Cliff will continue to dominate unless the Congress in an unrestrained fit of double talk temp delays the Bush tax credits while they wrangle over the middle class' right to keep anything. One thing is certain, the poor won't have to do more, the rich won't have to be taxed, and the burden will fall on the middle class, which fights all the wars, pays all the taxes, does the meaningful work of the country, and on whose back the other two groups so mightily rely.
I keep wondering when the world wakes up to the fact that interest rates are being kept low through middle 2015 BY A GUY WHO IS LEAVING THAT JOB IN JAN 14. You see how that doesn't work? I have been waiting for the Yahoo moment when those pundits mention that fact, but they are so wound around the fiscal cliff that "minor" issue hasn't reared its head.
GL this week. Like every week, you'll need some, and by the way, before you jump onto all those special dividends, you might want to check how much those stocks went north post announcement. They go ex div right and usually plummet--and then, the next couple weeks it's fiscal cliff time.
See how that doesn't work?
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Dec 3 10:00AM ISM Index Nov - NA NA 51.7 -
Dec 3 10:00AM Construction Spending Oct - NA NA 0.6% -
Dec 3 2:00 PM Auto Sales Nov - NA NA 5.2M -
Dec 3 2:00 PM Truck Sales Nov - NA NA 6.0M -
Dec 5 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/01 - NA NA -0.9% -
Dec 5 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Nov - NA NA 158K -
Dec 5 8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. Q3 - NA NA 1.9% -
Dec 5 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs -Rev Q3 - NA NA -0.1% -
Dec 5 10:00AM Factory Orders Oct - NA NA 4.8% -
Dec 5 10:00AM ISM Services Nov - NA NA 54.2 -
Dec 5 10:30AM Crude Inventories 12/01 - NA NA -0.347M -
Dec 6 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Nov - NA NA 11.6% -
Dec 6 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/1 - NA NA 393K -
Dec 6 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/24 - NA NA 3287K -
Dec 7 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Nov - NA NA 171K -
Dec 7 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Nov - NA NA 184K -
Dec 7 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Nov - NA NA 7.9% -
Dec 7 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Nov - NA NA 0.0% -
Dec 7 8:30 AM Average Workweek Nov - NA NA 34.4 -
Dec 7 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Dec - NA NA 82.7 -
Dec 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Oct - NA NA $11.4B -
All those jobs cranked up the volume on the end of week bubblicious market, built on numbers that don't tell the story--on purpose. Early last year the government in a startling reveal of its plan, signaled it would be fabricating growth where there wasn't any to give a sense of false security to the masses, so that that, would become, self fulfilling prophesy.
This is something that works until it doesn't and reminds me of the grandiose five year plans published by the Soviet Union to "prove" the superiority of the collective. There is some stabilization, but I cannot believe that in spite of SANDY everything is rosy, when all we do is crank up the volume on the stats this month, and lower the stats from previous months.
It's like the old fake laugh track on comedies--it's fake and embarrassing, but is played like a script. Amazingly, it's played for keeps and amazingly, it may be working long enough for real traction to take place, which is anticipated by a market looking six months out. In the meantime, a REAL number is the prices for homes in the DC area, per Zilllow, has NOT retracted in the winter, on the contrary, is showing a modicum of growth.
THAT signals recovery about 18-24 months out, with fiscal cliffs avoided. That drop when the Congress fails, again, to compromise by XMAS has us all on pins and needles.
I await that sell off, even if it only takes us to today's levels from the next pop.
How far into Chicken Little markets react to a steady or increasing unemployment claim scenario is how you look at the impact not only on the single issue of lingering near 8% unemployment.
How that affects Congress in its haste to beat feat before solving fiscal cliff issues, both parties seem willing to push past Jan 1, and have now tied debt ceiling drama in. This is akin to using a fire house dispensing gasoline on an already out of control conflagration.
Unemployment too much? Urgency to solve fiscal cliff abounds, failure invites more general market catastrophe and year end selling as the beat the tax increase flurry continues through mid week last week of December for most funds--28 Dec as the holders of record must be cleared by 31 Dec, topped off by the dawdling retail markets....
