For those who missed the great recovery of 2008-2013, may fortune shine as the little guy discovers the market. The NASDAQ is still only 39% off the 2001 high.
Those of you not already depressed at the little guy's inability to do anything but buy high and sell low, I salute you with respect to this market's "recovery". Funds are shifting out of bonds, including high yield, at a rate that can only indicate cat's on hot tin roofs move quickly, without purpose, and don't always land on their feet when they fall. Is this the return of the little guy? Is the next aspect of the fiscal cliff going to turn everyone's tummy this Feb? Do bears defecate in the woodsies? Stay tuned.
PPI and CPI should remain minuscule. Retail sales should show a very modest bump. Auto, we know, is flying. Look for increases in inventories and production as turtles peek out to survey the future.
Claims is the elephant in the room, until fiscal cliff part two begins to be discussed, and so, reporting fourth quarter appears to be more important to a market with ADD. New housing starts would be another uptick surprise, I guess they must have sold all those foreclosed homes, a prospect we don't hear much about lately--must have sold those to the Chinese. I still don't get it.
Home prices show a 10% YOY pop in my neighborhood. They just entered prices asked the spring of 2004. They've 25% to go, to reach 2006 peaks. According to my hen scratches, that's 25% to go to equal what they should be costing 2013. That's THREE years from this summer coming. 2016. I think that we won't see irates start to pop until 2018, but if our government is not that smart, I will amend that to 2016. I will let you finish out the next sarcastic statement about government and the concept of "smart".
Java security glitches prevail, and I just offloaded mine till those miscreants fix the holes.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Jan 15 8:30 AM Retail Sales Dec - 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% -
Jan 15 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Dec - 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% -
Jan 15 8:30 AM PPI Dec - 0.0% 0.0% -0.8% -
Jan 15 8:30 AM Core PPI Dec - 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% -
Jan 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Jan - 0.0 2.0 -8.1 -
Jan 15 10:00 AM Business Inventories Nov - 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% -
Jan 16 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 01/12 - NA NA 11.7% -
Jan 16 8:30 AM CPI Dec - 0.0% 0.0% -0.3% -
Jan 16 8:30 AM Core CPI Dec - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -
Jan 16 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Nov - NA NA $1.3B -
Jan 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Dec - 0.1% 0.2% 1.1% -
Jan 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Dec - 78.5% 78.5% 78.4% -
Jan 16 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Jan - 47 48 47 -
Jan 16 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 01/12 - NA NA 1.314M -
Jan 16 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Jan - - - - -
Jan 17 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/12 - 375K 370K 371K -
Jan 17 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/05 - 3150K 3100K 3109K -
Jan 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Dec - 880K 889K 861K -
Jan 17 8:30 AM Building Permits Dec - 880K 905K 899K -
Jan 17 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Jan - 1.0 5.2 4.6 8.1
Jan 17 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 01/12 - NA NA -189 bcf -
Jan 18 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Jan - 76.0 75.0 72.9 -
The worm has appeared in the AAPL. They're cutting production of the senior money maker in half, and working on a cheaper model. That is the death knell of any co--I won't compete on prettier niftier platforms, I will compete on putting out a cheaper phone.
Talk about a stock about to go belly up, those are the bellnotes of a co that is going from cutting edge to the guillotine, another cutting edge called mature co. How far does this go go giant have to fall to be a value co? You can't go by yesterday's JOBS report, he's dead. And SAMSUNG is nipping at AAPL's groin.
Problem is, AAPL, the AT and T of the modern era, is about to do a Fosberry flop into the abyss.
I can't wait. I wonder if it will be "don't worry about the $1-2K pop in payroll taxes per person, I was just kidding about the fiscal cliff" or how about "those Congress guys better jigger up the debt ceiling, that's in honor of money ALREADY spent, and somebody has to pay the bills according to the Constitution (that piece of paper as George W. Bush used to call it) or we're going over the fiscal cliff" or how about, "party like it's 2006, the housing market has just begun to recover because the banks have hidden away all that rotting foreclosed real estate and I let em keep it off the books, and I am printing money at $80B a MONTH to keep irates low, so, get to refying with all those new higher standards and---by the way, did I say I won't be here next year so, GLWT!!".
Da da da da daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, da-yah--------dump!
Life in America is becoming a bizarre kaleidoscopic video play by Stanley Kubrick, one complete with fabricated murders and open treason.
We have been working very hard dealing with all of our vendor's price increases, of which the mean is about 5.75% from what I've looked at closely. Bear in mind, the markets we are talking about are still depressed, those being housing and manufacturing.
The grocery store tally tells a different tale as well.
The legitimacy of any government promulgated statistical information, i.e., statistical propaganda more accurately, is growing more and more to be divergent from what I see occurring. I suspect that to be the case for most. By consequence, strategy devised using that info as a basis for decision making seems somewhat dubious.