Although SLW USA and SLW Canada bounced off the prices I gave, things don't look that good even with the rally since my purchase.The fall in the silver price over the last few days suggest that the ultimate low (27.776) will completely wipe out the August starting point in this rally. low =$32.15 SLW Canada is an equivalent, it seems. Doesn't make sense to me that an august rally that strong should be negated, but I have to go strickly by the numbers.
[All numbers are in relation to the March 2013 futures contract]
After seven days of falling, a relief rally from here is likely but don't get overly excited. The only way the bull can reassert itself is if (1) Silver can push back above $30.47 which is close to the 200 day moving average $30.58, so really it should try and close above 30.58 end of day today and (2) ultimate proof of a bull back in control will demonstrate with a price close above $31.544 in the next couple of days. that 30.16 number i gave this morning is still significant if only for closing purposes today.
30.16 should have held in silver but checking trader chatter suggests tax planning in effect now and taking the cap gains instead of being taken to the shed 2013. Larry Ellison style 200 million and all.this pushed prices further than they should have fallen, right!
1.5 hrs left, a lot can happen. Saw volume buying (similar to capitulation volume) happen just before 1:30 pm to try and prevent silver falling more.
Summary: Bears in control. Next 48 hr will likely see relief rally after the continued selling for 7 days. Should sell long positions into strength up to 30.477. With a close above30.477 retake long position and begin selling into strength upto 31.544 silver. If it closes above 31.544 for 4 to 6 hrs retake long position because bull back in control.