Yahoo publishes a 2 year old economic profile of SLW misleading to the extreme. I can't find the ignore button. Happi invents a new great term (Spamola) combining "spam" and "payola" to explain yahoo's on the take but we plebes to post urls easily. Last but not least, we now have a week of stuff to be worth posting about.
The market is high enough to be really news sensitive. That's why the prospect of dissent in FOMC ranks will roil markets Tuesday morning, and pop into Thursday post FOMC release Wednesday. Housing starts will be up because that is filling the vacuum left by investors and banks who aren't letting those foreclosed homes back to market--they join artificially low interest rates in creating our next bubble, which has about 20% to run before it too gets into trouble so profound, it is easily the next downturn in the wings. Claims will be down ever so slightly but overcelebrated. And I'll be trading my brains out on all these machinations.
Mar 18 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Mar - 48 48 46 -
Mar 19 8:30 AM Housing Starts Feb - 905K 910K 890K -
Mar 19 8:30 AM Building Permits Feb - 915K 924K 904K 925K
Mar 20 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 03/16 - NA NA -4.7% -
Mar 20 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/16 - NA NA 2.624M -
Mar 20 12:30 PM FOMC Rate Decision Mar - NA NA 0.25% -
Mar 20 2:00 PM FOMC Rate Decision Mar - 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% -
Mar 21 8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/16 - 345K 345K 332K -
Mar 21 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 03/09 - 3100K 3065K 3024K -
Mar 21 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Jan - NA NA 0.6% -
Mar 21 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Feb - 5.00M 5.00M 4.92M -
Mar 21 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Mar - 2.0 -3.0 -12.5 -
Mar 21 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Feb - 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% -
Mar 21 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 03/16 - NA NA -145
a 7 BILLION DOLLAR fiasco in Cyprus was all the market needed tonight to go bonkers and down the futures go one percent across the board. Silver goes up 3/4% but the night is young.
Looks like the cringe before the binge is off and running with an extra kick from tit on a boarhog Cyprus.
It's a slow news day isn't it.
The CYPRUS robbery of 6-10% depositors money to pay for a bank bailout hangs over the market like a radioactive cloud hiding monsters as hideous as those in the movie "The Fog". Wholesale robbery of the innocent, and I mean innocent with respect to banking incompetency not how the folks earned their money. General market is off a half percent, the FOMC meeting starts today with the same profile of fist waggers against the lower interest rates and bond buying to get there, and the rest of the world goes insane on Thursday as we await the run on the banks. I wonder how many people can exist without having to draw off savings or checking accounts? I guess we're going to see.
Meantime silver is crashing again. And those on the sidelines with all their trillions not in the market feel read good today.
Unless their money is in a bank. I suggest you invest in mattress futures, because at these interest rates, 1/2 percent minus 6-10%, however unlikely here in the US, doesn't look very good from a risk profile standpoint.
Housing starts trump CYPRUS for the first day of the FOMC meeting, which will hold rates steady until somebody leaks dissension in the ranks, and then watch the weeble wobble thereafter. SLW defies gravity, as silver is off 1/3% as the dollar declines (!) and that is represented in SLV not SLW for no reason at all.
The debt in question in CYPRUS represents about three days worth of Fed bond buying, a gnat. The grawing problem is that stealing somebody's bankbook is as egregious as it gets, so obnoxious, I don't care if Hannibal Lector banks there. For now, the vote in CYPRUS is damned if they do, same if the don't. The contagion of bankbook confiscation as a means of righting bank injustices smacks of hiding that can of worms inside the complete dissolution of banks as places to put money.
I bet Scottrade and Etrade would be happy though. I wonder if they have branches in Cyprus.
And the market is now ignoring CYPRUS as it should, $6 Billion a tit on a boarhog, two days worth of Bond Buying binge money here in the US. The horror show is that the European powers that be would allow, even back raping depositors in the most egregious trampling of rights since the Great Train Robbery. We learned that the banks ability to use other people's money doesn't give them the right to steal it, and here we have the pols in Europe talking as if that is a solution, and the talks about a trade off later with heavy hitters like Moscow, let alone Brits who stash their "401K" money there. These depositors are not bond, or stock holders, they're innocent passerby's that are being mugged by the EU for money.
It's so awful it even has felon Henry Blodget fuming in righteous indignation. Meanwhile futures are up in the general market and silver doesn't know what to do with itself, having gone virtually nowhere to speak of during this "crisis".
