4-9 FEB Eco Calendar: Versus last week, a snoozer. Time to dig out sequestration issues
Last week 150K newly employed competed with an uptick to 7.9% unemployed meant fabricating they've been shy so many employed fourth quarter, the economy is actually ticking upward with 200K job growth!
That fooled the stock market, that may fool industry into thinking somebody is hiring to get a jump on the recovery, and may actually make a few businesses want to hire to "catch up".
A virtuous cycle built on a virtual world.
See how that works? This week looks like fairly tepid numbers to talk about except for initial and continuing claims, and maybe down tick in inventories after the XMAS season, downward pressure should be light, upward pressure as the little guy allegedly reconsiders the market as we approach peaks except for the NASDRECK, which is still couple thousand points shy of those insane 2001 numbers.
Is it a wonder I like the Russell 2000?
Feb 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Dec - 3.0% 2.4% 0.0% -
Feb 5 10:00 AM ISM Services Jan - 55.5 55.6 56.1 -
Feb 6 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 02/02 - NA NA -8.1% -
Feb 6 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 02/02 - NA NA 5.947M -
Feb 7 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/02 - 365K 360K 368K -
Feb 7 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/26 - 3200K 3200K 3198K -
Feb 7 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q4 - -1.5% -1.2% 2.9% -
Feb 7 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs Q4 - 3.0% 2.4% -1.9% -
Feb 7 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 02/02 - NA NA -194 bcf -
Feb 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec - $10.0B $11.9B $16.0B -
Feb 8 8:30 AM Trade Balance Dec - -$42.5B -$45.4B -$48.7B -
Feb 8 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Dec - 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% -
Claims is the name of the game. Those upward revisions to the job count last year have NOT been explained, at all. I suspect those numbers are pump priming to keep to the table of end of 13 to stop the bond buying and '14 to start pumping up overnight rates.
Which will puncture the market faster than you can say no doc loans. Houses are recovering only because folks are not putting them up for sale, woe be it if new housing tries to fill that gap, we'll never get out from 2006-7 prices in our lifetimes.
Silver starts off in the morning and finishes up by end of day. Easy trade for SLV, not so easy for SLW--deals are problematic.
This thread keeps disappearing faster than people can mistake the power of government. Can't find it without searching for "calendar".
So be it. I can't tell you how many posts showing Americans don't have a clue as to how the economy works or what government can or can't do, blame the President for not "fixing" the economy. That's like blaming the biggest fish in the sea for the tides. The ocean doesn't care, and the fish just stinks.
The economy is "improving" because car sales have replace home buying as the largest ticket item on America's shopping list. Think about it. It's the second biggest purchase, and you know it is going to depreciate no matter what you buy, unless it's a classic. At least a house won't disappoint you by not continuing to go "up", which means in English, redefined in ever decreasing dollars 6% year over year, like all commodities since about 1973.
ISM should show a seasonal hit, but not much, if cars are the example that replaces houses as the thing purchased big ticket. New car prices already outstrip home prices in many parts of the country. You can get some pretty decent digs in the South for $120K.
Google offers $3.1M to anyone who can hack Chrome, and they probably hacked the Chrome site, because good luck, you can't go there and download Chorme anymore. At least, I can't.
Why wave the red flag in front of the bull? Even Congress got it at the last minure in Jan. And saying Congress is doing anything competently, or more than private industry this instance, is saying a lot.
With employment numbers revised upward for the past three months, best take note that three quarters of bogus hiring numbers will allow the Fed to raise irates, so be forewarned.
See how that works? Tell a fib, and watch the world follow that lure. Like all fish, it smells, but that is the nature of the new big lie. Hope that others follow. You can get elected President that way.