to trade on fundementals as opposed to force fed liquidity it could get real lonely real fast in this sector.Silver will hold a bid albeit from a much lower level based on the industrial useage.Once the retail player realizes in the comming months the free cash is going away all miners will be trading much lower with the commodity!!!!The short interest in SLW is less than 1% of total outstanding shares and this hedge fund hotel has been pumping for quite some time...Time will tell but those who are waiting for SLW to "break out" may have a very long time.This model works great in a rising environment however really poorly in a declining environment...I think we are about to find out in short order...The complacency in the PM market is huge!
...Complacency in all markets huge. If fed cut the QE spigot TBTF banks would be toast, US / taxpayers would be toast in a rising interest rate environment, residential real estate would be once again toast if mortgage rates that have been drawing in investors at under 3% 15 year fixed! would rise. What wouldn't be toast, one must ask.
Your thesis seems to be predicated on the foolish assumption that inflation numbers as rendered by the federal government have any basis in reality. Since, and for quite some time now, their primary function has been solely to shape perception so as to throttle anything that could possibly damage dollar hegemony, any utterance, including weather reports, is jaundiced.
Ive been hearing the same nonsense for years and yes I fully understand there is food/health care/fuel inflation however as far as the market is concerned wage/housing inflation is non existant.In the mean time the PM market is going out of favor and could possibly get hit hard here when the full assett allocation of the new year is completed...The last several years funds have been buying the PM sector in earnest at the start of the year...This year appears to be the begining of a dump fest which could actually pick up speed to the downside....Good Luck....Silver does have alot of industrial uses and will find a bottom in the comming months much lower..As far as a safety play of retail and the tutes that was news for the last 12 years.....