The Ag price tried to take on 31.86 but couldn't hold it.
It seemed that the bulls were poised to really run but then the dollar index broke out of a 65 hour range in a bullish direction by 0.54 points. After the dollar hit the ceiling at 80.26 it reversed back down coinciding with the rebound in the silver price. Thereafter, the dollar strengthened again pushing commo's down.
FOR THE BULLS:
The day chart still looks good with 5 consecutive days of positive closes. Silver just creeped over the 200 day MA a few days ago. Although the pullback this morning looked scary, it can be looked at as consolidation. They say when the PM bull really takes off, you won't be able to trade it. These charts are currently very, very difficult to trade, this is why I keep calling them ugly. My win rate is a lower than normal. Perhaps this is a sign the PM bull is getting ready to go. some trading desks were dipping their toes in with about $1 million, here or there, scaling in cautiously long over the last couple of days on SLW( saw a few 20,000 to 30,000 share purchases)
FOR THE BEARS
The day chart is keeping this thing alive. The shorter time frame charts are screaming for a collapse, but for some reason it keeps going up. The dollar fell back around noon, but in the afternoon it strengthed again. does this mean its going to go after 80.26? If it does, bears will have the advantage. The gap up, close down on SLW, sort of damaged the chart a bit but SLW still remains above the 5 day, so you can only get marginally excited. Some of the trading desks reduced their positions in SLW today.
What the NUMBERS SAY:
It's all about momentum. Bulls have it above 31.86 (published this morning), bears have it below. The price is probably going to close right at 31.86 meaning its a draw.