plays to lead our Receiver to restoring the Artifact back into the Primary universe, so the Temporary universe isn't destroyed, taking us into the end of the world. And we've only 36 days, 19 hours, 42 minutes and 11 seconds till then--we call it the fiscal cliff. And the big question concerning all of this economic nonsense remains the same as it was for that 2001 weird flick--if all the Supreme Being had to do to restore the universe was anything he wanted, why did he establish such a convoluted machination to do that? Why didn't he just restore the Universe? And we ask the same thing of all these macro economic leaders--if all they have to do is write a check equal to the debt by printing money, because that is the mechanism which was set in place by the Great Burglar, Richard Nixon, why don't they just print the money, write a check and end the drama?
Why ARE we wearing that silly man suit?
Yosemtie? Or am I being too obtuse? Markets are off a hair after the nutso last Friday. Which was a half day. Unless you count AH, which ran till 5PM EXT, which made it a whole day.
And that is without any unexpected holes in the space time continuum.