All this rush into the Dow stocks tells you something, and NASDAQ reluctantly catches up half way only at the end of the trail. Notice the unraveling in opposite when that occurs for adroit end of year posturing. Can Boner fire enough radical Republicans from committee seats to make a difference in his collecting enough power to negotiate the peace, I mean the fiscal cliff issues?
SANDY impact, the flow of $200B into the Eastern corridor to rebuild, awaits recognition. It must be FEMA money, all the insurance guys we note are eager not to pay anyone with no flood insurance, no matter what the cause of the damage.
So where is all this relief from flood issues with the insertion of all that printed money? It's in the form of loans not printed cash.
See how that works? See you when the data flows PM. GLWT.
Looks like they cooked the books to reveal more job creation in the mid 150'000's and 7.7% unemployment. Lots of wows as the SANDY phenom blew over (cough cough).
Looks like the pressure's off on the fiscal cliff, doesn't it? Looks like somebody is supporting the market bubble, and succeeding this morning, although the silver hounds at kitco haven't reacted instantly.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....can you say Goldilocks is pleased with numbers "better" but not the 300K we need to sustain a recovery in three, not 23 years?
Somebody will holler fiscal cliff and the market will look for chairs. Looks like for now, the music is still playing.
I hope it's Mancini. We're "Lost in Dreamsville."
Jobless claims less than expected 1 Dec, but revised up a hair previous month. It's XMAS hiring vrs SANDY, and the outlook still has futures and silver skittish. Yesterday was a hunt for the DOW "quality" at the expense of the NAS--today unfolds on the back of ADP down and overall claims a bit more bullish but still crap.
Let's see which way the lemmings run.
Post SANDY and the claims should be busting out all over in about a half hour. Negative market expected, and the business side of silver should drag SLV down. SLW has been at variance. It's a daytraders end of year dressing yadda yadda world, and the fiscal cliff has Boner firing the lunatic fringe of the Repukelican Party from key committee membership, as a key warning shot he is in charge.
If he fires the entire lunatic fringe, he's liable to be the only guy in town, and that's only because he holds the gun. Save the last bullet.
No love for the other side of handout heaven with Oblamer, whose last day in office will end with a resounding "it's Bush's fault" Clinton's era of no doc loans probably had nothing to do with it? Perhaps both parties should stick the finger of blameuptheircollectiveasses and get back to governing from the center.
Silly me. Time to collect cheap shares.
The $200B dollar bill for SANDY will be more a boon than bust, but not on this side of the fiscal cliff, as nobody noticed that rebuilding the NorthEast post SANDY is a constructive economic event. YET. And all that DOW pop means folks are shifting to more bellweather stocks if they're obeying Buffet's injunction to "ride out the fiscal cliff." Meantime Boner, leader of the Republican terrorist group, is firing his lunatic fringe from committees to shore up his power to compromise, and in one week everybody goes on vacation.
So if you think that DOW pop is anything but defensive sector rotation, think again. Silver turned around to end flat to the penny, but was dying on the vine only to be saved by don't worry be happy Congressional comments. nobody believes. The sides have not yet sat down.
Traders delight, but not to be looked at by feint of heart. GLTA, and oh, when the unemployment claims numbers come out today and Friday, duck.
Your economic assessment is based on a false premise—that rebuilding what has been damaged is somehow an economic plus. If what you said was true, it would be to our benefit to blow up buildings, set fires and simply walk around breaking windows. We could destroy our way to prosperity. That would coincide with the other false paradigm, that of borrowing ourselves there.
That paradigm has been debunked adequately and I'm surprised you've not encountered the rebuttal before now.
Gee wonder if employment in the middle of Sandy went south? Wonder if all those pundits yelling dont sell the cliff really meant dont sell and ruin myXMSS byhaving to bail myself out and work.....
Why are you wondering? Slw held nicely in the selloff today of silver.
Day off macroeconomically? Naw. Fiscal cliff is centerstage. Greeks "solved" crisis has euro surging but silver overnight DOWN one percent.
I am 75% cash. There is a reason. Yosemete?
Nobody likes I have fresh powder? Well adp employment fell more than expected, Bernanke is buying more worthless bonds, proctivity down, mortgage apps up, is a jungle out there and fiscal cliff looks precarious as 7 days remain before official holidays begin.
I look forward to supporting SLW with dry powder