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your words are kind, as always.
You're absolutely right, this move has been incredibly hard to trade, incredibly stated again for effect.. My models haven't worked for a week. I'm eyeballing it and using my other trading skills on the fly.
I don't normally talk about fundamentals but something is lurking in the background (non debt related crisis).
28's in silver might be too low for now. Of course, it all depends on the dollar strength in relation to what the dollar does when/if it gets to 80.26. gold but more so silver leading, traded like a currency. I've been short since I started this thread and playing it by ear on when I cover. I think the cover will present itself sometime within the next 36 hours. my gut says somewhere in the $31.xx mid to lower. if the dollar gets above 80.26 you have to keep your short.
too early to call
Good calls Chem.
Lurking in the background (non debt related crisis) is (IMO) the "currency wars" I've been watching develop.
It's going to get nasty with unintended consequences.
In fact, I hope there is a poster who sees this developing and discusses it.It will impact PMs.
But it's not clear to anyone yet how it will play out.
I have my own suspicians and plans.
There'll be money to make (and lose) depending on which side of which trade we're on.
For example, I expect emerging markets to weaken their currency against the currency of trading partners to gain advantages and it will also bolster their markets.
But, we have also been watching the US play this game against China.
Now we are seeing Japan as they learned and are starting to play hardball.
Amazing how the dollar steadily was weakening until other countries figured out the game.
But, eventually, one consequence will be hyper inflation, or worse, stagflation.
If stagflation ensues, many will lose........
i thought currency wars too,... on lurking
phantom print at 31.30 silver ( i think @ comex, nymex does not show the trade printing) might be the place to get long, prices will be drawn to it.
dollar not moving inversely to silver, they are moving in unison, both up, both down. Dollar is being called higher based on the chart intraday. wanted to get long 31.43 but that ghost print says wait
you ever notice that the 3rd day after options expiry tend to be a short term bottom for the metals and miners? That's the day the piper comes looking so people are forced to sell. If its true then look for the low of this move sometime this afternoon. Just an observation, my Chrystal ball is just a opaque as everyone else's.
I'm not playing the options in silver.. I've observed what you say through a Futures perspective and the dynamics of the week during rollover.. hopefully you know a little about futures trading for this explanation:
As you probably now, the futures prices determines the prices of silver, not the spot price nor the options. spot price and options do influence the futures price though, and have their place. .
During the rollover from the front month to the back month in the Futures, delivery notices are issued for those wanting physical delivery. Three days before "First Notice" day on futures is options expiry, the Tuesday usually. During the week players are rolling their positions from front month to the back month in Futures and Friday (really more like the Monday) everything becomes stable again and if a pop is to happen, that's a pretty good pop day (either up or down) but i wouldnt say all one way (bullish).
I've seen everything settle and it falls like a rock; and I've seen everything settle and pops like a rocket; i've seen everything settle and it starts one way only to have headline news like bernanke speak and it shoots the opposite way in a NY minute.
i guess it just depends
On another note, glad YDM is ok too.
with regard to SLV and SLW ... SLW got over the 50DMA but bumped up against its down trend line, failed to hold the 50DMA and sold off quite quickly... As for SLV or silver you cant rule out a shakeout prior to expiration next week... I am Fundamentally bullish on both SLW and SLV but must say the price action on SLW is screaming lower prices ahead... dont care to admit it but SLW may lose another dollar or so in the short run....
Look at the bright side for those of us who sold calls last week: We get to buy them back cheap today and sell another batch at the same strike when the stock pops in a few days! There's always a way to make money at this :)