Monday is a half day in the market, Tuesday we get to commune with folks that by happenstance of birth and proximity, we wouldn't normally violate their airspace NONETHELESS- tis the season.
With Monday a half day I guess we lose half percent instead of one whole percent. Just kidding. I'm decking the halls some other time, a lung infection and flu has me heating the home with my forehead and travel is out of the question. I sound like Andy Devine, (look him up) but, I hope to recover just in time for NY's eve. So I can abuse myself and have a nice relapse.
The Congress will be back in session to do nothing adroitly XMAS week, the fiscal cliff looms as it has for a year, like an aircraft carrier we've "suddenly" discovered is heading into dock much too fast, and all we can do is brace ourselves for the collision in slow mo. this January.
By then increased taxes and Draconian spending cuts will be the norm--then--returning to the Bush tax cuts will look like a tax CUT not a tax hike, and the Congressmen and women that need that #$%$ cover and concealment, might compromise. See? I have pipe dreams just like anybody else.
In the meantime, I am 3/4 in cash waiting for the end of year sell off everybody said wouldn't happen to crash the market on Wednedsay and Thursday, the last days that folks can do window dressing. It will be as wild as it can be in my mumbling opinion. And yes I will be opportunistic, and that is a word that contains the thought process opportunity. I'm for opportunity, and it looks like we are going to get plenty.
As to gold and silver, we have hit a floor and bounced a bit. If that holds fine, but the world never gets over itself very quickly, safe haven remains the dollar, or I should say the dime since that is all the buying power left after 40 years of printing and making that look like "growth".
But most of us know that already. GLTA and Merry Ho HO.
Dec 26 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/22 - NA NA NA -
Dec 26 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Oct - 3.0% 3.9% 3.0% -
Dec 27 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/22 - 365K 375K 361K -
Dec 27 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 12/15 - 3200K 3200K 3225K -
Dec 27 10:00 AM New Home Sales Nov - 390K 379K 368K -
Dec 27 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Dec - 68.0 70.0 73.7 -
Dec 27 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 12/22 - NA NA -82 bcf -
Dec 28 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Dec - 51.0 51.0 50.4 -
Dec 28 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Nov - 1.0% 1.0% 5.2% -
Dec 28 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 12/21 - NA NA -0.964M
For those who read my pathetic posts the following will be familiar, if yahoo will allow a little cutting and pasting.
We need to stop interfering with 3rd world nations. We need to avoid making war on 3rd world nations. If we stop, maybe we won't experience blowback the CIA term for retaliation for meddling, a good reason for 9/11 per the CIAS. That's the CIA not me.
Achieve independence from foreign oil. Start with 45-60 MPG cars. We're one Arab embargo circa 1973 too late.
Walk away from the Muddle East. Israel's got nukes.
Revisit military pay and entitlements. They've tripled since 1971 in real money terms. Military service is a privilege, civilian Federal or state service for all citizens a great opportunity to participate in the government we so despise. As it was 1776-1971. Note: we won every war except Vietnam, how much you pay soldiers and sailors is immaterial. Never saw anyone in a foxhole under fire ask for a union vote. Note 2: Conventional war is obsolete. We have nukes for a reason.
Get other countries to defend themselves. Reduce US Navy and other military presence worldwide. Hint: WW II is done. Example: Why not leave Korea, it's been 65 years. When is enough, enough?
Make insurance to pay for health care opportunities OUTSIDE the United States. State of the art routine operations outside the United States costs are ONE THIRD that in the US. COMPETITION works.
Quit caring how other countries set their economic tables. 80% have free markets anyway. If they don't want to take off their burkas, become neurosurgeons, and watch Desperate Housewives reruns, our involvement shouldn't pass the so what test. Use diplomacy. Bullshitisfree.
The US dollar should be backed with a basket of commodites, gold silver, platinum, palladium, corn soybeans, pork bellies, etc. Note: Everything that cost a dime in 1971 is a dollar today because the dollar is government, not free market controlled. That 90% degradation, the planned disintegration of the dollar is created by printing presses paying for deficit spending made popular by those who think borrow and spend is better than pay for and spend.
When the dollar stabilizes, people can save. They may be able to retire without watching their savings disappear at the rate of 6% a year.
See how that might work?
