3-8 Dec Economic Calenduhh: Autos Mortgages and Claims Meets Fiscal Cliff
All those jobs cranked up the volume on the end of week bubblicious market, built on numbers that don't tell the story--on purpose. Early last year the government in a startling reveal of its plan, signaled it would be fabricating growth where there wasn't any to give a sense of false security to the masses, so that that, would become, self fulfilling prophesy.
This is something that works until it doesn't and reminds me of the grandiose five year plans published by the Soviet Union to "prove" the superiority of the collective. There is some stabilization, but I cannot believe that in spite of SANDY everything is rosy, when all we do is crank up the volume on the stats this month, and lower the stats from previous months.
It's like the old fake laugh track on comedies--it's fake and embarrassing, but is played like a script. Amazingly, it's played for keeps and amazingly, it may be working long enough for real traction to take place, which is anticipated by a market looking six months out. In the meantime, a REAL number is the prices for homes in the DC area, per Zilllow, has NOT retracted in the winter, on the contrary, is showing a modicum of growth.
THAT signals recovery about 18-24 months out, with fiscal cliffs avoided. That drop when the Congress fails, again, to compromise by XMAS has us all on pins and needles.
I await that sell off, even if it only takes us to today's levels from the next pop.