and the precious metals seem to be taking it on the chin because of all the "good" news. The jobless, housing debacle recovery, the danger is the Fed believes its own rhetoric and withdraws from buying bonds--the market will subtract about four percentage overnight points in a heart beat.
More FOMC headline discussion about when to stop buying bonds is already kicking the pants out of the market, and especially PM, because this time, the folks aren't TWISTING, they're really printing the 80B per quarter--and that needs to go away or we will enter a hyperinflationary cycle. It couldn't be a worse time to have this discussion in public as we are just reaching the home buying season end of March--stabilizing home values at the 2004 level was just the start--nobody has seen what adding a $2000 burden in payroll taxation will do to the middle class, the fifty percent carrying the nation while others have hands out or are so wealthy it doesn't matter.
And this is just the discussion. Bernookie leaves the scene in 2014 and that unknown and the cry "the economy is wearing no clothes" is felt throughout the land.
Four big states, including the NE and W Coast, are still 25% below peak housing prices, and no matter how you slice it, foreclosures haven't hit the market yet--that's why housing inventory looks so "good". How long can those places stay vacant before they become albatrosses around bank necks? How long before that translates back into a crisis the Fed is talking itself out of?
The setup for the rollback is being played out, but PM is suffering nonetheless.
GLTA, and let's hope that the FOMC doesn't start to believe its own manipulated figures. But that hope isn't springing eternal. This is the same Bernookie that said don't worry be happy in 2007 about housing. How many times can he get it wrong? 100%
Jan 28 8:30 AM Durable Orders Dec - 2.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.7%
Jan 28 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Dec - 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% -
Jan 28 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Dec - 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% -
Jan 29 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Nov - 5.0% 5.2% 4.3% -
Jan 29 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Jan - 61.0 65.1 65.1 -
Jan 30 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 01/26 - NA NA 7.0% -
Jan 30 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Jan - 175K 175K 215K -
Jan 30 8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q4 - 0.2% 1.0% 3.1% -
Jan 30 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4 - 1.5% 1.6% 2.7% -
Jan 30 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 01/26 - NA NA 2.813M -
Jan 30 2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision Jan - 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% -
Jan 31 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Jan - NA NA 34.4% -
Jan 31 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/26 - 365K 345K 330K -
Jan 31 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/19 - 3200K 3200K 3157K -
Jan 31 8:30 AM Personal Income Dec - 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% -
Jan 31 8:30 AM Personal Spending Dec - 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% -
Jan 31 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Dec - 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -
Jan 31 8:30 AM Employment Cost Index Q4 - 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% -
Jan 31 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Jan - 50.0 50.5 48.9 51.6
Jan 31 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 01/26 - NA NA -172 bcf -
Feb 1 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jan - 195K 180K 155K -
Feb 1 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jan - 215K 193K 168K -
Feb 1 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Jan - 7.7% 7.7% 7.8% -
Feb 1 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jan - 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% -
Feb 1 8:30 AM Average Workweek Jan - 34.5 34.5 34.5 -
Feb 1 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Jan - 70.5 71.4 71.3 -
Feb 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Jan - 49.5 50.5 50.7 -
Feb 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending Dec - 0.3% 0.5% -0.3% -
Feb 1 2:00 PM Auto Sales Jan - NA NA 5.5M -
Feb 1 2:00 PM Truck Sales Jan - NA NA 6.5M
Let's see if we'll get away with this. 150K newly employed, kind of cruddy, and nobody will remember the Bernank said in 2009, the uptick in jobs growth will auger people coming back to the work force who just gave up, so that overhang needs explaining, so, uh, hmmmmm--we had some tepid growth and sure enough the unemployment ticked up to 7.9--what do we do, what do we do. Can't revise the % of unemployed, I think we did that last time, or was it the job number?
I got an idea, I got an idea!!! to keep the party going, see, what we'll say is unemployment for Last couple months was SHY 130,000 bodies, yeah YEAH, we were wrong!! The economy is actually ticking upward with 200K job growth!
That will fool the market, that will fool industry into thinking somebody is hiring to get a jump on the recovery, and may actually make a few businesses "catch up" with the newly employed who are potential customers!!! YEAH! YEAH!! We save the stock market and fool the rest of industry into thinking they are months BEHIND hiring, so let's see if they spring for some new jobs next time.
After all, it's a virtual world out there, and money is made out of paper.
They'll believe anything out there.
The cringe before the binge? Silver off a hair when all other PM are rocking and rolling positive. Waiting for the employment stats as the elephant in the room, the market is making big bets this is going positive. Already the 5+% this January is pointing to, according to voodoo pundits who ignore the degradation of the dollar pending the buying of bonds with printed money.
0830 everyone holds their breath for numbers which have no meaning except to those who play the market like the big casino.
I'll have another stack of silver chips please.
Silver chips, hmmm? Are they edible?
Speaking of edible, Since my wife almost singlehandedly led us out of the great recession, I am starting what the repukes want to do. We're starting our own austerity program at our Super Bowl party.
I'm pouring Absolut Vodka into the empty Grey Goose bottles and into the freezer they go.
Walmart brand cranberry juice into the Ocean Spray bottles I saved for this occasion
This year the pigs in blankets will actually be made of pig as the Cohen's Brand is double the price..
I bring stuff to a local meal on wheels place, The local bakery is donating all leftover bread, cake and rolls to the local charity.The delivery will be a little light this time.
No rib eyes or steak burgers this year. We'll grill spam.
And if anyone has a headache, I bought 2 for one bottles of Aspirin that have expiration dates of 11 --2012 I think they'll still work.
Just doin my part.
Pending home sales are down as the improving market has taken the spooked out of potential sellers who are waiting for reflation. You'd think that would affect new home builders to move right in, but far be it from logic to take the field, they're off a couple percent. All the yammering about stopping buying bonds and mortgage notes is designed to make the market skittish and PM to travel southward, and the FOMC will issue its normal yawn, and the notes will show the usual suspects, about four weeks from now, all in lamentation about what that is going to do with free markets.
Ignore the crocodile tears and watch what they do, not say, but believe me, the dips should be bought, and the blips should be sold.
Everybody forgot SANDY storm in the wake of SANDY hook shootings, and decided the contraction in GDP in the 4th QTR was some cataclysmic event. It didn't even pass the so what test. Still, it helped PM adroitly, so why complain?