personally, I think we're in for a wild ride going forward. whenever the Fed is actively printing & not somehow "sterilizing" QE, silver & gold have been quite volatile. from late 2010 thru the first half of 2011 was insane & that increased the Fed's balance by "only" 25%. QEforever has already increased it by over 3% since the first of the year. even last year when the Fed's balance sheet was nearly unchanged we saw the price of silver average $31 with moves of about 13% to the upside & downside. I'm thinking we could see average $40 silver with moves of +/- 20% or more this year from there. but hey, that's just my opinion & EVERYONE has one... right?
$40 mean average with 20% swings, so a channel of, say, $32 on the low side and $48 on the high side and no chance for further price appreciation? I'm somewhat doubtful, but even so if your forecast did turn out to be accurate we'd still be sitting pretty here in SLW.