Another option is to make the dollar inherently valuable via nanoparticles of silver embedded in it, to the level that its worth approaches believable value. Given silver's future, this would mean hoarding of dollars,or savings, would reappear.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I was with you until the dollar backing with a basket of commodities. It wouldn't be much different from that which we have now; there would be no convertibility or redemption possible under those circumstances and the ability for the manipulators would be expanded ten-fold.
Money must be something unmanipulable. Gold and silver, platinum, too, offer that feature. That's one of the clear aspects found in the Coinage Act of 1792, which I recommend that each of you read. And if I cannot redeem what is in essence a paper warehouse receipt for the "real stuff" behind the money, it really has no value just like the fiat today. Commerce must return to a value for value, a substance for substance basis. Such a system removes most of the cause behind monetary fraud and better yet helps to restore the spirit of rugged individualism once an American trait now long absent.
My tongue in cheek prediction that Monday is a half day in the market, so the losses will only be half percent, is coming true with eerie regularity.
All futures except silver seem to be off about a half percent. at midnight Central time Sunday night 23 Dec
Market futures are off half percent as we walk into the first full day of the last week of 2012, and silver is off a smidge. I think five percent of the market will evaporate as funds and large investors dump in the wake of DC gridlock on taxes for 2013. The rule of "take half" off the table is going to invoke itself, and I think perversely, even next week unless the don't worry be happy juice drunk NY's eve still finds investors drunk throughout the week. That's because somebody got the thought process that, if worked next year, all could claim a tax "cut" from a hike already in place. Apparently lawflakers need to be able to show, months from now during elections next November, they were for tax reductions instead of tax hikes, and hope nobody does the math. Considering the intelligence of the American investor, retail or professional, they may have something going there. Nobody made a dime underestimating the stupidity of the investing public, which has mistaken the disappearing value of the dollar for "growth" for nearly half century.
Home related marks this morning, and claims the end of week will guide the macro's but I don't see how that matters as long as the Congress and the seat of power all have nothing but chitstains to show us. Time will tell.
It's 1 AM Pacific Coast time. Do you know where your investments are?
Ah!!! The Obama Messiah returns on a redeye EARLY to DC which he and the criminals in the Congress should never have left, to "save the day" with decisions about the fecal cliff, all doable according to the great unwashed, by a few keystrokes on an Ipad. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
In the wee hours, the market turns from minus 1/2% to plus 1/4%.
Welcome to the mother of all headfakes, where, see? The PRESIDENT is returning to the scene of the crimes to fix everything! That's about 60-180 seconds of hope a dope on the charts, but, assuming everybody under 35 copied the same history and poly sci term papers off the internet and didn't even bother to read them, it makes sense where knowledge how government works is zilch. Or in this case, how government doesn't work, a dead sea scroll as indecipherable as paper dollars are depleted. And Japan gives us a lesson again, that to take the buying power out of your currency gives you the appearance of competitiveness, and the yen falls, and the dollar soars against it. The race is on to turn our dollars into three day sushi, and Bennies buying bonds with printed money to be fair, was the first salvo.
Willst you be buying or selling? Even silver is up a sliver. Even Herpelife, always suspect as an AVON like Ponzi scheme, rightly or wrongly, is up on the news its biggest investor had his thumb on the roulette wheel, selling short or buying puts. Notice nobody is citing whether his investment was credible, they only site his opposite positioning. The powers that be are gonna git 'em, that seems to be enough for now.
In the meantime, the headlines scream "your mortgage deduction will disappear" you're going to have to pay tax on the $4000 a year your employer dumps into your health insurance, and under Oblamer, that will be just about everyone. "your second home you will lose that mortgage deduction", the exact opposite of all the stimulus that has brought us to date back to 7.7% unemployment from just over 10%. Yes we're rationing the blood supply right in the middle of a transfusion, and yes, we've done this before, circa 1935, and pulled the entire country back into Depression.
The cliff looms, and the claims loom, and the housing looms.
I should have invested in looms.
I predict the market will repeat pop and drop today and all the way through till next week, when it will tank in earnest. Silver isn't waiting, it's off 1/2% PM.
So stay away from earnest. Whatta guy! Buy tanks! The world needs us spending trillions protecting it from the Klingons.
Welllllllhellhellllllllll.............the House is meeting on Sunday right after whining into an empty sky, the get to whine into an empty room to come up with bubkas!!!
But after confidence numbers that show the only confidence we have is in the incompetence of theleadershit, the whole idea of some light at the end of the tunnel, the market pops off the lows of the day, and recaptures some.
Before tomorrow, when all that misplaced hope a dope dries up .