Kick back Monday, but not too far back because all those SUBJECT headlines take a back seat to fiscal clods in DC pointing fingers after stickingthemupourasses for 50 years. Leave the spend side cliff's ville, and let the tax breaks continue--file under fat chance--the FOMC follow up Bernookie bleats will make the market cringe like a 15 year old emerging from a plunge into Glacier Lake. That's because he'll resurrect his plea for fiscal sanity (at least the way he defines it) and those with profits to go will sell sell sell starting next week probably right after he rings that bell. Preserving capital, not crapitall, is the day.
FOMC will stay the course, citing perhaps, an employment goal of 6% plus three quarters of growth before #$%$ with irates. Remember the first quarter point pop in overnight rates the market will discount the entire next 4% in about two months, which is to say 20% downturn in the Dow short term as a result. And don't forget, any Bernookie promises disappear like a fart in the wind about mid summer when everybody notices he's out of a job Jan 2015.
Who even KNOWS what kind of economist Oblamer wants to take his place. It's unprintable.
Unlike our money. See how that works?
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Dec 11 8:30 AM Trade Balance Oct - -$43.0B -$42.7B -$41.5B -
Dec 11 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Oct - 0.3% 0.4% 1.1% -
Dec 12 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/08 - NA NA 4.5% -
Dec 12 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Nov - NA NA 0.2% -
Dec 12 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Nov - NA NA 0.3% -
Dec 12 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 12/08 - NA NA -2.357M -
Dec 12 12:30 PM FOMC Rate Decision Dec - 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% -
Dec 12 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Nov - -$113.0B -$113.0B -$137.3B -
Dec 13 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/08 - 375K 375K 370K -
Dec 13 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 12/01 - 3250K 3200K 3205K -
Dec 13 8:30 AM Retail Sales Nov - 0.6% 0.4% -0.3% -
Dec 13 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Nov - 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -
Dec 13 8:30 AM PPI Nov - -0.5% -0.5% -0.2% -
Dec 13 8:30 AM Core PPI Nov - 0.1% 0.1% -0.2% -
Dec 13 10:00 AM Business Inventories Oct - 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% -
Dec 14 8:30 AM CPI Nov - -0.2% -0.2% 0.1% -
Dec 14 8:30 AM Core CPI Nov - 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% -
Dec 14 9:15 AM Industrial Production Nov - 0.5% 0.4% -0.4% -
Dec 14 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Nov - 78.0% 78.0% 77.8% -
Don't look now but the Pres of Italy Mario Monte is leaving the scene, putting all those "policies" designed to qualify it for fiscal relief up for grabs Greek style, which strengthens our dollar, and provides buzzkill for futures on this no economic news day. Oblamer and Boner are busy making believe they are working for a fiscal cliff deal for the benefit of the unwashed and uninformed. neither can deliver the goods, because our Congress with its whopping 9% approval rating, is out to lunch physically as well as mentally.
Where do you think Congress is? Dodging responsibility while both sides think each has a mandate to gridlock the govt., while we who invest in this dollar destruction dependent market pay the difference. Futures are in the toilet, and I wouldn't be long in this market if you gave it to me with ten foot Pole.
Besides, the Pole would quit after making economic related protestations to support some financial bailout, then bailout himself, the dollar would soar, the market would crumble.
See how that works?
Long what exactly? If you bail on SLW or any other equity, you have to hold dollars and that, too, is a dicey situation. Frankly, I think SLW is much safer than dollars, not as good as metal in hand, mind you, but safer than dollars in any case.
I say that because of the growing likelihood that the SCO will roll out a proportionally gold backed currency, as much as 40% some say, and were that to happen, dollars, along with all other fiat, becomes immediately passe.
Whats out there thats safer than precious metals if this does happen. Id bet they kick the can down the road or Obama lets the tax reductions expire. After all doesnt a Socialist want higher taxes for everyone across the board and spending cuts at zero ?
A few planned economic blivits today, but all eyes on the Fed and those #$%$ artists #$%$ and Oblamer.
The FOMC is not expected to change any numerical targets, but continuing bond buying with printed rather than depleted short term money, and THAT's silver friendly. They may even target an unemployment number instead of waffle words for the days when irates can be cranked up again. Well that was yesterday, tonight silver elves are taking some off the table.
For silver what looked good yesterday isn't holding overnight, we're still inching forward in the general market by either the greatest headfake in the history of headfakes, if fiscal cliffs aren't avoided, or no. Institutions riding this one out have more ballyounies than I can ever boast. The prospect of sell half your winners now, keep half just in case, added to sell losers and offsetting winners, is just what the prudent demand, and that doesn't happen under the radar, although there was some sector rotation into the Dow and the bigger S and P 500 this past two weeks. That's a real sell side prophesy for the next two weeks--the only way that will be sidestepped is if both Oblamer and #$%$ stand up and say, forget the law of the land, we were kidding, we can still get this done by 31 January 2013. The markets will breathe a sigh of relief, and the rule of law will take another in a series of knife wounds to the gut.
Our legacy to our kids: when the going gets tough, the tough shout we were kidding.
Getting boring being right. Fiscal cliff floors silver, SLW runs countrend one day and snaps back down with the POS day 2. CPI better be tame. Those new Fed targets will be throwing cold water on markets for two years with the Fed printing away now having exhausted short term debt swapping for real wholesale printing. See how that works, finally?