With about 7 million homes off the market and bank owned, or rented by bottom feeding private investors, it looks like there is little inventory left to be bought in the housing market. That overhang is unseen to be reported on when housing stalls out in about 30 months, given Bernanke's successor keeps pedal to the metal with low irates.
Forget he's leaving in January? I didn't and the market will get a jolt when somebody reminds the sleeping public that is a fait accompli.
In the meantime, up is up, and the trend is your friend, and Bernanke pours oil on waters at 1230 and 2PM EST. Until somebody mentions there are hawks or two that poo poo low irates.
Then here we go again.
One more point. Remember the Sherlock Holmes story where the dog *didn't* bark, and that was significant? Well, have you notice that the US, champion protector of the rule of law, liberty, democracy and rights of the individual, has been almost mute in regard to the outrageous behavior of the EU/IMF in Cyprus...?
Methinks they don't protest at all.
With all due respect, the market should be freaking out over cyprus. One of the largest western powers just sent a message to plebs all over the planet: what you think is yours is actually ours, and we will break laws and contracts at the drop of a hate to keep us and ours in power. Furthermore, countries like Spain and New Zealand are waking up to the fact that similar moves are being contemplated there as well, as evidenced by recent changes to their laws. Changes that took place *prior* to this mess in cyprus. If they aren't getting edgy, they're brain dead.
The true impact of cyprus will be evident in coming weeks, when their banks attempt to open, and are instantly drained by freaked out customers. And if there isn't a similar reaction in other member states of the EU, by citizens who are looking at the same idiots who tried to do this in cyprus, it will be a miracle. We will be lucky if the contagion does not spread here.
It would be hard to design a series of missteps that would result in the collapse of world banking systems that would be as effective as what the EU/IMF bone-heads have given us. Almost makes me wonder if that wasn't their goal all along...
Looks like continuing claims and existing home sales takes the lead. Home should be picking up slightly, which is bullish because prices are stabilizing, and claims all they have to do is hold, and the market will get a positive bias that should counteract the Cyprus nonsense.
We need goldilocks numbers, just enough improvement week to week, without upsetting the applecart of low rates and bondbuying stimulus, Whether they work or not, the stock buyers look for those tea leaves not to get shaken, and when Bernanke's retirement looms in about three months--the spit will hit the fan.
Bernanke talks retirement leaving cleaning up his mess to the third guy on a match. In the military the third guy on a match is the one the enemy finally gets a bead on, and shoots.
He says he's dispensable--after his don't worry be happy rant on the eve of the real estate meltdown many would agree. He's leaving the hard job, overseeing interest rate pops in the 2015, to some poor shmmuck Obama nominates.
In the meantime Europe is contracting, silver is all over the place around flatline, and the 830 time frame economic news about existing home sales has to meet a headwind of an every so slight pop in mortgage rates. If folks are gearing up for the spring selling season there will be a pop. If not, the Cyprus lunacy is off the table until Tuesday end of bank holiday, and I for one am waiting to see the long lines at the banks of all the little piggies to tell me what is in store for next week.
Gas for cash deal is falling on deaf Russian ears. Maybe we should buy in, we could use the fuel.
Got housing numbers that blew away estimates (never mind pick up in inventory means waking the sleeping giant of bank foreclosures and rentals waiting for flip mania) but nothing offset the ominous tit on a boarhog Cyprus, which has even the US asking, can it happen HERE?
Well of course it can, that is why we have 2nd Amendment rights, but we're still on the side of allegedly protecting savings from the banks-since about 1933. Now to the tune of newly minted $250K, and $500K if you're in a stock account. (SIPC).
Still the market is cringing away, SLW beats earnings and tacks on about a buck and a half--and silver tacks on about 1.25%--although about 1/2% that luster is disappearing overnight.
Slow news day means Cyprus deadline of Monday and Bank Holiday ending Tuesday means it is going to be wild in the streets if the Russians don't buy the gas for cash proffered by Cyprus, and kiddies, it doesn't look too good. General market futures are off a hair.
Cyprus walls off Greece and futures roar, SLW too, from last night's performance numbers. Silver is backing off 3/4% though, so it may be bargain time.
Monday lines form outside Cyprus banks, and there may be blood in the streets, but hey, it's Friday, that's a long way off! Right? No?
No. Selloff this afternoon as the Cypriots don't plan on ruining their weekend with trying to bailout their country.