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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Feb 19, 2013 6:22 AM Flag

    Lance

    Hey Lance,

    I do remember our discussion, and it looks like you had the target down near $28/$29. Good job.

    After I run the numbers, each trade has a probability of success, a percent return, and a period over which the transaction will likely prove to be right. I did get numbers below $30, but up until late week before last, the probability for this was negligible, and only around Friday 8th did the numbers you theorize become a reality to me.

    What now? I went back and saw how those guys you quoted got the $29.71 number. I just simply missed it. I'm playing it by ear now, just pulling on my trading skills.

    Good trading
    chem

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Chem,
      Of the elements you mention, it's always the timing ("period over which the transaction will likely prove to be right") that's hardest for me. I trade on longer term than you do just because I'm not as quick or exact as you are. But I took profits on my puts and rolled over to a later expiration to give myself some more time and I still expect high 28s. I haven't seen anything yet to change my mind.

      • 1 Reply to lancekoliver
      • Lance,
        You'll never lose taking a profits. I have the high 28.xx as a target for silver too, the problem is the the rollover from March to May's contract is going to maybe prevent me from catching the 28 target. volume is starting to transfer over to May. May's open interest is 80% of march's OI. I might just shut it down for the rest of the week until we start trading may completely. if rollover wasn't happening i think the 28 would have hit today.
        good trading
        chem

 
SLW
27.25+0.72(+2.71%)Jul 11 4:03 PMEDT

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