May 29-24 Economic Clambake: FOMC at the mouth 22 May, Claims Thursday
Bernookie 8AM today allegedly precursing Wednesday at 10, with an FOMC at the mouth by the assembled confused economic blatherers we can't ignore as the lemmings trample onward. The risk trade is on, silver and gold are being trounced, Monday overnight rates are cringing by three percent.
Words you don't want to hear, if you're long without calls sold against and protective puts bought with half the proceeds, you're trading ideology for common sense. Longs in silver are right, just don't get caught dead right. Vent your spleen, but you're just diverting yourself from reality.
The trade is not with you. Live to fight another day, at the least. Here's the week of delusion below, those acting on the delusion may be nuts, but there are too many of them. Think "Walking Dead" mob scene.
It ain't right, but it's reality.
Monday May 20 Bernanke Speaks 8:00 AM ET
Monday May 20 Chicago Fed National Activity Index 8:30 AM ET
Monday May 20 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 AM ET, 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
Tuesday May 21 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET
Tuesday May 21 Redbook 8:55 AM ET
Tuesday May 21 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
Wednesday May 22 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 05/18 - NA NA -7.3% -
Wednesday May 22 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Apr - 5.05M 4.98M 4.92M -
Wednesday May 22 10:00 AM Bernanke Testimony - - - - - -
Wednesday May 22 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 05/18 - NA NA -0.624M -
Wednesday May 22 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes 5/1 - - - - -
Thursday May 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/18 - 350K 348K 360K -
Thursday May 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 05/11 - 3015K 3005K 3009K -
Thursday May 23 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Mar - NA NA 0.7% -
Thursday May 23 10:00 AM New Home Sales Apr - 425K 425K 417K -
Thursday May 23 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 05/18 - NA NA NA -
Friday May 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders Apr - -1.5% 1.6% -6.9% -5.8%
Friday May 24 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Apr - -0.5% 0.5% -2.9% -1.5%
Now's the time I wish there wasn't so much transparency--the market gets to interpret every what if drill as if--and pulled a stunning reversal after the Fed chairman spoke this morning. Waiting for the reversal to reverse at the meeting notes? Best wait for the meeting next June.
I think that's supposed to be 20-24 May, whatever, but the deal is, will the "weakening" dollar today help silver and gold. Doesn't look that way. Grads are 8.6% unemployed, and the last three years have disappeared into Mom's basement where they feel entitled to room and board. 22.4% unemployment, nice they have a plan to unwind. Sometime in 2017 if they're smart.